Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[StateBoiler]

So when will Democrats on both sides of this split just start to realize it's better for the party to split in two?

[Person Man]

Obama's counties look like a wang protruding into the state.

Current margin: 9.55%*

* - If this goes above 9.6%, I win $100.  Pray for me!

No.

[Alcon]

No.

My One and True God shall smite you.

(I can say that because I have a Republican avatar now)

[Person Man]

No.

My One and True God shall smite you.

(I can say that because I have a Republican avatar now)

Fine.

[Torie]

Obama's counties look like a wang protruding into the state.

Current margin: 9.55%*

* - If this goes above 9.6%, I win $100.  Pray for me!

Edit
No.

God loves me more. But his love is slow in coming. It might take days!

Edit: 9,384% with most of  Chester in now. Time to call those pit bosses in Philly that are holding those votes back.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No.

My One and True God shall smite you.

(I can say that because I have a Republican avatar now)

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

[Alcon]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

[J. J.]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

Chester, and the bulk of the Black areas, are in PA-1.  It's basically the waterfront to just north of the Delaware border and then along lower Cobbs Creek, Yeadon and Darby are either majority Black of have a sizable minority population.  Also, part of PA-7 is in Chester County (King of Prussia).

PA-7, and PA-13 are still out.

What I'm really interested in is PA-12 and some of those other Western PA districts.

Regardless, Hillary's not going to get the +20 that you said she needed. So is she finished or are you going to lower the bar?

No lowering, the only person that I have lowered the bar for is Obama.  I'm not convinced yet on the final totals.  I've heard everything from 13 to 17 on the district delegates.

But yes, without holding at least a 20 net gain, Hillary cannot get a majority of the elected delegates, even with MI/FL. 

Any win for her will not be "clean."

You finally understand.

It didn't until tonight, and still might not have.

[Person Man]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

...and I heard you get good deals on really nice cars...

These cars eminate the prestige of the glorious Republican party- (If you don't have one- you're not a Republican- you're just bitter)








....or am I just  an out of touch elitist (who does it on an tight budget, mind you)?

[Alcon]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

I like it when you let your moderate social score show!  It's endearing.

[ChrisFromNJ]

54% turnout, is that correct?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

...and I heard you get good deals on really nice cars...

These cars eminate the prestige of the glorious Republican party- (If you don't have one- you're not a Republican- you're just bitter)








....or am I just  an out of touch elitist (who does it on an tight budget, mind you)?

Nice! My father has the Cadillac and I have the Mercedes second from the bottom (the C class style).

[Sam Spade]

Current margin: 9.55%*

* - If this goes above 9.6%, I win $100.  Pray for me!

You can now color in Pike and Potter to fit in with the surrounding environment.

[Person Man]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

...and I heard you get good deals on really nice cars...

These cars eminate the prestige of the glorious Republican party- (If you don't have one- you're not a Republican- you're just bitter)








....or am I just  an out of touch elitist (who does it on an tight budget, mind you)?

Nice! My father has the Cadillac and I have the Mercedes second from the bottom (the C class style).

Congratulations! You're a REAL republican. Alcon, however... i don't know...

[Colin]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

...and I heard you get good deals on really nice cars...

These cars eminate the prestige of the glorious Republican party- (If you don't have one- you're not a Republican- you're just bitter)








....or am I just  an out of touch elitist (who does it on an tight budget, mind you)?

What is that, a Jeep Commander? Bah, REAL Republicans own Grand Cherokees not that plebian mid-sized SUV. Anyway, as I have told you before, the true leaders of the Republican Party stopped buying American cars years ago, except for the errant Cadillac or Lincoln.

Anyway with my Mom's BMW, my Dad's Infiniti, and my Jeep Grand Cherokee I think we are pretty much no longer living breathing human beings but full blown stereotypes.

[StateBoiler]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)?

Damn. Here was me thinking it stood for Gay Orgy Party.

[jesmo]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

Uh, excuse me, that is very very insulting. I am a Christian, and God has no party. Not a Democrat, not a Republican. Please take your comment back.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So you've joined God's Own Party (GOP)? If so, welcome! If you are joking, the one True God will smite you!

Don't worry.  The day that I register with a political party is the day I die.  Or move to a state that makes me do that, I guess.  But death sounds so much more intense.

It is a purdy avatar, though.

At least if you die while being a Republican, you'll go to Heaven.

Uh, excuse me, that is very very insulting. I am a Christian, and God has no party. Not a Democrat, not a Republican. Please take your comment back.

I am a Christian too, but I have a sense of humor.

[Alcon]

Outstanding:

- 1% from Allegheny
- 1% from Bucks
- 9% from Chester
- 3% from Delaware
- 3% from Philadelphia

Extrapolating this, it gives Obama 15,194 more votes and Clinton 10,859.

That gives Clinton 1,260,795 and Obama 1,050,424.  Clinton receives 54.55% to Obama's 45.45%, for a margin of 9.10%.  This is, of course, assuming that the remaining precincts break as they have before.  When you get down to such small percentages, it's statistically much more likely that the remaining areas are heavily for one candidate.

That considered, I'd say the best for Clinton possible is about +9.4%, while worst-case is about +8.6%.  I'll call it +8.5-9.5 to be safe from lax reporting hijinx (I'm looking at you, Philadelphia.)

Just under half of the remaining vote is from Philly, 24% from Chester, 12% from Allegheny, 11% from Delaware and 4% from Burks.  These numbers are heavily affected by precinct size, estimations, and rounding, but the clear message is: Obama should do better among these last few precincts and the margin should be very slightly tighter tomorrow morning.

That's a night, folks.

[Verily]

Delegate math with the real results broken down!

The current splits (Clinton minus Obama):

PA-1: -3
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +1
PA-5: 0 (Clinton victory)
PA-6: 0 (Clinton victory)
PA-7: -1 (closest result)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +1
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +3
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: 0 (Obama victory)
PA-17: 0 (Clinton victory)
PA-18: +1
PA-19: 0 (Clinton victory)

+5 in district delegates, +5 in at-large delegates

Some of these are not mostly in, although many (like PA-1, despite the surprising result) are, and nearly all are at 75% or more. The following could reasonably shift:

PA-3 and PA-11, although only under half reporting, are very unlikely to flip to -1 from +1.
PA-13 could flip to +1 from +3, depending on which votes are in.
PA-7 could flip to +1 from -1 based on the few remaining results; Obama's margin is quite small.
PA-6 is barely reporting at all, but 0 is highly likely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The outstanding areas in PA-7 appear to favor Obama except for Collingdale (but even that's almost all in), most of the areas that are still out in Delaware are the heavily black areas in PA-1. I'm assuming a majority of places still out in PA-7 are in Chester then. Besides, Collingdale is probably canceled by Radnor which has a similar margin still out.

PA-11 is surprising, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre must've not've been as bad as the counties then. Of course that means the rural parts of the counties must've been UGLY.

[Alcon]

It's late and you've lost me.  What's Clinton's range and probable district delegates?  I assume she gets 5 more at-large delegates, but only 5 district delegates, for 10 total?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That looks most likely.

So yes, Walter can mock all he likes, but Kansas did in fact more than cancel out Pennsylvania.

[Filuwaúrdjan]