WV poll!
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Author Topic: WV poll!  (Read 5443 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: March 20, 2008, 10:25:52 AM »
Be here

Highlights:

*Clinton leads 55% to 27% with 18% undecided.
*Amongst those likely to vote, Clinton has an approval rating of 72%, Obama 53%
*A plurality think that Clinton would be the strongest candidate, while a plurality also think that Obama will win the nomination.
*Only 42% of Clinton voters are "somewhat likely" to vote for Obama if he's nominated and as many as 18% say they are "not very likely" to vote for him.
*53% think that the main issue in the election should be reducing the gap between the rich and the poor.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2008, 10:37:56 AM »
Of the decided voters that's 66-34 to Clinton. Looks like it's gonna be ugly there.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2008, 11:27:19 AM »
Although very slightly less ugly than I expected.
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agcatter
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2008, 11:31:47 AM »
2-1.  About what I expected.  The black population is what? 5%?

I'd say 65-34 final vote.  Kentucky will be a little better for Obama.  I'd say Clinton's ceiling there is the low 60s.  Call it 62- 37.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2008, 11:34:39 AM »
Al,

Where do you expect Obama's best areas to be?  You know, the ones he'll lose 3:2 instead of 3:1.
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bgwah
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2008, 11:48:15 AM »
Well, I was expecting Clinton >70 so maybe I should be happy. Undecided
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Ben.
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2008, 11:55:49 AM »
For Obama breaking 35 points will be good, should do better in KY (what format will the primary there take is it open? closed or just closed to republicans?).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2008, 12:15:10 PM »
Free state? Please.
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Jake
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2008, 01:22:05 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2008, 01:24:29 PM by Jake »
Quote from: Ben. on March 20, 2008, 11:55:49 AM
For Obama breaking 35 points will be good, should do better in KY (what format will the primary there take is it open? closed or just closed to republicans?).

WV is Independents and Democrats; Kentucky is just Democrats.

EDIT:

Clinton's target has to be 65%. Each district elects 6 delegates, meaning a 4-2 split is assured as she'll break 58.5% but not 75%. Statewide elects 10 delegates, meaning it'll split 6-4 unless she achieves 65%. All in all, should be either an 8 or 10 delegate gain out of the state.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2008, 04:46:40 PM »
will obama win any county in wv?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2008, 05:35:56 PM »

More importantly, how will Obama do in Logan County? Tongue
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2008, 05:39:07 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 20, 2008, 05:35:56 PM

More importantly, how will Obama do in Logan County? Tongue

probably slightly better than he will do in mingo county!

1 out of 4 residents in mingo county live below the poverty line!
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2008, 05:43:23 PM »

He might take Kanawana, probably at least one on the eastern panhandle and somewhere dominated by a college town.
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War on Want
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« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM »
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2008, 05:46:47 PM »
Quote from: Evilmexicandictator on March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.

yeah.  why not piss  money away!

maybe he send jeremiah wright out to west va to give those folks the audacity of hope!
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BRTD
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« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2008, 05:50:34 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 20, 2008, 05:46:47 PM
Quote from: Evilmexicandictator on March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.

yeah.  why not piss  money away!

maybe he send jeremiah wright out to west va to give those folks the audacity of hope!

Obama has plenty of money, the least of his worries. It's not like those states are so expensive to compete in anyway.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2008, 05:52:49 PM »
Quote from: Now We Rise And Are Everywhere on March 20, 2008, 05:50:34 PM
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 20, 2008, 05:46:47 PM
Quote from: Evilmexicandictator on March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.

yeah.  why not piss  money away!

maybe he send jeremiah wright out to west va to give those folks the audacity of hope!

Obama has plenty of money, the least of his worries. It's not like those states are so expensive to compete in anyway.

doesnt mean you should waste money.

most importantly he shouldnt waste time, that would be better suited elsewhere (ie. nc)

he could spend tons of money and time in wv, and it still wont have much impact on the results.
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SPQR
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2008, 05:54:01 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 20, 2008, 05:46:47 PM
Quote from: Evilmexicandictator on March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.

yeah.  why not piss  money away!

HE does not need to borrow himself money to continue campaigning.
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BRTD
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2008, 05:54:41 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 20, 2008, 05:52:49 PM
Quote from: Now We Rise And Are Everywhere on March 20, 2008, 05:50:34 PM
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 20, 2008, 05:46:47 PM
Quote from: Evilmexicandictator on March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.

yeah.  why not piss  money away!

maybe he send jeremiah wright out to west va to give those folks the audacity of hope!

Obama has plenty of money, the least of his worries. It's not like those states are so expensive to compete in anyway.

doesnt mean you should waste money.

most importantly he shouldnt waste time, that would be better suited elsewhere (ie. nc)

he could spend tons of money and time in wv, and it still wont have much impact on the results.

WV is after NC.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2008, 06:49:01 PM »
Kentucky is closed? Oh boy...having a semi-closed primary in West Virginia shouldn't make much of a difference, since there aren't any Republicans there anyway... Wink

This is one of those places where I'd expect a black candidate to over-poll. But we'll see, those numbers look reasonable to me.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2008, 06:54:10 PM »
Quote from: Evilmexicandictator on March 20, 2008, 05:44:51 PM
Slightly better than I expected. Obama should hit WV, and KY hard even though he can't win. He needs to make inroads with Working Class Whites, and that would be the way to do it.

This entire weeked and into next week hes stopping across West Virginia, Oregon, and North Carolina. Nothing planned for Pennsylvania yet tho...sadly :/
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2008, 07:14:44 PM »
Quote from: Gustaf on March 20, 2008, 06:49:01 PM
This is one of those places where I'd expect a black candidate to over-poll. But we'll see, those numbers look reasonable to me.

More likely is that the undecideds break overwhelmingly the other way.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2008, 07:15:27 PM »
Quote from: Citizen Al on March 21, 2008, 07:14:44 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on March 20, 2008, 06:49:01 PM
This is one of those places where I'd expect a black candidate to over-poll. But we'll see, those numbers look reasonable to me.

More likely is that the undecideds break overwhelmingly the other way.

Yeah, well, that was pretty much what I meant. Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2008, 07:15:53 PM »

If Obama were white he'd still be getting trashed in WV.
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BRTD
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2008, 07:16:49 PM »
Quote from: Citizen Al on March 21, 2008, 07:15:53 PM

If Obama were white he'd still be getting trashed in WV.

Considering her husband's economic policies I don't see much reason for WV to love Hillary.
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