Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[True Democrat]

Question about the Democratic primary:

Does the actual primary between Obama and Clinton count for delegates?  Or are the elected delegates the only thing that counts?

I was helping my mom vote, and I saw that she had to vote for Clinton or Obama, plus she had to vote for delegates and an alternate.

My ward and district (precinct I guess) had a Democratic turnout of I think 117 and 18 for the Republicans.  I asked the lady the total number of registered voters in each one, but she was old and couldn't answer.

[True Democrat]

Chris Matthews says he thinks Obama will get around 70% in Philly.  Is that a high prediction?

I thought he would be closer to 60-65%.

[True Democrat]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Which puts it at about 50-50, which isn't bad for early numbers from Drudge (meaning Clinton has a much bigger margin)

[True Democrat]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

These are early numbers, remember.

[True Democrat]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

[True Democrat]

I saw an exit poll flashed at the bottom of MSNBC.  It said 58% women.  Not very good news for Obama.

[True Democrat]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

Well I meant Allegheny County, because at this point I use counties to represent cities(stupid I know).  Well thanks for the analysis, the only thing I know about Pittsburgh is that it is around 30% black, and it is industrial.

WAS industrial.  There's a few steel jobs left, but nothing significant.  Pittsburgh is now fairly high-tech, but it's still bleeding jobs (though the metropolitan area is pretty static, IIRC).

There's also the question of if students registered in Pennsylvania or in their home states.  Oakland (the neighborhood where the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon are located) is pretty poor, except for the college areas.  These are significant college populations, but I just don't know where they're registered (of course, Pitt is a state-affiliated school, so a lot of the students are from PA anyway).

[True Democrat]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

[True Democrat]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

First of all, I think the numbers will improve for Hillary.

Second of all, even with those numbers, I think the margin is higher than 52-48.  Those low numbers for blacks and young people are really bad for Obama (in Ohio, 18-29 was 16% in the  final exit poll).

[True Democrat]

According to CNN:

Serious recession: 42%
Moderate recession: 47%
Slowing down: 10%

Decided in last week:
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 42%

[True Democrat]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

Northern suburbs, I would agree.  Southern, richer suburbs, I would have to disagree.

[True Democrat]

I wish I stuck with my original 9 point prediction.

My 11 point prediction might be too conservative. 

I had to robocalls; one from actor Samuel L. Jackson and one from Obama.

We had one from Michelle Obama today.

[True Democrat]

59% of weekly churchgoers for Clinton.

[True Democrat]

tv link please?

If you're referring to the churchgoers, it's from CNN.

[True Democrat]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

It's getting rather common these days to identify as non-denominational Christian even if you don't attend a non-denominational church (actually that's not surprising since it is the most logical classification if you consider yourself a Christian but don't attend any church.)

I suppose it's the fact that it's strong for Obama that gets me. Elsewhere, Obama runs strongly among Protestants largely because most blacks identify as Protestants. But I can only explain those numbers by saying that, in PA but not elsewhere, blacks identify as "generic Christians".

Obama also does well with Protestants because the Upper classes are Protestant more heavily than Catholics. Which makes sense.

Maybe in 1600. . .when Catholics didn't really believe in capitalism.

(just kidding, but I don't think that's as true today)

[True Democrat]

Regional breakdown of the exit poll:

Philadelphia: 16%
Philadelphia suburbs: 13%
Northeast: 14%
Pittsburgh and West: 33%
Central and North: 24%

Region is the one thing they'll be rebalancing if they do change the exit poll.

Does Pittsburgh and West seem a bit high in comparison to Philadelphia plus suburbs to you?  Although, I might be underestimating the number of votes from Erie and the Northwest.

[True Democrat]

Looks like it will be somewhat close (Which is of course absolutely pathetic for Hillary considering this is the perfect state for her) so this could be an interesting evening.

Actually, considering the money Obama spent, it should be his.

Let the spin begin!

No, Obama should win big, if based on the money.  That 33% from the west does not look good.

Not good as in for Obama, or in terms of balancing the state populations?

[True Democrat]

I wonder why no one is reporting...

Pennsylvania exploded with vigor and decisiveness!

No. . .wait. . .I'm still here.

[True Democrat]

White men:
C: 53%
O: 46%

In Ohio, they voted for Clinton by 19 (with the adjusted exit polls)

White women:
C: 64%
O: 36%

Close to in Ohio (with adjusted exit polls), which I think is bad for Obama

[True Democrat]

The Clinton people seem kind of sad while the Obama people seem optimistic, for whatever that is worth.

Have you ever been to an Obama rally. . .

[True Democrat]

Fox to call it for Clinton.

[True Democrat]

MSNBC looks like it has called it too (I saw a checkmark next to Clinton)

[True Democrat]

Looking like Casey didn't help in NE Penn.  At least looking at the Luzerne results.

[True Democrat]

I think Casey shaved his unibrow.

[True Democrat]

Big dump of results from Allegheny County, from 0% to 45% in. Clinton leads by about what I'd expect (56-44).

That's higher than I expected for Clinton.