PA-Rasmussen: Clinton's lead down to 10

[bullmoose88]

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

[bullmoose88]

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.

[bullmoose88]

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.

Does he have another registration ready for after the primary? If not, I'll make sure he gets one. 

Oh...mom and pa will surely switch back to the GOP, as will their friends. Don't worry about that, but do worry about them actually voting for Obama if John McCain goes too far right or plays dirty.  (which we feel he won't).

[bullmoose88]

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave

She should have a good night if she wins Bucks or Montco? Uh, no. She'd have an absolute landslide. If he doesn't win those two SE PA counties, it will be a horrible night for him.

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave

As phil said...I also posted about Bucks earlier this month, you may wish to read it (if I say so myself)

If He's not absolutely killing hillary in Montco and not givin her a good whippin in bucks...he's in trouble...not just of losing the state, but of keeping it reasonably close with the Hillster.

For Obama to win the state, which is unlikely, or to have a better than average night, he's going to need to perform well in Delaware and Chester too, and give Hillary a run for her money in the exurban areas outside of Philly.  Northeast PA is a lost cause and I dont think the T area dems will be obama friendly either, just as rural maryland and upstate new york weren't.

Obama needs to run strongly in Pittsburgh and in the more affluent suburbs which may be too Republican right now to have many voters, the democrats out there don't really fit his typical voter mold...which may change of course.