PA PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama take small lead over Clinton.

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-04-01

Summary:

Obama:	45%
Clinton:	43%
Other:	-1%
Undecided:	13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Aizen]

what

[Joe Republic]

Other: -1%

Poor John Edwards.  The guy just can't catch a break.

[ChrisFromNJ]

This seems like an outlier, but it's nice to see that we might indeed have a competitive race on April 22nd instead of the Clinton blowout many were predicting.

[J. J.]

It shows a 28 point shift to Obama in less than three weeks.

[Wiz in Wis]

Inconcievable! Hillary! You were supposed to be this colossus. You were this great, legendary thing. And yet he gains!

[minionofmidas]

Poor PPP, too non-credible outliers in a row.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama is not leading here, but he is closing the gap and I don't think Hillary can survive a narrow win here much less a narrow defeat.  She absolutely must win convincingly and it looks like that's not going to happen. 

Good for the party, this nomination process needs to end and the focus must be turned to McCain, whose been getting a free pass for nearly a year. 

[Alcon]

Poor PPP, too non-credible outliers in a row.

Which is a shame, because they were doing really well before this.

[agcatter]

As Vorlon is fond of saying "its just one poll"

However, further confirmation that the gap has closed.  I suspect Hillary wins the state by the high single digits but that's not what she needs.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Poor PPP, too non-credible outliers in a row.

What is the other non-credible outlier they did?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The one with Hillary up by 26.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Not gonna buy this one.

[Tender Branson]

PPP has been very accurate so far and it´s also the newst poll, newer than SUSA for example. I don´t really think Obama is ahead, but together with Quinnipiac I think Obama is now in the single-digits against Clinton. I think Obama will win PA when I see 3 polls in a row that have him ahead by 5 in the last days before the primary ....

[Eraserhead]

If only it were real...

[minionofmidas]

Poor PPP, too non-credible outliers in a row.

What is the other non-credible outlier they did?

The one with Hillary up by 26.

Yeah. These were in a row in the sense of being consecutive PPP polls of Pennsylvania; I suppose they released polls of elsewhere in between. Of course, the first of those was at the height of the Wright spamfluff, which partly explains it.

[Lief 🗽]

No, I refuse to get burned by a big, Clinton-favored state again. Obama is still down 10 points.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

What The?

Obama won't win the Pennsylvania Primary on April 22, we all know that. However if he can close the gap to about 5 points, it will be a psychological win for the Obama Campaign. Remember back in March 1972, when Ed Muskie had a massive lead over all his opponents, then McGovern brought Muskie's landslide margin to 9 points. If Obama can do that, he'll have the Big Mo once again.

[Padfoot]

Poor PPP, too non-credible outliers in a row.

What is the other non-credible outlier they did?

The one with Hillary up by 26.

Yeah. These were in a row in the sense of being consecutive PPP polls of Pennsylvania; I suppose they released polls of elsewhere in between. Of course, the first of those was at the height of the Wright spamfluff, which partly explains it.

I'm not going to judge them until they offer their final poll.  For Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin they released a poll two days before the election and they pretty much nailed all three of those.  I'm going to take this poll simply as an indication that Obama is closing the gap but he's probably at least 5 points behind in reality.

[Keystone Phil]

Uh, yeah, when I heard this in work, I almost fell over.

[Democratic Hawk]

If Obama does win PA, something I consider most unlikely, then he's clearly gaining support among Clinton's base as well as consolidating support among his own

Signs are that Obama is certainly closing in on Clinton, but whether it holds or her lead narrows even further, is another matter. Much can happen in the 19 days that remain between now and April 22, which could shift things clearly one way or the other

Were Obama to secure a small but consistent lead, then there are grounds for optimism. Question is how many voters will be undecided come the day and how will they break on the day?

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Poor PPP, too non-credible outliers in a row.

What is the other non-credible outlier they did?

The one with Hillary up by 26.

Yeah. These were in a row in the sense of being consecutive PPP polls of Pennsylvania; I suppose they released polls of elsewhere in between. Of course, the first of those was at the height of the Wright spamfluff, which partly explains it.

I'm not going to judge them until they offer their final poll.  For Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin they released a poll two days before the election and they pretty much nailed all three of those.

Ah, but the question is: Is that because of genuine movement, or because their sampling model works only once everybody has made up their minds? Given that polls are always perceived as sort-of-predictions, and that as soon as you use sampling, likely voter scans etc, this perception isn't even altogether unfair ... a good pollster (as opposed to decentish) should have semi-decent results much earlier than that.

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Eh. Winning by just 5 points would be equivalent to losing by considerably more than 10 in Wisconsin - ie a good point for a decent exit from the race. Sort of doubt it, though. More likely about 10-12 points.