ohio?

[WalterMitty]

doubtful.

[Tender Branson]

Ask me again in Mid-July.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

doubtful.

Agreed. But I wouldn't rule it out.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'm an Obama supporter, but, damn, I'm really not feelin' Ohio and Florida.  It's early, but if I'm still banking on Colorado and Virginia to come through for my boy in October I'll be worried. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think he will, by a close margin.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I don't think he'll do any worse than Kerry did, especially when the Republicans can't throw gays under the bus like they did last election.

[tik 🪀✨]

I think he could pull it off, but it would be a lot of work. It is, of course, impossible to say right now.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I don't think he'll do any worse than Kerry did, especially when the Republicans can't throw gays under the bus like they did last election.

I don't understand the point you made that I bolded.

[elcorazon]

I think he has a pretty good shot of winning Ohio.  IF he ultimately wins the popular vote, I believe he will also ultimately win Ohio.  Mostly depends on how the campaign goes all year.  If he struggles, has more issues pop up or has other negatives exposed throughout the year, then I think Ohio is a state where his support could dry up.

If the Wright issue fades and he is able to battle McCain head to head, I think his support will grow and he will win Ohio (and likely the Presidency).  Florida, I don't see him winning.

However, I don't believe Hillary would win Florida either.  I think she would win Ohio, but her victory is no more assured than Obama's.  The state is clearly a battleground with either nominee.  And Hillary needs it more than Obama as she is weaker in Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and is less likely to pull out the other Western states that might be winnable for Obama (not to mention Virginia, although truthfully, I have my doubts that she would do much worse than Obama in Virginia anyway).

[Boris]

Don't know, but he'll do much worse than Kerry relative to the national popular vote. So, probably not.

[Lunar]

This is an absurd question since it depends on the margin of the Obama victory.  If McCain has a mild heart attack and everyone perceives him as old and frail and warmongering, then Obama could easily with Ohio with union support.

Why not ask if this is a close election, which way Ohio will fall.  And, since I assume you are trying to make a petty point out of it, ask the same for Clinton.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't think he'll do any worse than Kerry did, especially when the Republicans can't throw gays under the bus like they did last election.

I don't understand the point you made that I bolded.

The whole gay marriage issue brought up by the GOP.  Exit polls showed that moral issues were very high on voters' minds in 2004... not that they should have been. 

[Ben.]

Who ever the Democrat nominee is they have a lot of advantages going for them in OH, Obama is probably the harder sell in such a blue collar state, but at the same time Clinton would face a whole raft of different problems across the rust-belt if she were the nominee... so either way i think the Democrats are favoured to carry the state regardless of their nominee, although i think Obama would be far better placed to compensate for a loss there than Clinton would.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Can he win Ohio? Probably not. His race will get him slaughtered in southern Ohio, and the margins everywhere else won't be enough to catapult him to victory.

[ukchris82]

I can't see it happening.
It would be nice to see the results by party.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Highly Unlikely.

If Obama does not do well in Ohio (that's if he's the Democratic nominee this year), then I'm doubting his chances in the Keystone state, though that's a different matter all together.

[Reaganfan]

It's possible, but unlikely, IMO.

[phk]

In the situation of holding all Kerry states but not gaining Ohio. (For any Dem)

Would be a tall order to win after that. It would take 3-4 smallish states to make it up.

[Colin]

Possibly. He'd have to cobble together a different coalition than the one the Democrats have usually relied upon and create some sort of suburbanite, young people, minorities coalition to succeed.

[Josh/Devilman88]

To soon to tell. Once Obama wins the nom and start the real fun then we will be able to tell.

[Mr.Phips]

In the situation of holding all Kerry states but not gaining Ohio. (For any Dem)

Would be a tall order to win after that. It would take 3-4 smallish states to make it up.

He can make up for Ohio by taking three out of Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.

[auburntiger]

It's hard to know at this point. my gut feeling says no. even if he does win the election, it's mistaken to say he'll win OH because he won the popular vote. states vote how they vote regardless of a national trend. states go against the trend all the time. it could be the case with Ohio. conversely colorado could swing hard  left this year

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Definitely not (neither would Clinton).

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Definitely not (neither would Clinton).

I would say that Hillary would have a better chance at winning the Buckeye State against John McCain than in an McCain/Obama matchup.

[Beet]

Just occured to me... what if the 2008 result is a carbon copy of the 2004 result... i.e. every state falls the way it did four years ago? Or maybe only one state like New Mexico flips. How depressing would that be?