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Author Topic: Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers  (Read 19002 times)
agcatter
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« on: March 19, 2008, 08:34:31 am »

Too late for this to help Hillary get the nomination.  He's too far ahead.

Unfortunately fpr Obama, the GE is another story.  Working class Democrats and independents got to peak under the mask.  They didn't like what they saw.
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agcatter
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2008, 08:55:41 am »

I don't think Obama has anything to worry about as far as getting the nomination.

Clinton will narrow the lead in delegates by around 40 by June.

She will narrow substantially the lead Obama has in popular vote.

Remaining primaries:

Obama wins Oregon by 5 pts, NC by 5,  narrow win in South Dakota and Montana - all much less than he'd have won by pre Wright coming out of the closet.

Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 12 - 14 pts, Indiana by 8 or 9.  Massive blowout wins in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Obama is limping to the finish line and is close enough to stumble over ahead of Clinton.

Wright hurt him badly among blue collar Democrats and independents and, as I said, bad news for him in the general - in particular, the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2008, 09:33:23 am »

Ben, I didn't say it was terminal.  I said he was hurt in those states.  These are three states loaded with working class lunchpale Democrats - the weakest part of Obama's Democratic coalition.  It just got weaker when the Wright videos came out.  Don't forget that these three states are states that George Wallace scored in double digits running on a third party the vast majority of which came from blue collar Democrats.  I don't think any objective observor disputes that Obama took a hit with this demographic.  The only question is how much.
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agcatter
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2008, 09:58:15 am »

Bye bye Florida.  If Obama even had a chance there anyway which I doubt.
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agcatter
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2008, 03:10:43 pm »

I voted for Hillary in the Texas primary also.  Two reasons - to finish off the Clintons and because I knew he'd be the weaker candidate in the fall.
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agcatter
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2008, 04:34:47 pm »

Oops - meant Obama.

LOL  At least I know you guys are reading my posts.
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