Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[agcatter]

Hey, regardless who wins, the people will be thrilled in Pennsylvania.  No more ads.  We threw a party when Obama ads finally left the state.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

[exopolitician]

I just want tonight to be over with...whatever the results are. Im tired of 3 polls a day of Pennsylvania.

[Sam Spade]

We're going to know the result after the exit polls come in?  That's news to me.

[Alcon]

Why does the CNN map have a label in northwest Philadelphia that says "CLINTON: GET IT DONE"?

[True Democrat]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

Northern suburbs, I would agree.  Southern, richer suburbs, I would have to disagree.

[War on Want]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

I know, but overall high suburb turnout helps him more than overall low suburb turnout.

[Eraserhead]

Anyone think they'll call it as soon as the polls close? I don't.

[ChrisFromNJ]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

How are you calculating that?

80% White - 60-40 Hillary ---->> .80*60=  48.00 for Hillary,  .80*40=32.00 for Obama
14% Black - 92-8 Obama-------> .14*8 =    1.12 for Hillary,   .14*92= 12.88 for Obama
6% Other - 50-50 ----------------> .6*50=    3.00 for Hillary,    .6*50 = 03.00 for Obama
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     52.12 for Hillary               47.88 for Obama

[Eraserhead]

Why does the CNN map have a label in northwest Philadelphia that says "CLINTON: GET IT DONE"?

They're rooting for her?

[Sam Spade]

Is there going to be a CD results breakdown link?  Or is it just going to be guessing from counties - with that gerrymander, it's next to impossible.

[Alcon]

Is there going to be a CD results breakdown link?  Or is it just going to be guessing from counties - with that gerrymander, it's next to impossible.

PA doesn't generally report by CD on the state level...I wouldn't expect miracles.

[J. J.]

I wish I stuck with my original 9 point prediction.

My 11 point prediction might be too conservative. 

I had to robocalls; one from actor Samuel L. Jackson and one from Obama.

[True Democrat]

I wish I stuck with my original 9 point prediction.

My 11 point prediction might be too conservative. 

I had to robocalls; one from actor Samuel L. Jackson and one from Obama.

We had one from Michelle Obama today.

[True Democrat]

59% of weekly churchgoers for Clinton.

[Gustaf]

tv link please?

[Alcon]

"Very competitive"

[Eraserhead]

MSNBC: "Too close to call"

[War on Want]

I am keeping my super high Clinton victory to keep me happy, if Clinton actually does do much better than expected.

[J. J.]

I wish I stuck with my original 9 point prediction.

My 11 point prediction might be too conservative. 

I had to robocalls; one from actor Samuel L. Jackson and one from Obama.

We had one from Michelle Obama today.

Both of these were after 2:00 PM.  The Obama call was after 6:00 PM.

TCTC

[exopolitician]

Too close to call pls.

[True Democrat]

tv link please?

If you're referring to the churchgoers, it's from CNN.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

Northern suburbs, I would agree.  Southern, richer suburbs, I would have to disagree.

I was thinking more in terms of "suburb" being the non-urban-core part of a metropolitan area (which is almost certainly what is meant in the exit poll).

[Verily]

CNN has their numbers up, same as the leaked exit poll (53-47 Obama among men, 55-44 Clinton among women).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Exit polls show Clinton up 4 points.