Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Just a last one before I go.  I was just invited to an Obama Campaign rally, Friday evening. 

Automated call, obviously targeting geography.  It could be an indication of a weak ground game in Phila.  No lit yet.

[Keystone Phil]

  It could be an indication of a weak ground game in Phila.  No lit yet.

I was in West Philly today to pick up some material for Election day (for my job). I saw a few Obama signs but just as many Hillary signs. Across the street from where I picked up my material was this shack covered in Obama signs and music blasting from the speakers. It was some rap song about Obama changing the world. That's all the was said...over and over and over again. Oh, and something about McCain being Bush or something like that.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I'm  hangin out with the elitist liberals in Malvern this weekend........god my life sucks.

[Keystone Phil]

Just saw Obama's latest ad on gas prices. Like his other gas ad, this one targets blue collar voters. It's a very simple ad - a bunch of union guys (and a few women) talking about the need to lower gas prices, how Obama doesn't take money from big oil, etc. The setting - gas stations, of course.

[Tender Branson]

I´ll make an early prediction:

Turnout: ~ 2.105.000 Democrats

Clinton: 55.88 % - 1.176.000 votes
Obama: 44.12 % - 929.000 votes

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The entire drive to Philly I heard Hillary commercials starring John Murtha.......god he makes me want to puke.

[Speed of Sound]

Oh. Yeah. In my hands, right now, are tickets to see Obama tomorrow Reading High. We're gettin there mega early to make sure we get the best seats. (My Dads an Obama fanatic)

[Keystone Phil]

Well, it's the weekend before the big day and I'm in Philly so you know it's chaos. 

I saw a few people out who were clearly canvassing for a candidate. I'm 90% sure it was for Obama. I saw two of them entering my precinct which is a total waste of time. I'd be shocked if Obama does well here...though we do have a good number of young couples in the neighborhood...


My prediction for Tuesday:

Hillary - 56%
Obama - 44%

[Keystone Phil]

That canvass must have been for Hillary. I just returned from mass and saw two new Hillary signs up on lawns. There are no Obama yard signs.

[J. J.]

I was sitting next to GM3 during much of the meeting, but I was also in West Chester.  Few signs, but it looked like a completely racial divide, yard sign and campaign button wise.

Poll wise, it looks like a narrow victory (and a strategic loss) for Hillary.  I'm really wondering if there isn't a Bradley Effect in PA.

[J. J.]

The Obama campaign called me and asked me to vote on Tuesday.    They got my polling place right as well.

[Alcon]

I'm hearing rumblings about most of the undecideds in polls being white Catholics, especially lower-income ones, with a generally negative view of both candidates, especially Obama.

Should break heavily Clinton, no?

[J. J.]

SEIU workers out in North Phila, but not a lot.

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

[ChrisFromNJ]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

[Lief 🗽]

The Bradley Effect has yet to occur in any state (except in reverse in some heavily-black Deep South states) in this primary.

I've been hearing rumors that internal Obama polls show that the race is within a few percentage points and winnable. Makes sense, considering that he put out two new ads yesterday, something he didn't do in Ohio. His canvassing operations are also much more targeted than they were the weekend before Ohio.

Also, Rendell this morning was talking about how a 3-5 point percentage win would be a landslide for Clinton. He could be trying to play the expectations game, or polls could be showing a 3-5 point race. We'll find out on Tuesday.

[Verily]

I doubt there will be a swing against Obama of more than 2-3 points from the final polls; Pennsylvania is like Ohio, not Massachusetts, and the final polls were pretty good in Ohio, save Zogby.

[J. J.]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

No, the fairly large undecided numbers.  Instead of saying "I'm for Obama," and voting for Hillary, they might be saying "I'm undecided," and voting for Hillary.  Something like that seemed to occur in OH.

The Bradley Effect has yet to occur in any state (except in reverse in some heavily-black Deep South states) in this primary.

I've been hearing rumors that internal Obama polls show that the race is within a few percentage points and winnable. Makes sense, considering that he put out two new ads yesterday, something he didn't do in Ohio. His canvassing operations are also much more targeted than they were the weekend before Ohio.

If it was truly targeted, I shouldn't be getting GOTV calls.

[Verily]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

No, the fairly large undecided numbers.  Instead of saying "I'm for Obama," and voting for Hillary, they might be saying "I'm undecided," and voting for Hillary.  Something like that seemed to occur in OH.

Not really. The final polls in Ohio (ignoring Zogby and ARG, although ARG would corroborate this) were on both sides of Clinton's margin.

SUSA: C+10
PPP: C+9
Suffolk: C+12
Rasmussen: C+6
Actual: C+10

[J. J.]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

No, the fairly large undecided numbers.  Instead of saying "I'm for Obama," and voting for Hillary, they might be saying "I'm undecided," and voting for Hillary.  Something like that seemed to occur in OH.

Not really. The final polls in Ohio (ignoring Zogby and ARG, although ARG would corroborate this) were on both sides of Clinton's margin.

SUSA: C+10
PPP: C+9
Suffolk: C+12
Rasmussen: C+6
Actual: C+10

Well, if you're using Rasmussen as a comparison, Hillary by seven.   The should be a last round out. 

If I were Obama, I'd be very worried about that undecided.

[Sam Spade]

In truth, there is the "predictable" scenario and there is the "race is over" scenario.  I think I've already publicly stated where I think those scenarios lie, but they should be kind of obvious.

The last M-D poll is one of the tools I'm using because they are a good pollster (although they've not been good at primaries, and who is, frankly).  We're going to see a few more of those tools come out soon.

And as for the Bradley effect, who knows.  Just be careful that it's more likely to appear and a greater level in PA than in OH.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If it was truly targeted, I shouldn't be getting GOTV calls.

They're just assuming basically that every single person in your area is a Democrat and likely to vote for Obama. Which isn't too far from the truth in this case. In such an area it's not worth it to analyze it enough to take the 5 Republicans who live in it off the list.

[J. J.]

If it was truly targeted, I shouldn't be getting GOTV calls.

They're just assuming basically that every single person in your area is a Democrat and likely to vote for Obama. Which isn't too far from the truth in this case. In such an area it's not worth it to analyze it enough to take the 5 Republicans who live in it off the list.

It is, because it doesn't look like Obama is targeting other districts.  A friend of mine in PA-1 who is both a Democrat and African American got calls from Bill Clinton and Rendell, but not from Obama.

It sure looks like Obama is making an effort in PA-2 and taking a shotgun approach.  Clinton's ground game might be more tailored.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well her's has to be. Just like the Republicans' have to be in the general election. If you have wards that are going to vote 80%+ for you no matter what, it's worth it to just try to get every single voter who lives there out rather than spend the time filtering the few non-supporters (especially as if, as in this case, the non-supporters aren't even eligible to vote rather than being likely to vote for your opponent.)

[J. J.]

Well her's has to be. Just like the Republicans' have to be in the general election. If you have wards that are going to vote 80%+ for you no matter what, it's worth it to just try to get every single voter who lives there out rather than spend the time filtering the few non-supporters (especially as if, as in this case, the non-supporters aren't even eligible to vote rather than being likely to vote for your opponent.)

It's not tailored but a shotgun approach.  My friend lives in a Democratic ward in PA-1.

[agcatter]

JJ, can you or one of the other Pennsylvania posters give me a list of counties you expect Obama to carry and maybe some he might carry.  I'm a total novice when it comes to your state and would like to have something to go by when the returns start coming in Tuesday night.

Thanks in advance.