PA-Rasmussen: Clinton's lead down to 10

[Keystone Phil]

My nig is making a comeback.

I the double standards.

[Keystone Phil]

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.

Does he have another registration ready for after the primary? If not, I'll make sure he gets one. 

[Keystone Phil]

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave

She should have a good night if she wins Bucks or Montco? Uh, no. She'd have an absolute landslide. If he doesn't win those two SE PA counties, it will be a horrible night for him.

[Keystone Phil]

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave

Yes but lower Bucks is blue collar and Montco has some heavily Hispanic areas in Norristown (the county's biggest city).

[Keystone Phil]

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave

Yes but lower Bucks is blue collar and Montco has some heavily Hispanic areas in Norristown (the county's biggest city).

Uh, Norristown is 34.8% black and 10.5% Hispanic. Sounds pretty strong for Obama to me.

It's not as heavily Hispanic as I thought.