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  Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers
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Author Topic: Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers  (Read 19525 times)
motomonkey
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« Reply #25 on: March 19, 2008, 10:55:04 am »

My position is that this will cost Obama the Democratic nomination.  Neither Clinton nor Obama will have 2025 delegates.  The super delegates will decide and go with Clinton  to win the general election after she wins decisively in the majority of the remaining 10 primaries.

Obama does not yet have the nomination.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2008, 10:57:46 am »

My position is that this will cost Obama the Democratic nomination.  Neither Clinton nor Obama will have 2025 delegates.  The super delegates will decide and go with Clinton  to win the general election after she wins decisively in the majority of the remaining 10 primaries.

Obama does not yet have the nomination.

Ok, fair enough.

I would respond that Muskie and Dean were felled for things they actually said or did, while Obama's problem is one of association. In addition, those both happened at the same time in the calendar year, but far earlier in the process. That was still in the Iowa-NH period, whereas most delegates have been assigned and Clinton would need to get a ridiculously high percentage of Democrats, something which does not appear to be happening following Wright. Finally, Dean was on his way out before the scream, that was just the nail in the coffin.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2008, 10:58:00 am »

It also won't help that the Republicans nominated the best candidate to attract those working class Democrats and independents. This is horrible news for the Democrats going into the general in which the Democrats should win.

Right. There are so many voters who would come out for Hillary in a state like Ohio...but would stay home or jump to McCain if Obama were the nominee. I know it's early...but a new Ohio poll shows Hillary edging McCain by 1 pt...while McCain decently beats Obama. A guy like Obama, an attractive candidate...with the same views as Clinton...can't have unstoppable 11-state wins...play ads every 5 minutes...campaign for two weeks non-stop...have the entire country say Ohio is a "close race" and then suddenly be shunned with an 11 pt defeat. There was an underlying cause...and sadly, we know what it was.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2008, 12:59:38 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2008, 01:09:10 pm by Michael Z »

This isn't terminal. Incidents in March don't matter in the GE.
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Tell that to Howard Dean.  Here is a link to a CBS News report dated Jan 23, 2004 where Dick Meyer reports that the scream "is no big deal" and doesn't understand why the media is latching on to the story.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/23/opinion/meyer/main595508.shtml

Or what about Ed Muskies, March 4, 1972 "tears?" 

It isn't fair, but when the media and the public get connected on one of these things it doesn't go away.  My opinion is we are on the front-end not the back-end of the Wright - Obama story.

Lot's of front runners fail in the spring of election year. 

I was actually gonna address this point sooner, including the Muskie comparison, but felt it was unnecessary, but alas:

Firstly, unlike the Dean scream and Muskie's bawling, the Wright affair is guilt by association. Secondly, the way Obama has handled it has been marginally different from Dean and Muskie, and the speech has pulled large parts of the mainstream media back behind him. Thirdly, Dean and Muskie were never media darlings the way Obama is, and thus didn't get much of a free ride. Fourthly, it's very telling that the people here and elsewhere saying that Obama's "done" or "finished" are the exact same people who've laying into this guy from Day One (with the exception of someone like MODU, who's actually been very rational and objective throughout and doesn't get bogged down in emotions the way some people here do) - now they've found something they can finally latch on to, they're just jumping all over it like kids in a candystore - so I'm inclined to take their words with a pinch of salt. Fifth, Dean and Muskie were pretty s***y candidates compared to Obama, who has a mass following that some people have, admittedly not entirely without credibility, compared to a sort of cult. Dean did have a lot of appeal with the Democratic base, but nothing comparable to Obama's support.

While I won't try and indulge in the kind of smugness and self-satisfaction that some people here are guilty of, I will be confident enough to detract them and say that, yes, Obama will still win the nomination, he'll still become President, and the Wright issue will be remembered as something comparable to the Gennifer Flowers affair - a major issue that did set a campaign off kilter, but was eventually overcome through external factors and the candidate's overall popularity. But at the end of the day there's nothing you nor I can really say with confidence until the final numbers are in.

BTW, as far as GE polls are concerned, I'd take them with a pinch of salt, bearing in mind that a lot of polls predicted a convincing Dukakis victory this time in 88, for instance. Anything can happen between now and November.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2008, 01:10:22 pm »

Firstly, unlike the Dean scream and Muskie's bawling, the Wright affair is guilt by association. Secondly, the way Obama has handled it has been marginally different from Dean and Muskie, and the speech has pulled large parts of the mainstream media back behind him.

Muskie's alledged crying happend during a press conference in which he was trying to defend himself and his wife from various vile smears put about in part (though this wasn't known at the time) by CREEP. By no sane standard (whether he cried or not) was anything that happend to Muskie even slightly his own fault.

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Seeing as Muskie was basically destroyed by the media, this is obviously true.

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If Muskie was such a sh**tty candidate, why did Nixon go to such lengths to eliminate him?
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Michael Z
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« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2008, 01:12:25 pm »

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If Muskie was such a sh**tty candidate, why did Nixon go to such lengths to eliminate him?

I was using hyperbole to make a point. Plus I was talking in comparative terms. Wink Tongue
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motomonkey
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« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2008, 01:45:08 pm »

Britain 33:  I agree with you that Muskie and Dean were earlier in the cycle and you make good points.  This would by comparison be a bigger fall happening later in the cycle.

Michael Z:  I have not been against Obama.  I began the season as a Gore supporter and actually voted for Obama in the Texas primary.  The Rev. Wright association and Obama's response has caused me to withdraw my support. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2008, 02:30:46 pm »


If Muskie was such a sh**tty candidate, why did Nixon go to such lengths to eliminate him?

Because Nixon could.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2008, 03:09:20 pm »

McCain has gained on Obama in the polls this month, but he's done the same on Clinton and by the same amount.
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agcatter
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« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2008, 03:10:43 pm »

I voted for Hillary in the Texas primary also.  Two reasons - to finish off the Clintons and because I knew he'd be the weaker candidate in the fall.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #35 on: March 19, 2008, 03:31:20 pm »

Look at Reuter's latest poll numbers showing Clinton pulling even with Obama nationally. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1824791220080319?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10112


And more, http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/10525

One week ago:  Obama 50% - Clinton 44%  (Gallup)
Today:  Obama 45% - Clinton 47%

And Rev. Wright is viewed as racially devisive and hurting the Obama Campaign http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/people2/just_8_have_favorable_opinion_of_pastor_jeremiah_wright


Obama's numbers will continue to erode.  Clinton will chase and catch him like a hunter chasing a fatally wounded deer. 

Obama is running on a platform of "Change."  How are we supposed to believe he can "change" America and the way Washington works when he can't even change the mind of his pastor and friend of 20 years? 

How indeed... Tongue
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Saff
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« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2008, 04:17:15 pm »

I voted for Hillary in the Texas primary also.  Two reasons - to finish off the Clintons and because I knew he'd be the weaker candidate in the fall.

You voted for her to finish her? What?
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MODU
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« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2008, 04:24:49 pm »

I voted for Hillary in the Texas primary also.  Two reasons - to finish off the Clintons and because I knew he'd be the weaker candidate in the fall.

You voted for her to finish her? What?

Makes sense to me.  *laughs*
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agcatter
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« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2008, 04:34:47 pm »

Oops - meant Obama.

LOL  At least I know you guys are reading my posts.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #39 on: March 19, 2008, 08:14:07 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2008, 08:18:05 pm by Michael Z »

Michael Z:  I have not been against Obama.  I began the season as a Gore supporter and actually voted for Obama in the Texas primary.  The Rev. Wright association and Obama's response has caused me to withdraw my support. 

I stand corrected, but rest assured that my comment wasn't directly aimed at you, but rather some regs here, most of who have blue avatars, and who may as well fill in a pre-prepared form before commenting on Obama...
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #40 on: March 19, 2008, 10:01:41 pm »

One thing to keep in mind, the Democrats want to win in November.

If Obama, due to a series of negative reports, beliefs, and actual events, is seen as a sure loser to McCain, who knows what the Democrats will decide, even if Obama does have a lead in committed delegates.

The Democrats want the White House back, and they are not about to let a little thing like committed delegates get in the way.

If Obama is damaged goods, the Democrats will no longer want him.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #41 on: March 19, 2008, 10:05:42 pm »

Actually, if we can't win in November, we'll concentrate on modernizing the party. That's what the GOPPERs did in 1964. Sure, they were going to lose, but they started a movement.
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J. J.
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« Reply #42 on: March 19, 2008, 10:12:28 pm »

One thing to keep in mind, the Democrats want to win in November.

If Obama, due to a series of negative reports, beliefs, and actual events, is seen as a sure loser to McCain, who knows what the Democrats will decide, even if Obama does have a lead in committed delegates.

The Democrats want the White House back, and they are not about to let a little thing like committed delegates get in the way.

If Obama is damaged goods, the Democrats will no longer want him.

I think it will have to be shown that he's damaged goods.  If so, I can see this scenario:

1.  Obama drops below a net lead of 110 elected delegates.

2.  The convention seats the 110 MI/FL delegates (which is within the rules).  It is done with the consent of the super delegates.

3.  The Clinton forces proclaim that Hillary has a majority of the elected delegates.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #43 on: March 19, 2008, 10:16:48 pm »

No dice.
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J. J.
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« Reply #44 on: March 19, 2008, 10:26:48 pm »


And why not, because your candidate won't win it?

According to the Green Pages, Obama is up by 156 elected delegates.  Do you think his lead will shrink by 46 delegates? Wink

 (I do, and I've seen this as a problem for a few months.)
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elcorazon
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« Reply #45 on: March 19, 2008, 10:32:21 pm »

J.J. is quite likely right.  If Obama's numbers don't improve, Hillary picks up delegates from here on out and then there is a reason to give in to FL and MI so that the supers can justify going with hillary.

Obama's speech has left me not completely writing him off, but I still think he's on life support at this point.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #46 on: March 19, 2008, 10:33:45 pm »

Michigan won't be seated as is. So you can get that idea out of your head. Most likely will be split 50/50. Florida is a  50/50 chance of only seating half the delegates with the Jan. 29th result or seated with full delegates.

I don't know why some people think everyone will be hunky-dory with seating MI/FL delegates to overrule the REAL elected delegates. I think it's just a fantasy of many.
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J. J.
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« Reply #47 on: March 19, 2008, 10:55:06 pm »

Michigan won't be seated as is. So you can get that idea out of your head. Most likely will be split 50/50. Florida is a  50/50 chance of only seating half the delegates with the Jan. 29th result or seated with full delegates.

I don't know why some people think everyone will be hunky-dory with seating MI/FL delegates to overrule the REAL elected delegates. I think it's just a fantasy of many.

Not if Hillary has the majority at the convention, including the super delegates, and would get a majority of the elected delegates with MI/FL they will most likely be seated.  And it's all within the rules.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #48 on: March 19, 2008, 11:10:10 pm »

Would the DNC do that?
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #49 on: March 19, 2008, 11:31:51 pm »

Once the uncommitted in Michigan are seated, Hillary will not have a 110 delegate lead in those states together.
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