Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Gustaf]

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4703379&page=1

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That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...which means that it doesnt rhyme with all the other "leaks." Well, well.

Now, where can I see some live tv on my computer from one of the networks? Help me out please...

[Alcon]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

No, but if Clinton wins by 10-15% again in Pennsylvania, it will be yet another opportunity blown by Obama to seal the deal.

[Gustaf]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just under half of Pennsylvania Democratic voters have a college degree,

lol, yeah right.

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No. Really. Now That Is A Surprise. I Wonder Why That Might Be.

[Sam Spade]

Just under half of Pennsylvania Democratic voters have a college degree,

lol, yeah right.

WEH THIANKES WEH AIS SZMART YOUSER IJUT!!!111

[Sam Spade]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

The real question is, once again, whether everything is as it seems or whether it isn't.  I can't tell you that right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

The real question is, once again, whether everything is as it seems or whether it isn't.  I can't tell you that right now.

Would opium help ? 

[Sam Spade]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

The real question is, once again, whether everything is as it seems or whether it isn't.  I can't tell you that right now.

Would opium help ? 

I think only opium helps opebo.  But I may be confusing "help" with "damages" here.

[politicaltipster]

I think Pollster.com stated that Obama tends to underperform the exit polls by 7% or so (and that's not counting the rumoured Union poll that had Obama carrying NH by 13%. To a certain extent, an exit poll lead of 4% leads is good for Hillary because it suggests that she'll get in the region of 10%-11%.

[J. J.]

What is a normal primary turnout?  What were you expecting (low, medium, high)?  What is GE turnout like?  How many registered Dems are there in this precinct total?

The dividing line between heavy and light was 110 at 1:45 PM.  Huge is about 130.  Medium is about 90.  Very low would be about 40.

The precinct is about 95% Democrat, and 95% Black. 

This is not good news for Obama.

Let me ask one more question, and repeat one from earlier.

1) What is the normal % of the vote that has voted by 1:45 PM compared to final results (35-40-45 or something like that?)

In general, the 1:30-2:00 PM is about the halfway mark.

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I don't know definitely, by I've heard 400-600, voters, with probably 95%+ Democrat.

[Eraserhead]

SHOCK EXIT POLL:

Obama 57% Clinton 39% Gravel 3% Burr 1%

[Mr. Morden]

http://thepage.time.com/

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[True Democrat]

Chris Matthews says he thinks Obama will get around 70% in Philly.  Is that a high prediction?

I thought he would be closer to 60-65%.

[J. J.]

Lower North Philadelphia, PA-2:  Same as upper area, uneven with some polling places with no activities.  Greater number of signs however.

PA-1 Kensington:  You can barely tell that there is a candidate named Obama on the ballot.  Most polling stations solidly staffed with Clinton supporters.

[Mr. Morden]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

[Eraserhead]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

[True Democrat]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Which puts it at about 50-50, which isn't bad for early numbers from Drudge (meaning Clinton has a much bigger margin)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

Actually that isn't too terrible numbers for Obama. Probably equals a single digit loss.

[Alcon]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

[Eraserhead]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

Soon we'll come back to reality.

[Sam Spade]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

It wouldn't be anywhere near that much - but then again it should be plainly obvious that, unless something changes, more Democrats will defect from Obama than vice versa.  Of course, with Indys and GOPers, that number is reversed, so...

[ChrisFromNJ]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

[Speed of Sound]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

Actually, if 18% of voters were black, Obama won, so there numbers are tough to buy at face value.