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  PA PrimD: Muhlenberg College: Clinton leads Obama by 10
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Author Topic: PA PrimD: Muhlenberg College: Clinton leads Obama by 10  (Read 1304 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 04, 2008, 09:43:00 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Muhlenberg College on 2008-04-02

Summary:
Clinton:
51%
Obama:
41%
Other:
2%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2008, 11:40:59 am »

Worthless uni poll.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2008, 01:58:48 pm »


Except for the PPP polls, and one Rasmussen, I think all the polls have been coming in about Clinton by 9-12 points.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2008, 04:52:39 pm »


Except for the PPP polls, and one Rasmussen, I think all the polls have been coming in about Clinton by 9-12 points.

Not quite:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?fips=42

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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2008, 01:14:38 am »


Except for the PPP polls, and one Rasmussen, I think all the polls have been coming in about Clinton by 9-12 points.

Not quite:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?fips=42

(Useful ap to learn how to use)

OK, a third one, which I didn't see with the third post.  I'm still seeing a tightening, but not yet a collapse.
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2008, 01:18:07 am »

That has nothing to do with the fact that as a uni poll that isn't Quinnipiac, it is automatically complete crap regardless of what the results say. All non-Quinnpiac uni polls are 100% garbage, end of story.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2008, 08:24:08 am »

That has nothing to do with the fact that as a uni poll that isn't Quinnipiac, it is automatically complete crap regardless of what the results say. All non-Quinnpiac uni polls are 100% garbage, end of story.

If yiu remember NH, though I'm sure your best to forget it, the University of Suffolk polls were actually the closest (but off by 7). 
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2008, 10:29:01 am »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 10:39:28 am by Alcon »

That has nothing to do with the fact that as a uni poll that isn't Quinnipiac, it is automatically complete crap regardless of what the results say. All non-Quinnpiac uni polls are 100% garbage, end of story.

If yiu remember NH, though I'm sure your best to forget it, the University of Suffolk polls were actually the closest (but off by 7). 

Suffolk's only other poll I remember was a Kerry-friendly poll out of NH in a time when Bush clearly led nationally (and almost certainly in NH).

There's no reason to believe they didn't just get lucky, as universities often do.

And I'm not sure what you're trying to prove - we shouldn't default to assuming uni polls are garbage because Suffolk was right once?

Edit: Fairness to Suffolk - Rasmussen also committed the sacrilege of disagreeing with Mason-Dixon a few days later.  I think there's a reasonable implication that Suffolk's poll may be decent.  Muhlenberg, not so much.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2008, 12:31:13 pm »



Suffolk's only other poll I remember was a Kerry-friendly poll out of NH in a time when Bush clearly led nationally (and almost certainly in NH).

There's no reason to believe they didn't just get lucky, as universities often do.

And I'm not sure what you're trying to prove - we shouldn't default to assuming uni polls are garbage because Suffolk was right once?

Edit: Fairness to Suffolk - Rasmussen also committed the sacrilege of disagreeing with Mason-Dixon a few days later.  I think there's a reasonable implication that Suffolk's poll may be decent.  Muhlenberg, not so much.

I am saying, we shouldn't assume that college polls are "garbage."  They are another piece of the puzzle.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2008, 06:27:55 am »

Historically, I think those PA Uni polls are off, but not THAT off. And sometimes they come within striking distance. I obviously wouldn't trust them over a credible poll but I wouldn't completely disregard them either. This one seems reasonably close, for instance. We're not talking ARG, after all. Wink
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