Home
2018
Election Results
Election Info
Weblog
Wiki
Search
Email
Site Info
Store
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
Did you miss your
activation email?
February 19, 2019, 11:39:57 am
News:
Please delete your old personal messages.
Atlas Forum
Election Archive
Election Archive
All Archived Boards
2008 Elections
virginia.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
[
2
]
3
Author
Topic: virginia. (Read 17300 times)
bullmoose88
YaBB God
Posts: 14,519
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #25 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:39:22 am »
Quote from: auburntiger on March 26, 2008, 12:23:13 am
Regardless of who's running, does anyone want to discuss VA itself...like i discussed in my previous post?
Its for lovers.
Logged
A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.
According to one poster, I represent a...
Quote from: Kalwejt Assange on December 13, 2010, 01:38:32 pm
Dying bread of Americans.
WalterMitty
YaBB God
Posts: 21,600
Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #26 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:41:18 am »
va is the state of my birth. great state. it is certainly worthy of discussion.
Logged
Quote from: Jim Bolivar di Griz on March 24, 2015, 08:31:18 am
Typical waltermitty.
Quote from: Oklahoma City: 20 years later on April 03, 2015, 05:34:19 am
I come out the winner in all this. I am the honest guy.
bullmoose88
YaBB God
Posts: 14,519
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #27 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:44:08 am »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 26, 2008, 12:41:18 am
va is the state of my birth. great state. it is certainly worthy of discussion.
commonwealth damnit...commonwealth.
Logged
A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.
According to one poster, I represent a...
Quote from: Kalwejt Assange on December 13, 2010, 01:38:32 pm
Dying bread of Americans.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
Posts: 52,705
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #28 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:44:41 am »
Quote from: bullmoose88 on March 26, 2008, 12:44:08 am
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 26, 2008, 12:41:18 am
va is the state of my birth. great state. it is certainly worthy of discussion.
commonwealth damnit...commonwealth.
My second favorite commonwealth.
Logged
Quote from: Reaganfan on February 17, 2015, 06:17:37 am
The entire country is pretty much Republican.
bullmoose88
YaBB God
Posts: 14,519
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #29 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:45:35 am »
Quote from: President Keystone Phil on March 26, 2008, 12:44:41 am
Quote from: bullmoose88 on March 26, 2008, 12:44:08 am
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 26, 2008, 12:41:18 am
va is the state of my birth. great state. it is certainly worthy of discussion.
commonwealth damnit...commonwealth.
My second favorite commonwealth.
homer
Logged
A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.
According to one poster, I represent a...
Quote from: Kalwejt Assange on December 13, 2010, 01:38:32 pm
Dying bread of Americans.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
Posts: 52,705
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #30 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:46:01 am »
Quote from: bullmoose88 on March 26, 2008, 12:45:35 am
Quote from: President Keystone Phil on March 26, 2008, 12:44:41 am
Quote from: bullmoose88 on March 26, 2008, 12:44:08 am
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 26, 2008, 12:41:18 am
va is the state of my birth. great state. it is certainly worthy of discussion.
commonwealth damnit...commonwealth.
My second favorite commonwealth.
homer
Huh?
Logged
Quote from: Reaganfan on February 17, 2015, 06:17:37 am
The entire country is pretty much Republican.
WalterMitty
YaBB God
Posts: 21,600
Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #31 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:51:44 am »
pa is my second favorite commonwealth. maybe third behind the ma.
Logged
Quote from: Jim Bolivar di Griz on March 24, 2015, 08:31:18 am
Typical waltermitty.
Quote from: Oklahoma City: 20 years later on April 03, 2015, 05:34:19 am
I come out the winner in all this. I am the honest guy.
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
Posts: 31,193
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #32 on:
March 26, 2008, 12:55:52 am »
Campaign away in Virginia liberals! You'll do great there, just like you did in '04!
Logged
Saff
MATCHU[D]
YaBB God
Posts: 6,670
Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.09
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #33 on:
March 26, 2008, 09:52:11 am »
I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.
Logged
Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred
MikeyCNY
YaBB God
Posts: 1,183
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: -4.87
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #34 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:03:26 am »
The only possible way Virginia would have gone Dem is if Mark Warner were the Democratic nominee, or if Dems ran a crypto-confederate like Jim Webb.
McCain will win VA by close to double-digits, especially up againt Obama or Hillary. And he wouldn't even have to try, either.
I agree, NOVA will go to Obama by huge margins. All the Democrats I know here are diehard Obama supporters, but unfortuntaley the Arlington-Alexandria liberal vote won't be enough to overcome the rest of the state, which is solidly red.
Logged
Smash255
YaBB God
Posts: 14,873
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #35 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:18:11 am »
Quote from: bullmoose88 on March 25, 2008, 11:44:29 pm
Quote from: Smash255 on March 25, 2008, 11:42:27 pm
The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average. If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend. Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia. In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.
My math and econometrics professors always warned against taking trends from the last data point or two and extrapolating forward.
It would be more conservative and wiser to say take the trend back from say 88 or 92 and seeing where that put VA.
In 96 it was 10.46% more GOP than nationally, 8.54% in 2000 & 5.74% in 04. So the trend of 2-3 points nationally has been going on since 96. Just looking at what is going on in Virginia, and Northern VA in particular it looks like the Dem trend has even gained more steam. A trend doen't mean the trend will continue, but their is no evidence that the trend in VA is reversing itself, slowing down, and if anything it seems like the trend is picking up steam.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
Posts: 21,210
Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #36 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:21:54 am »
Quote from: Thoughts Of A Dying Atheist on March 26, 2008, 09:52:11 am
I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.
The entusiasm for Obama when he visted Charleston was huge when Kerry endorsed him. The enthusiasm here at UNC-Chapel Hill is huge for him. That doesn't mean he'll win the Carolinas now, does it?
I think VA is a stage that is distracting the Dems so much that McCain will be able to pick off Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and maybe Wisconsin without the Dems noticing.
Go ahead and dump tons of money there. There are too many veterans there to lose the state for McCain.
Logged
Smash255
YaBB God
Posts: 14,873
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #37 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:23:15 am »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 25, 2008, 11:46:55 pm
yes nova has been trending (i hate that term) democrat.
but keep in mind who is the republican nominee. not george w.bush. john mccain. it seems to me he is very acceptable to many suburbanites.
he wont win nova, but i think he can slow the bleeding.
the McCain of 2000 would have been better prepared to stop the bleeding than the McCain of 2008. That maverick appeal he had is gone, may have it still in some moderate suburban areas, but not NOVA. The area is just morphing into full blown Democratic at this point. Not to mention Obama is an excellent candidate in Northern VA for a General.
Logged
Smash255
YaBB God
Posts: 14,873
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #38 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am »
Quote from: AHDuke99 on March 26, 2008, 10:21:54 am
Quote from: Thoughts Of A Dying Atheist on March 26, 2008, 09:52:11 am
I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.
The entusiasm for Obama when he visted Charleston was huge when Kerry endorsed him. The enthusiasm here at UNC-Chapel Hill is huge for him. That doesn't mean he'll win the Carolinas now, does it?
I think VA is a stage that is distracting the Dems so much that McCain will be able to pick off Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and maybe Wisconsin without the Dems noticing.
Go ahead and dump tons of money there. There are too many veterans there to lose the state for McCain.
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
Logged
Saff
MATCHU[D]
YaBB God
Posts: 6,670
Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.09
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #39 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:27:07 am »
Quote from: AHDuke99 on March 26, 2008, 10:21:54 am
Quote from: Thoughts Of A Dying Atheist on March 26, 2008, 09:52:11 am
I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.
The entusiasm for Obama when he visted Charleston was huge when Kerry endorsed him. The enthusiasm here at UNC-Chapel Hill is huge for him. That doesn't mean he'll win the Carolinas now, does it?
I think VA is a stage that is distracting the Dems so much that McCain will be able to pick off Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and maybe Wisconsin without the Dems noticing.
Go ahead and dump tons of money there. There are too many veterans there to lose the state for McCain.
Notice how I even said in my post that I didnt expect Obama to win just based on the enthusiasm in my state. If you would have actually read my post entirely you would have noticed, and not randomly attack me like a moron. And for the record, I dont expect Obama to win the Carolinas.
Logged
Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred
MikeyCNY
YaBB God
Posts: 1,183
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: -4.87
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #40 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am »
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
Logged
Smash255
YaBB God
Posts: 14,873
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #41 on:
March 26, 2008, 10:34:15 am »
Quote from: Michael.DC on March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a 50/50 type of election
VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
Posts: 14,519
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #42 on:
March 26, 2008, 11:20:44 am »
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:34:15 am
Quote from: Michael.DC on March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a 50/50 type of election
VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally
But Obama isn't white, and you forget that PA is Philly plus Alabama and Pittsburgh...I dont know if Obama can hold the same coalition as say Hillary/Kerry/Gore/Willy
Logged
A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.
According to one poster, I represent a...
Quote from: Kalwejt Assange on December 13, 2010, 01:38:32 pm
Dying bread of Americans.
Smash255
YaBB God
Posts: 14,873
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #43 on:
March 26, 2008, 11:24:52 am »
Quote from: bullmoose88 on March 26, 2008, 11:20:44 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:34:15 am
Quote from: Michael.DC on March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a 50/50 type of election
VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally
But Obama isn't white, and you forget that PA is Philly plus Alabama and Pittsburgh...I dont know if Obama can hold the same coalition as say Hillary/Kerry/Gore/Willy
When it comes down to it I don't think Obama will really be hurt by his race. For the most part most of those who would never vote for a black man are already voting GOP. Those who are Democrats, working class white Democrats especially may prefer a white person and would go for Hillary in the Primary, would want Hillary over Obama in part because of race, but would take Obama over McCain because of economics. I did take the race issue somewhat into consideration, took about 1-2 points compared to the national average off of PA (it was 5% more Dem in 04) but I also think Obama does better in Bucks and Chester than Kerry did.
Logged
jesmo
YaBB God
Posts: 571
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #44 on:
March 26, 2008, 11:26:10 am »
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:34:15 am
Quote from: Michael.DC on March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a 50/50 type of election
VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally
You can't expect everything to swing perfectly from 2004 forever and ever. However, considering who you are, I won't take you seriously.
Logged
I have two pet rats!
Saff
MATCHU[D]
YaBB God
Posts: 6,670
Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.09
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #45 on:
March 26, 2008, 11:32:49 am »
Quote from: jesmo on March 26, 2008, 11:26:10 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:34:15 am
Quote from: Michael.DC on March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a 50/50 type of election
VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally
You can't expect everything to swing perfectly from 2004 forever and ever.
However, considering who you are, I won't take you seriously.
lol looks whos talking.
Logged
Smash255
YaBB God
Posts: 14,873
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #46 on:
March 26, 2008, 01:56:51 pm »
Quote from: jesmo on March 26, 2008, 11:26:10 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:34:15 am
Quote from: Michael.DC on March 26, 2008, 10:28:30 am
Quote from: Smash255 on March 26, 2008, 10:25:47 am
Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI
ROTFLMAO!
Uh.... no.
You fail.
For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a 50/50 type of election
VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally
You can't expect everything to swing perfectly from 2004 forever and ever. However, considering who you are, I won't take you seriously.
Ahh yes coming from the person who tried to make a half serious predictioon about Oklahoma. Now, who knows when you are being serious or just down right being an idiotic troll...
Now I never suggested everything is going to be like it was in 04, or trend the same way (for example I had PA back tracking a bit). However, do you have any evidence to contradict what i stated about where those states will fall compared to the national average from 04. Do you have any reasoning on that? Or you just bbeinga little sarcastic runt who is uncapable of having a serious discussion?
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
YaBB God
Posts: 30,387
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #47 on:
March 26, 2008, 02:09:42 pm »
Obama will probably lose, but there is an outside chance he could win. In all probability, though, Obama will lose 52-47.
Logged
Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:
"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear. I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments. Let me be clear on this."
Adlai Stevenson
YaBB God
Posts: 3,409
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #48 on:
March 26, 2008, 02:15:54 pm »
I believe in the power of Obama, but I still think McCain will probably win:
VIRGINIA PRESIDENTIAL RACE -
51% (R) McCain
48% (D) Obama
VIRGINIA SENATE RACE -
56% (D) Warner
41% (R) Gilmore
Logged
[img/http://blog.pennlive.com/thrive/2007/08/WINEHOUSE1.jpgimg]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpJQq8MoR-g
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
Posts: 40,644
Re: virginia.
«
Reply #49 on:
March 26, 2008, 04:43:36 pm »
Quote from: AHDuke99 on March 26, 2008, 10:21:54 am
Quote from: Thoughts Of A Dying Atheist on March 26, 2008, 09:52:11 am
I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.
Go ahead and dump tons of money there. There are too many veterans there to lose the state for McCain.
McCain has no more support among veterans than any other Republican.
Logged
f
uck nazis
Pages:
1
[
2
]
3
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
=> U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results
=> Presidential Election Process
===> Polling
=> Presidential Election Trends
=> Election What-ifs?
===> Past Election What-ifs (US)
===> Alternative Elections
===> International What-ifs
-----------------------------
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections
===> 2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=> Congressional Elections
===> 2020 Senatorial Election Polls
=> International Elections
=> Election Predictions
-----------------------------
About this Site
-----------------------------
=> The Atlas
===> How To
-----------------------------
General Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Constitution and Law
=> Religion & Philosophy
=> History
===> Alternative History
-----------------------------
General Politics
-----------------------------
=> U.S. General Discussion
=> Political Geography & Demographics
=> International General Discussion
=> Economics
=> Individual Politics
=> Political Debate
===> Political Essays & Deliberation
===> Book Reviews and Discussion
-----------------------------
Election Archive
-----------------------------
=> Election Archive
===> All Archived Boards
=====> 2018 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2016 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=======> 2014 House Election Polls
=======> 2014 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2012 Elections
=======> 2012 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2012 House Election Polls
=======> 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=======> 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=======> 2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2010 Elections
=======> 2010 House Election Polls
=======> 2010 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 Elections
=======> 2008 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2008 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=======> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=======> 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=======> 2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2006 Elections
=======> 2006 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
=======> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=======> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
=====> Town Hall
=====> Survivor
-----------------------------
Forum Community
-----------------------------
=> Forum Community
===> Forum Community Election Match-ups
=> Election and History Games
===> Mock Parliment
=> Off-topic Board
-----------------------------
Atlas Fantasy Elections
-----------------------------
=> Atlas Fantasy Elections
===> Voting Booth
=> Atlas Fantasy Government
===> Constitutional Convention
===> Regional Governments
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Powered by SMF 1.1.21
|
SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
Loading...