Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Verily]

Looks like the voters in Bucks County took the bitter comment to heart.

Because, you know, Bucks is an economically depressed rural area.

More like the Rendell machine.

The only machine power in this election, I suspect, was a negative one.

Certainly in Philly. In an area like Bucks? I suspect not so much.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

[Gustaf]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

[Torie]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

At 9.1% I'm in the hunt to win the $100. I am counting on the 3% out in Philly to get the job done! Right now, it is 9.8%.

[Torie]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Beyond Philly's 3%, you have Montco about even, with a third of the vote out, and Chester where Obama is winning by 10% with 44% of the vote out. Bucks has 4% out, and Alleghany about the same from wherever, but other than that, we are done. So moving down a measly little 70 basis points is in play.

Edit: I do notice a few percent out in Clintonia in odd places, so figure that cancels out Philly overall.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Depends, really, on what is left in Philly and where.

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

[Gustaf]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Depends, really, on what is left in Philly and where.

Montco is in. Margin is now 9.6%.

[Torie]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

It's the Jewish vote is my theory.

[Person Man]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

Chester, and the bulk of the Black areas, are in PA-1.  It's basically the waterfront to just north of the Delaware border and then along lower Cobbs Creek, Yeadon and Darby are either majority Black of have a sizable minority population.  Also, part of PA-7 is in Chester County (King of Prussia).

PA-7, and PA-13 are still out.

What I'm really interested in is PA-12 and some of those other Western PA districts.

Regardless, Hillary's not going to get the +20 that you said she needed. So is she finished or are you going to lower the bar?

No lowering, the only person that I have lowered the bar for is Obama.  I'm not convinced yet on the final totals.  I've heard everything from 13 to 17 on the district delegates.

But yes, without holding at least a 20 net gain, Hillary cannot get a majority of the elected delegates, even with MI/FL. 

Any win for her will not be "clean."

You finally understand.

[Sam Spade]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

It's the Jewish vote is my theory.

Could be that.  The Bucks Co. massacre is her most surprising showing to me (as Harrisburg is for Obama).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

You still got owned by Rob on Lancaster though.

[Torie]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Depends, really, on what is left in Philly and where.

Montco is in. Margin is now 9.6%.

Well we still have the Chester hammer, and maybe that 3% in Philly are all black precincts.

[Torie]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

It's the Jewish vote is my theory.

Could be that.  The Bucks Co. massacre is her most surprising showing to me (as Harrisburg is for Obama).

Clearly, both amazing.

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

You still got owned by Rob on Lancaster though.

Oh wow! Great!

Here's where the big boys discuss the results and little Zach resorts to, "Haha, you got owned!" We're thinking of putting Zachy in a nice after school program where he can improve on his people skills.

[Person Man]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Depends, really, on what is left in Philly and where.

Montco is in. Margin is now 9.6%.

Well we still have the Chester hammer, and maybe that 3% in Philly are all black precincts.

Looks like Obama kept her in the single digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

You still got owned by Rob on Lancaster though.

Oh wow! Great!

Here's where the big boys discuss the results and little Zach resorts to, "Haha, you got owned!" We're thinking of putting Zachy in a nice after school program where he can improve on his people skills.

You've completely ignored everything else I've posted in the thread then but since I can't expect you to read back more than 30 pages I'll give you a break on that. All I'm saying is that Rob is vindicated there since he barely posts anymore and probably won't be able to say it himself.

[Torie]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Depends, really, on what is left in Philly and where.

Montco is in. Margin is now 9.6%.

Well we still have the Chester hammer, and maybe that 3% in Philly are all black precincts.

Looks like Obama kept her in the single digits.

I just want my hundred bucks. I mean, who deserves it more? 

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

You still got owned by Rob on Lancaster though.

Oh wow! Great!

Here's where the big boys discuss the results and little Zach resorts to, "Haha, you got owned!" We're thinking of putting Zachy in a nice after school program where he can improve on his people skills.

You've completely ignored everything else I've posted in the thread then but since I can't expect you to read back more than 30 pages I'll give you a break on that. All I'm saying is that Rob is vindicated there since he barely posts anymore and probably won't be able to say it himself.

Good for him.

Since we're playing "for the record" just to be annoying, my prediction of a twelve point Hillary win is vindicated after her ten point win tonight (while you said she'd only win by six).

[Torie]

Down to 9.4%.  I just feel it!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Obama's over a million.

[Gustaf]

9.43% margin

[Verily]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

It's the Jewish vote is my theory.

Could be that.  The Bucks Co. massacre is her most surprising showing to me (as Harrisburg is for Obama).

I agree on both of those. Centre surprised me, too, but maybe I overestimate the size of the non-college communities.

[Gustaf]

9.45%

[Alcon]

Current margin: 9.55%*

* - If this goes above 9.6%, I win $100.  Pray for me!