Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WAS industrial.  There's a few steel jobs left, but nothing significant.  Pittsburgh is now fairly high-tech, but it's still bleeding jobs (though the metropolitan area is pretty static, IIRC).

The term "post industrial" fits the Pittsburgh area quite well. Of course on one level it's still an industrial city, just not an extremely important manufacturing centre anymore.

I should have put was, I know it isn't that industrial now, but for some reason I didn't put it down. Where are the more major steel/manufacturing jobs at in PN now? I am pretty sure Erie has some, but other than that...

Go to the thread that is called "Random Maps" and the answer shall be found there.

[Eraserhead]

If it's really as close as 4 points (I kind of doubt it), the networks will drag this puppy out all night.

[Person Man]

I think it WILL be

Obama 46
Clinton 53

after all.

[Aizen]

I think it WILL be

Obama 46
Clinton 53

after all.

I'll take that.

[J. J.]

In the next 40 minutes, we should know.

[Aizen]

In the next 40 minutes, we should know.

what do you predict dude from pennsylvania?

[Eraserhead]

In the next 40 minutes, we should know.

They won't call it though.

[Torie]

If it's really as close as 4 points (I kind of doubt it), the networks will drag this puppy out all night.

Ya, the Bradley effect, and maybe the senior citizen grumpiness effect, etc. Who knows? If it is double digits, the exits are going to look kind of bad however, but that won't be the first time. I remember the exits having Kerry winning Florida. That was frightening, and here I thought Halloween was over!

[Person Man]

If it's really as close as 4 points (I kind of doubt it), the networks will drag this puppy out all night.

Ya, the Bradley effect, and maybe the senior citizen grumpiness effect, etc. Who knows? If it is double digits, the exits are going to look kind of bad however, but that won't be the first time. I remember the exits having Kerry winning Florida. That was frightening, and here I thought Halloween was over!

What's the Bradley affect anyway? Racial Guilt? or Race being a deal breaker once the voter is in the booth?

[Eraserhead]

Only 14% of those who voted were black (according to MSNBC).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Bradley Effect is the theory that many whites may not be willing to openly say they're voting against a black in a poll, but will do so in the privacy of the voting booth. So black candidates underperform their poll numbers.

Hasn't really happened this election though, except possibly a variation where people rather than lie and say they're voting for the black will respond undecided and then go ahead and vote for the white candidate.

[Eraserhead]

Only 10% of voters were 18-29.

[True Democrat]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

[Eraserhead]

Looks ugly for the black fellow.

[Speed of Sound]

Good effing lord I hope theyre wrong.....I really do.

[ChrisFromNJ]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

[Alcon]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

How are you calculating that?

[J. J.]

The Bradley Effect is the theory that many whites may not be willing to openly say they're voting against a black in a poll, but will do so in the privacy of the voting booth. So black candidates underperform their poll numbers.

Hasn't really happened this election though, except possibly a variation where people rather than lie and say they're voting for the black will respond undecided and then go ahead and vote for the white candidate.

I think I've been making that point for a few days.  The demographics do not look favorable for Obama.

[True Democrat]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

First of all, I think the numbers will improve for Hillary.

Second of all, even with those numbers, I think the margin is higher than 52-48.  Those low numbers for blacks and young people are really bad for Obama (in Ohio, 18-29 was 16% in the  final exit poll).

[Eraserhead]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

How are you calculating that?

Yeah, I'm not getting that.

[War on Want]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

[Speed of Sound]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

How are you calculating that?

Yeah really. Those numbers suggest a very healthy Clinton margin.

[Eraserhead]

I wish I stuck with my original 9 point prediction.

[True Democrat]

According to CNN:

Serious recession: 42%
Moderate recession: 47%
Slowing down: 10%

Decided in last week:
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 42%

[Eraserhead]

How can people say MSNBC is completely anti-Hillary? Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchanan are both Hillary hacks!