Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Person Man]

So, she nets 15. She needs 20. Too bad, so sad.

[Joe Biden 2020]

What do you expect with the level of bitterness in the next two weeks?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lancaster is 84% in and Obama still leads. Rob owned Phil big time.

[Verily]

I doubt Obama is winning is the white vote in Delaware County.  There's nearly 20% black population there and a still sizable Republican registration, and as I said before - they bleached the black parts out of that CD (e.g. Chester (the city))

That last part to come in (the recent 22% that bumped it up to 55% Obama) was the city of Chester. Obama led 51-49 before that, in an area that's about as black as CD-7 overall (like BRTD said, about 7-8%). And that's ignoring the Chester County parts of CD-7, where Obama was probably stronger.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt Obama is winning is the white vote in Delaware County.  There's nearly 20% black population there and a still sizable Republican registration, and as I said before - they bleached the black parts out of that CD (e.g. Chester (the city))

That last part to come in (the recent 22% that bumped it up to 55% Obama) was the city of Chester. Obama led 51-49 before that, in an area that's about as black as CD-7 overall (like BRTD said, about 7-8%). And that's ignoring the Chester County parts of CD-7, where Obama was probably stronger.

Alright, we'll get out the slide rule and measuring tape soon enough...

[True Democrat]

If it helps on PA-18, it does not include the city of Pittsburgh at all (nor does it include the city of Washington).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm almost certain PA-4 will be just +1 for Hillary. She got "only" 60% in the Allegheny part of the district, and the rest of the district is just barely above or around 70% for her.

[12th Doctor]

I'm almost certain PA-4 will be just +1 for Hillary. She got "only" 60% in the Allegheny part of the district, and the rest of the district is just barely above or around 70% for her.

A lot of yuppies and suburbanites up there.  Your kinda people... and Obama's kind as well.

[Verily]

I'm almost certain PA-4 will be just +1 for Hillary. She got "only" 60% in the Allegheny part of the district, and the rest of the district is just barely above or around 70% for her.

All right, I believed Sam when he corrected me

PA-18 is probably C+3, not C+1. PA-4, you're right, is definitely C+1. Makes no difference, still C+15 overall.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also Hillary has 63% in the Allegheny part of PA-18.

[Verily]

Obama apparently won (just) over 60% in Centre County. Not what I expected; I thought it'd be like Athens County, Ohio (much less Clinton than surrounding, but still Clinton).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-18 should be just +1 for Hillary too, a similar scenario to PA-4 (though she does have 63% as opposed to 60% as said above.) The only way Hillary breaks 70% is if the parts of Westmoreland and Washington in it are way more favorable to her than the counties at large.

So with both PA-4 and PA-18 +1, would that put her statewide numbers at +13?

[12th Doctor]

I would defiantly bang the female reporter on CNN.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Obama apparently won (just) over 60% in Centre County. Not what I expected; I thought it'd be like Athens County, Ohio (much less Clinton than surrounding, but still Clinton).

60.11%

[Person Man]

I would defiantly bang the female reporter on CNN.

Do you think she is fertile?

[J. J.]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

Chester, and the bulk of the Black areas, are in PA-1.  It's basically the waterfront to just north of the Delaware border and then along lower Cobbs Creek, Yeadon and Darby are either majority Black of have a sizable minority population.  Also, part of PA-7 is in Chester County (King of Prussia).

PA-7, and PA-13 are still out.

What I'm really interested in is PA-12 and some of those other Western PA districts.

[Joe Biden 2020]

New delegate count and it looks as though we are sitting at a +4 net gain for Obama.

PA pledged:  HRC 52, BHO 46
PA supers:    HRC 67, BHO 51
Nationwide:  BHO 1,694, HRC 1,556.

We started the night with a 144 delegate advantage for Obama, and now we have a 148 delegate advantage.

[Verily]

PA-18 should be just +1 for Hillary too, a similar scenario to PA-4 (though she does have 63% as opposed to 60% as said above.) The only way Hillary breaks 70% is if the parts of Westmoreland and Washington in it are way more favorable to her than the counties at large.

So with both PA-4 and PA-18 +1, would that put her statewide numbers at +13?

Yes.

Chester's finally coming in more. Slightly stronger for Obama, now 55-45 Obama with 56% reporting. Still the least-reporting county in the state. Montgomery has 37% out, Lancaster is missing 16%, Westmoreland is short 9%, Bucks is short 8%. Some random small counties are missing some, too, but those definitely won't affect the result. Philadelphia is short 3%, and Allegheny is short 1%.

Check that, Pike County is the least reporting, with 62% left to come. But it's bitsy. Might be interesting to see if it swings towards Obama with the remaining results, though; most of the residents are (very long-distance) NYC commuters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

Chester, and the bulk of the Black areas, are in PA-1.  It's basically the waterfront to just north of the Delaware border and then along lower Cobbs Creek, Yeadon and Darby are either majority Black of have a sizable minority population.  Also, part of PA-7 is in Chester County (King of Prussia).

PA-7, and PA-13 are still out.

What I'm really interested in is PA-12 and some of those other Western PA districts.

Regardless, Hillary's not going to get the +20 that you said she needed. So is she finished or are you going to lower the bar?

[Joe Biden 2020]

New delegate count and it looks as though we are sitting at a +4 net gain for Obama.

PA pledged:  HRC 52, BHO 46
PA supers:    HRC 67, BHO 51
Nationwide:  BHO 1,694, HRC 1,556.

We started the night with a 144 delegate advantage for Obama, and now we have a 148 delegate advantage.

Correction.  Obama only has a 138 delegate advantage, meaning a +6 net gain for Clinton.

[Verily]

Westmoreland is now all in.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like the voters in Bucks County took the bitter comment to heart.

[Verily]

Looks like the voters in Bucks County took the bitter comment to heart.

Because, you know, Bucks is an economically depressed rural area.

More like the Rendell machine.

[J. J.]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

Chester, and the bulk of the Black areas, are in PA-1.  It's basically the waterfront to just north of the Delaware border and then along lower Cobbs Creek, Yeadon and Darby are either majority Black of have a sizable minority population.  Also, part of PA-7 is in Chester County (King of Prussia).

PA-7, and PA-13 are still out.

What I'm really interested in is PA-12 and some of those other Western PA districts.

Regardless, Hillary's not going to get the +20 that you said she needed. So is she finished or are you going to lower the bar?

No lowering, the only person that I have lowered the bar for is Obama.  I'm not convinced yet on the final totals.  I've heard everything from 13 to 17 on the district delegates.

But yes, without holding at least a 20 net gain, Hillary cannot get a majority of the elected delegates, even with MI/FL. 

Any win for her will not be "clean."

[Sam Spade]

Looks like the voters in Bucks County took the bitter comment to heart.

Because, you know, Bucks is an economically depressed rural area.

More like the Rendell machine.

The only machine power in this election, I suspect, was a negative one.