Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Alcon]

Oh, and the best news for Obama (offsets the higher senior turnout) -- 59% of those in the Ohio primary were women.  This time, it sounds like it's a few percentage points less.

[Torie]

From CNN - new exit poll info.


1 out 7 new voters in PA - they went 60-38 Obama

Voters who made up mind in last week - they went  58-42 Hillary

That is kind of interesting. If "new voter" means punk voter, Obama isn't rocking the vote.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

[Eraserhead]

From CNN - new exit poll info.


1 out 7 new voters in PA - they went 60-38 Obama

Voters who made up mind in last week - they went  58-42 Hillary

Obama's gonna get spanked.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol@some of those figures Alcoun posted. People are such dirty liers when it comes to exit polls.

[Eraserhead]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

Interesting to see that he won the black vote by as big a margin as he did in MS... if that holds up.

[Mr. Morden]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

Source?

[Alcon]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

For comparison, these numbers in Ohio were:

Black: 87-13 Obama
65 or older voters: 72-26 Clinton
White men: 58-39 Clinton

So, if these numbers are right, it's not bad news for Obama.  Of course, that's a big "if."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

Interesting to see that he won the black vote by as big a margin as he did in MS... if that holds up.

Nah, what we really want regarding blacks is turnout not how those that voted voted.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

Source?

CNN. Schneider just reported them just a few minutes ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

For comparison, these numbers in Ohio were:

Black: 87-13 Obama
65 or older voters: 72-26 Clinton
White men: 58-39 Clinton

So, if these numbers are right, it's not bad news for Obama.  Of course, that's a big "if."

What were the early exit figures for those demos in Ohio [kvestyon myrk]

[Torie]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

[Mr. Morden]

To repeat what I wrote in another thread, the first wave of exits that leak at ~6pm have typically been too Obama friendly.....and Alcon's Ohio numbers are presumably from the "final" exits.....at least I assume that's the case???

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[Rob]

Those numbers look mildly encouraging for Obama, I suppose.

[Alcon]

For clarity, those were the final exits which is why that "if" is so big.  I cannot find the early poll results for 65+, etc.  I'm trying.

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

For comparison, these numbers in Ohio were:

Black: 87-13 Obama
65 or older voters: 72-26 Clinton
White men: 58-39 Clinton

So, if these numbers are right, it's not bad news for Obama.  Of course, that's a big "if."

What were the early exit figures for those demos in Ohio [kvestyon myrk]

I'm having trouble finding those.  The mostly widely-reported results were the early "which candidate is better for November?" which were 52-44 Obama in Ohio and 52-41 in Texas.

[Sarnstrom]

Drudge's headline is "EXIT POLL DRAMA 5 PM ET: CLINTON 52, OBAMA 48" but of course there is no source behind it.

[Alcon]

Economy voters: 56-43 Clinton.  Ouch.  Same as in Ohio, says CNN.  I think that was the same as the final, though.

Iraq: 57-43 Obama.  That was a split in Ohio.

[Mr. Morden]

First (well almost....a minute behind Drudge) reputed leak of overall numbers....WTF?

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=

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[Verily]

From CNN - new exit poll info.


1 out 7 new voters in PA - they went 60-38 Obama

Voters who made up mind in last week - they went  58-42 Hillary

That is kind of interesting. If "new voter" means punk voter, Obama isn't rocking the vote.

I can't imagine 1 of 7 is true (or at least honest). That would mean turnout is barely up at all from the 2004 primary.

[Alcon]

First (well almost....a minute behind Drudge) reputed leak of overall numbers....WTF?

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=

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Uh, then who isn't voting for Obama?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

I have the women vote as 65-35 and Hillary winning by 4 (52-48)

[Alcon]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

I have the women vote as 65-35 and Hillary winning by 4 (52-48)

Looks like Matt Drudge did your math too.

This is looking not especially unlike Ohio (before the polls close, at least).

[Verily]

First (well almost....a minute behind Drudge) reputed leak of overall numbers....WTF?

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=

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Uh, then who isn't voting for Obama?

NOBODY! Obama wins 90% of the vote in PA! Write-ins for Gravel come in second! 

[Eraserhead]

LOL I called it guys!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=74661.0

Anyway, he might only lose by single digits, which would be good enough.

[Gustaf]

Looks like Ohio, no? But 6% better for Clinton, so...no, I'm not going to use this for any kind of speculation, I don't think.