Let's play armchair quarterback
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Question: Did Hillary undestimate the Big O?  
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Author Topic: Let's play armchair quarterback  (Read 3238 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2008, 03:42:20 PM »

1-Actually tried to compete in the caucus states instead of just ignoring all of them and then afterwards arguing that they don't matter anyway (a very insulting talking point that backfired on her totally. Probably one of the reasons for her brutal February losing streak.)

I don't think it was meant to be insulting. I think the argument was that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of electability in the general election, also that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of the popular will either. Penn statement about "significant states" might have been insulting, but it was also part of a strategy. He wouldn't have said that if the situations were reversed.

Her wording of it was in the worst possible way however. The basis premise is valid, a win in California is more important than a win in Kansas, yes. But you don't need to argue this by saying "I won all the states that count and Obama won all the states that don't count." Some of the periphery talking points were also ridiculous, like that she's the only candidate who can win California and New York in the general. No caucuses aren't accurate predictors of electability in the general election, but neither are primaries, was Phil Angelides the best candidate for California Governor? Was Randy Graf the best candidate for AZ-08?

She also took it way too far. It wasn't just caucuses. That state doesn't count because it's too black. That state doesn't count because there's too many latte liberals. That state doesn't count because it's a red state (Oh and then she went and staked her entire campaign on Texas and Ohio.) It basically boiled down to "The only states that count are the ones that vote for me" and it became a joke. People began to talk about how they were proud residents of a state that didn't count. Remember Joe's old sig?

1) I doubt they were looking forward to a long and divisive primary. Who can blame them? It's not good for the party. It would have been better for everything to have been resolved on Super Tuesday-- one way or the other.

This is politics. You can't assume that things will go the best way or that you'll get what you want. Maybe resolving things after Super Tuesday would be better. But that doesn't mean you can assume it'll happen and put on blinders to the scenario if it doesn't happen.

Besides as I said, even I saw that coming. Hillary actually achieved her Super Tuesday goals, which was to win all the big states (except Illinois) and then figure that'll propel her to the nomination. And she did, but it didn't work. And it's not surprising either, did she really think she could say "OK, Obama has slightly more delegates and won more states and still has broad support but I won California so let's just anoint me and then pack up and go home."?

2) The post-super Tuesday states were not favorable. She might have had a chance in Maine, but even with stronger organizing, Nebraska and Washington were likely out of reach. Still, it's true that she could have cut down the margins.

Yes. But you can't play Rudy Giuliani in politics and just ignore everywhere that doesn't favor you. If she had kept down the margins a bit, she might've been able to come back in terms of delegates in a scenario that's actually realistic and not J. J.'s masturbatory fantasy. The problem wasn't just that she lost, it was that it was all blowouts. Much like how Giuliani would've been on better terms if he had actually won a non-negligible portion of the vote in the pre-Florida states even if he didn't win any. At least look like you have strong support. And she didn't wash all of that away on March 4th either, especially considering she barely made a dent in Obama's delegate lead and led by much bigger margins before the brutal streak in those states. Had she made post-Super Tuesday plans, she could've lost by moderate numbers, then bounced back with landslides on March 4 and at least have been competitive in delegate numbers now instead of being told to drop out because it and all potential future wins are too little, too late.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #26 on: April 01, 2008, 03:53:17 PM »

Divorce Bill back in 1999, and marry Barack Obama.
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Beet
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« Reply #27 on: April 01, 2008, 04:02:18 PM »

That state doesn't count because it's too black. That state doesn't count because there's too many latte liberals. That state doesn't count because it's a red state (Oh and then she went and staked her entire campaign on Texas and Ohio.) It basically boiled down to "The only states that count are the ones that vote for me" and it became a joke. People began to talk about how they were proud residents of a state that didn't count. Remember Joe's old sig?

True, and that was basically Obama's coalition: caucus states + large black populations + latte liberals. If you want to break it down that way. Of course, it's possible to lose a Dem primary campaign with that coalition. There are a bunch of other intangibles to consider. But in terms of mentality from team Clinton it set the bar too low for them to not compete in any of his coalition and that was a mistake.

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She was probably hoping for a solid 5-10 point (instead of 0.5) or more lead in the popular vote and a 100+ delegate vote lead. However, the last week before Super Tuesday was utterly brutal for Clinton and no one could have anticipated-- Obama delivered his best speech in a campaign of good speeches after South Carolina and basically every news outlet was overwhelmingly positive for Obama; they completely shut out the results in Florida and they made him peak at just the right moment.

But you can't play Rudy Giuliani in politics and just ignore everywhere that doesn't favor you.

That's depends on the circumstances. She took a huge gamble on Iowa even though the conventional wisdom was that the politics didn't favor her, and it was a massively blown investment.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #28 on: April 01, 2008, 04:27:25 PM »

That state doesn't count because it's too black. That state doesn't count because there's too many latte liberals. That state doesn't count because it's a red state (Oh and then she went and staked her entire campaign on Texas and Ohio.) It basically boiled down to "The only states that count are the ones that vote for me" and it became a joke. People began to talk about how they were proud residents of a state that didn't count. Remember Joe's old sig?

True, and that was basically Obama's coalition: caucus states + large black populations + latte liberals. If you want to break it down that way. Of course, it's possible to lose a Dem primary campaign with that coalition. There are a bunch of other intangibles to consider. But in terms of mentality from team Clinton it set the bar too low for them to not compete in any of his coalition and that was a mistake.

And at the very least they could've at least spun losses among that coalition by not rudely dismissing the people in them. All it's done is backfire by increasing turnout. Do you think youth support for Obama would be so massive if it wasn't for the subtle ageism of Hillary's campaign and the blatant ageism of some of her supporters? (Not obvious on this forum, but very obvious on others.)

She was probably hoping for a solid 5-10 point (instead of 0.5) or more lead in the popular vote and a 100+ delegate vote lead. However, the last week before Super Tuesday was utterly brutal for Clinton and no one could have anticipated-- Obama delivered his best speech in a campaign of good speeches after South Carolina and basically every news outlet was overwhelmingly positive for Obama; they completely shut out the results in Florida and they made him peak at just the right moment.

And yet, Obama still lost California. What if he didn't? Sure in hindsight, we know that would've ended Hillary's campaign long ago, but it was a realistic possibility, and you'd think Hillary would've at least prepared for that. Turns out she couldn't even prepare for a substanial win in California that wasn't backed up by wins elsewhere.

As I said, Super Tuesday wasn't even a defeat for Hillary. It was a draw. She didn't even prepare for a draw.

That's depends on the circumstances. She took a huge gamble on Iowa even though the conventional wisdom was that the politics didn't favor her, and it was a massively blown investment.

Iowa is one state. And not a very big one either. Not 5 states as in Giuliani's case, or 11 states as in Hillary's, containing a few fairly delegate rich states in each case.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #29 on: April 01, 2008, 09:20:51 PM »

One of the big mistakes of the Clinton campaign was her annoying surrogates referring to states she didn't win as small states, or states with large black populations, or caucus states.

They are states, period, every bit as American as anywhere else in the country.
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