Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Alcon]

Auditor General and western PA political powerhouse Jack Wagner backs Obama - http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/04/auditor_general_wagner_will_en.html

Is the "powerhouse" part sarcasm, for those of us who don't know Pennsylvania?

[Alcon]

Delegate Analysis - http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375&cpage=1

And, as usual, PA 13 is the center of the political universe, described as one of the most competitive districts in the state.

So, they project 53-50 Clinton for a high single digits victory?  Ouch.

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Not to spoil the fun, but if yard signs were an accurate measurement of much other than local organization, Kerry would have broken 95% in my precinct.

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That's true...I keep forgetting that you people have fliers and street games and stuff like that.  It's so weird to think that stuff still exists...

[Alcon]

I'm hearing rumblings about most of the undecideds in polls being white Catholics, especially lower-income ones, with a generally negative view of both candidates, especially Obama.

Should break heavily Clinton, no?

[Alcon]

I thought I'd share this



h/t: fivethirtyeight.com

[Alcon]

PA has a mock election test on this page now but it will give you the returns once they start coming in tonight:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=27

Ron Paul LANDSLIDE.

[Alcon]

How is Bucks County expected to vote anyway?  Swing area?

[Alcon]

Are there any early turnout reports?

I'm hearing mid-high turnout in Bucks, high in Montco, good in the Pittsburgh metro area.  No reports from Philly that I'm finding.

One anecdotal report of "near 50/50 Obama/Clinton split" in a Washington County precinct, but I have no idea how one would determine that so I assume it's crap.  Obama isn't winning Washington County.

[Alcon]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

That's pretty much their job, regardless of how good/bad the result is going to be.  Other rumblings I've heard say that new voters are getting the wrong precinct locations.

S**t happens.

[Alcon]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

That's pretty much their job, regardless of how good/bad the result is going to be.  Other rumblings I've heard say that new voters are getting the wrong precinct locations.

S**t happens.

So basically it's just like any other normal day at the polls?

Pretty much.  Big city polling places are more likely to break down.  Voter card screw-ups happen...it's not a conspiracy, even if it sucks, but Obama's people have every right to complain about it.

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I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

[Alcon]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

They must be. I did a google map of the precinct. It is all middle to lower upper middle class single family housing. The rich folks live on the north side of Lancaster Ave, and this is just to the south.

Oh, OK.  I did read that there is a section of Ardmore that is split between working-class whites and blacks, and such a result doesn't seem surprising.  I thought this precinct was the entire CDP (or an approximation thereof).  That result doesn't sound especially troubling for Obama, but not good.

[Alcon]

Actually, I just looked it up, and this is a precinct that contains upper-lower middle class areas to very affluent ones.  There is also a significant black population to the west and northwest, approaching 40% in some locales.  This is an area Obama should be performing well in.

I think we're reading a mite too much into this, though. 

Edit:  It is also, however, in an unusually elderly area.  It looks like well over a third of the precinct's population is over the age of 65.

[Alcon]

Actually, I just looked it up, and this is a precinct that contains upper-lower middle class areas to very affluent ones.  There is also a significant black population to the west and northwest, approaching 40% in some locales.  This is an area Obama should be performing well in.

I think we're reading a mite too much into this, though. 

Edit:  It is also, however, in an unusually elderly area.  It looks like well over a third of the precinct's population is over the age of 65.

Where did you find all of that information as to one precinct?  Wow!  And it seems quite diverse for one little precinct. It must go north of Lancaster Ave.

Well, it's a polling place, not a precinct, no?  So I assumed it contained several precincts, so I just looked at the areas south of the Lancaster Ave line.  The block groups right around the church have a median household income of about $47,000, are about 20% black, are more than half over the age of 45, and are about 35% over 65.  As you get further to the northwest, it becomes more black and more lower middle class.

If the polling place goes south of Wynnewood Road, or north of Lancaster Road, the demographic picture shifts sharply toward affluent, older whites.

I'm getting all this from the SocioEconomic Mapper.

[Alcon]

When will the official CNN exit poll be relased ? 1AM or 2AM ?

According to a dubious Thai source, Clinton leads an "exit poll" 55-45 ...

Link

Good night. I´m going to sleep. See you in 5 hours.

An exit poll of exactly 1,000 people where the split is exactly 550-450?  Fictional.

[Alcon]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

[Alcon]

I just read a report that some people are reporting precincts where Obama isn't on the ballot...

It's my understanding that those are actually just mock ballots given out by the Clinton campaign showing people "how to vote"

Which people thought were real ballots?

Haha, I love voters.

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Shouldn't we be getting "exit polls" right about now?

[Alcon]

For comparison:

White
Pennsylvania: "Overwhelming" (thanks AP!!!  Score one for the U.S. Census)
Ohio: 76%

Over 65
Pennsylvania: ~30%
Ohio: 14%

Income over $100k
Pennsylvania: ~25%
Ohio: 19%

Postgraduate education
Pennsylvania: ~25%
Ohio: 16%

Race a top factor
Pennsylvania: ~20%
Ohio: 20%

Sex a top factor
Pennsylvania: ~20%
Ohio: 17%

Union member
Pennsylvania: ~30%
Ohio: 34%

[Alcon]

Oh, and the best news for Obama (offsets the higher senior turnout) -- 59% of those in the Ohio primary were women.  This time, it sounds like it's a few percentage points less.

[Alcon]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

For comparison, these numbers in Ohio were:

Black: 87-13 Obama
65 or older voters: 72-26 Clinton
White men: 58-39 Clinton

So, if these numbers are right, it's not bad news for Obama.  Of course, that's a big "if."

[Alcon]

For clarity, those were the final exits which is why that "if" is so big.  I cannot find the early poll results for 65+, etc.  I'm trying.

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

For comparison, these numbers in Ohio were:

Black: 87-13 Obama
65 or older voters: 72-26 Clinton
White men: 58-39 Clinton

So, if these numbers are right, it's not bad news for Obama.  Of course, that's a big "if."

What were the early exit figures for those demos in Ohio [kvestyon myrk]

I'm having trouble finding those.  The mostly widely-reported results were the early "which candidate is better for November?" which were 52-44 Obama in Ohio and 52-41 in Texas.

[Alcon]

Economy voters: 56-43 Clinton.  Ouch.  Same as in Ohio, says CNN.  I think that was the same as the final, though.

Iraq: 57-43 Obama.  That was a split in Ohio.

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First (well almost....a minute behind Drudge) reputed leak of overall numbers....WTF?

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=

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Uh, then who isn't voting for Obama?