Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Torie]

That's true...I keep forgetting that you people have fliers and street games and stuff like that.  It's so weird to think that stuff still exists...

Campaign signs are illegal in most of my world. Putting them up enrages folks.

[Torie]

That's most excellent Alcon. That made my day.

[Torie]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

Ya, Pennsylvania runs up positively frightening large Dem majorities on general election night, before things start to erode back down.

[Torie]

Just FYI, I didn't see this earlier, but Obama will be spending the evening (giving his afterwards speech) in Evansville, IN.  Don't know where Clinton will be.

In the City of Brotherly Love.

[Torie]

How is Bucks County expected to vote anyway?  Swing area?

That's the rumor.

[Torie]

For you anecdote hounds out there:

Bitter in Greensburg, Pa.   [David Freddoso]

A friend calls in from a polling station in rural white west Pennsylvania, where he's following a local Republican primary. He tells me that the Obama poll-worker passing out literature has been getting worked over all morning. Here's a small, anecdotal sample of the remarks. The first one refused an Obama flier as he entered the polling place:

    "I'd like to take that, but I'm just too bitter."

And this guy, pointing to a nearby military cemetery:

    "I don't like the b****, but at least she'll wear the flag. There are a lot of guys up in that cemetery that fought for that flag."

On the other hand, the younger voters are backing Obama. Turnout is heavy and the weather is beautiful, all working to Hillary's advantage.

From NRO (the Corner)

[Torie]

 What to Look For in the PA Exit Polls

Mark Blumenthal has a super-helpful post sizing up the differences in demographic composition among the various Pennsylvania polls, along with this useful chart summarizing all the crosstabs. The upshot (which I'm not sure Mark would feel 100 percent comfortable with) is that Obama's probably going to have a decent night (say, 7-point loss or less) if the African-American share of the vote hits or exceeds the upper teens, and if younger voters (ages 18-44) get into the low 40s or higher. If those demographic groups don't hit those thresholds, I'd guess Hillary's going to win by close to ten (or more) points.

(And, obviously, Obama needs to overwhelmingly win African American voters, do well among younger voters, and not terribly among white voters. But you already knew that...)

--Noam Scheiber

From TNR

And after some rather painful vaccillative soul searching that makes Hamlet seem impulsive by contrast, Jim Geraghty says Clinton wins by only 4%.   However, Obama is only breaking even in a Montco precinct that isn't nearly as downscale as Geraghty thinks it is. Obama can't break even in Montco and avoid losing the state by double digits.

[Torie]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

They must be. I did a google map of the precinct. It is all middle to lower upper middle class single family housing. The rich folks live on the north side of Lancaster Ave, and this is just to the south.

[Torie]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

They must be. I did a google map of the precinct. It is all middle to lower upper middle class single family housing. The rich folks live on the north side of Lancaster Ave, and this is just to the south.

Oh, OK.  I did read that there is a section of Ardmore that is split between working-class whites and blacks, and such a result doesn't seem surprising.  I thought this precinct was the entire CDP (or an approximation thereof).  That result doesn't sound especially troubling for Obama, but not good.

The precinct is  not working class, and I doubt many blacks live in it, but not sure about the latter.

[Torie]

Actually, I just looked it up, and this is a precinct that contains upper-lower middle class areas to very affluent ones.  There is also a significant black population to the west and northwest, approaching 40% in some locales.  This is an area Obama should be performing well in.

I think we're reading a mite too much into this, though. 

Edit:  It is also, however, in an unusually elderly area.  It looks like well over a third of the precinct's population is over the age of 65.

Where did you find all of that information as to one precinct?  Wow!  And it seems quite diverse for one little precinct. It must go north of Lancaster Ave.

[Torie]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

[Torie]

From CNN - new exit poll info.


1 out 7 new voters in PA - they went 60-38 Obama

Voters who made up mind in last week - they went  58-42 Hillary

That is kind of interesting. If "new voter" means punk voter, Obama isn't rocking the vote.

[Torie]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

[Torie]

Here is a post from our own Alcon on March 4 as to early exit poll results from Ohio:

Ohio exit poll:

Clinton 51.1%
Obama 47.9%

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually Clinton would still win by a percentage point, but it won't be 18% black  anyway.

[Torie]

All these numbers if true point to a 4% Clinton margin. Geraghty at Campaign Spot must be thinking at the moment that he is clairvoyant.

[Torie]

If it's really as close as 4 points (I kind of doubt it), the networks will drag this puppy out all night.

Ya, the Bradley effect, and maybe the senior citizen grumpiness effect, etc. Who knows? If it is double digits, the exits are going to look kind of bad however, but that won't be the first time. I remember the exits having Kerry winning Florida. That was frightening, and here I thought Halloween was over!

[Torie]

Exact exit poll:

Clinton 51.6%
Obama 47.8%

That is just what Ohio was.

[Torie]

Yay, results!

And Clinton leads in Philadelphia!

Philadelphia is not a homogenous city.

[Torie]

Well Fred Barnes is busy spinning that if Clinton wins by 10% it changes everything. You have to love it.

[Torie]

Huntingdon and Blair. Obama leads in Huntingdon County (14-9, LOL).

Too bad those results won't last...

You think? 

[Torie]

Fox News projects Clinton wins.

[Torie]

Fox News projects Clinton wins.

Isn't it too early, or does Michael Barone see something in the six precincts we've gotten so far.

They must have received another exit poll dump, and it must be in high single digits at least.

[Torie]

Luzerne with 31% in 3-1 for Clinton. Go Wilkes Barre!

[Torie]

Scranton is particularly ugly, but I'm not surprised.  The numbers will keep bumping around a bit here, I suspect.

Nothing in from Scranton. Wilkes Barre is actually more of a dump than Scranton if that is possible.