Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Joe Biden 2020]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

158 pledged and 29 supers

Oops.  Misread the question...

[Sam Spade]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

[12th Doctor]

well, at least Obama did better in Pennsylvania that Santorum in 2006.

burn

Ummm... not really, at least Santorum won the majority in his party.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama now below 60% in Dauphin. He might even drop to 58% depending on what's out is...but still rather impressive. People laughed at me for predicting he'd take it too. Looks like Rob was probably vindicated on Lancaster too.

[Person Man]

well, at least Obama did better in Pennsylvania that Santorum in 2006.

..That doesn't say much...judging by what Santorum is...

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

35 at large, 20 PLEOs.

PLEOs are neat little things...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

[Verily]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

35 at large, 20 PLEOs.

Okay, so I overestimated. For some reason I thought there were 56 at-large delegates.

[Joe Biden 2020]

We're still holding at a 10 point lead with 88% in.

[Person Man]

So, uhhh..... there's a considerable Bradley Affect?

[Joe Biden 2020]

what is still out right now?  We have 11% left.

[Verily]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

We know the final numbers from DelCo, 55-45, even though CNN hasn't updated yet. Sounds like Obama almost definitely won PA-7 given that he so far is also winning lily-white Chester. But it may be close. Numerically, PA-4 and PA-18 can be switched.

[Person Man]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

We know the final numbers from DelCo, 55-45, even though CNN hasn't updated yet. Sounds like Obama almost definitely won PA-7 given that he so far is also winning lily-white Chester. But it may be close. Numerically, PA-4 and PA-18 can be switched.

So, how many state-wide does she have?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see what's surprising about Obama winning Chester or the white parts of Delaware, those areas are exactly the type of white areas he usually takes.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The record Democratic turnout continued tonight in Pennsylvania.  We are sitting at just over 2 million votes with 90% in.

[Verily]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

We know the final numbers from DelCo, 55-45, even though CNN hasn't updated yet. Sounds like Obama almost definitely won PA-7 given that he so far is also winning lily-white Chester. But it may be close. Numerically, PA-4 and PA-18 can be switched.

So, how many state-wide does she have?

+15, I think.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary has 19 at large and 11 PLEOs. Things are going to have to change DRASTICALLY for that to change. So that's a total of 30 to Obama's 25.

[Aizen]

Obama's lead in Dauphin is actually increasing.

A lot of idiots there near the capital.

I didn't know you lived in that area.

lol. post of the topic.

[Verily]

Hillary has 19 at large and 11 PLEOs. Things are going to have to change DRASTICALLY for that to change. So that's a total of 30 to Obama's 25.

Exactly. +10 on districts, +5 on at-large. No gap-closing going on tonight. But J. J.'s ever-falling bar might be set at a net gain of ten delegates now.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Hillary has 19 at large and 11 PLEOs. Things are going to have to change DRASTICALLY for that to change. So that's a total of 30 to Obama's 25.

And, its unlikely for things to change that much with only a little over 9% left to come in.

[Speed of Sound]

So it wont flip over to 54-46 now? Its gonna stick at 55-45?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So it wont flip over to 54-46 now? Its gonna stick at 55-45?

It might, but that won't affect the delegate numbers.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt Obama is winning is the white vote in Delaware County.  There's nearly 20% black population there and a still sizable Republican registration, and as I said before - they bleached the black parts out of that CD (e.g. Chester (the city))

[Verily]

So it wont flip over to 54-46 now? Its gonna stick at 55-45?

Possibly. It's right on the 9% line. Depends really on what the remaining suburban areas look like.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Its not much of a difference, but I wonder if Hillary will feel a little more of a victory with a 10 point double digit win as opposed to a 8 point single digit win?

[Speed of Sound]

So it wont flip over to 54-46 now? Its gonna stick at 55-45?

It might, but that won't affect the delegate numbers.

But it does affect what I can spin tomorrow at school.