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  Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers  (Read 19532 times)
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
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Posts: 14,173


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

« on: March 19, 2008, 08:32:36 am »

Even if Obama drops 10, 20 points in the polls, even if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, even if Clinton wins every remaining contest 60%-40%, Obama still leads in delegates. Obama wins. Game over.

Momentum, national poll numbers, etc. mean nothing at this point. They are not relevant. The only important number is the delegate count and the ONLY way Clinton can win is by having a Superdelegate  coup... which isn't going to happen.

Obama has won. It's just a waiting game now. The sooner Clinton realizes this and gets out so we can start the healing process the better.
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Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,173


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2008, 08:42:35 am »

Obama has the delegate lead but cannot get to 2,025 needed in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton wins the remaining contests 60/40, the super delegates will enough evidence to justify going with Clinton. 



It doesn't matter. There is no way in hell the Superdelegates are going to pick Clinton after she loses the pledged delegates. It would rip the party in two and these Superdelegates are far more loyal to the party than they are to any one candidate.

Besides, a ton of Superdelegates just don't like the Clintons. There's a reason hundreds of them didn't jump on board back during the "Clinton is inevitable" phase.
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Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,173


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2008, 08:33:58 am »

Even if Obama drops 10, 20 points in the polls, even if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, even if Clinton wins every remaining contest 60%-40%, Obama still leads in delegates. Obama wins. Game over.

Momentum, national poll numbers, etc. mean nothing at this point. They are not relevant. The only important number is the delegate count and the ONLY way Clinton can win is by having a Superdelegate  coup... which isn't going to happen.

Obama has won. It's just a waiting game now. The sooner Clinton realizes this and gets out so we can start the healing process the better.

Ummm... no.  It's not game over.  If Clinton has the momentum going in then there will be no delegate "coup" because a vast majority of the Super Delegates have already declared their allegiance to Clinton.

"A vast majority of Super delegates have already declared their allegiance to Clinton"? I wasn't aware 35% counted as a "vast majority" these days.
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Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,173


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2009, 01:12:32 am »

I had forgotten how stupid people were during the primaries.
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