IN PrimD: Research 2000: Clinton by 3 in IN

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Indiana President by Research 2000 on 2008-04-02

Summary:

Clinton:	49%
Obama:	46%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

Kewl.

[TomC]

Why does it say only 5 people were polled? What is the real number?

[© tweed]

Why does it say only 5 people were polled? What is the real number?

400L

[Lief 🗽]

Indiana is really one of the first states this primary cycle (after January, at least) where Clinton and Obama have started out basically tied. Should be interesting.

[Alcon]

Indiana is really one of the first states this primary cycle (after January, at least) where Clinton and Obama have started out basically tied. Should be interesting.

I really don't think they did.  Demographically, Indiana's natural tilt seems Clinton-friendly to me.  Maybe I'm totally wrong, though.  I've already demonstrated my ignorance about the state.

[Smash255]

Indiana is really one of the first states this primary cycle (after January, at least) where Clinton and Obama have started out basically tied. Should be interesting.

I really don't think they did.  Demographically, Indiana's natural tilt seems Clinton-friendly to me.  Maybe I'm totally wrong, though.  I've already demonstrated my ignorance about the state.

It is in some ways, but I would say its a slight tilt.  Being a Senator from a neighboring state helps Obama somewhat, especially in the Chicago suburbs whose Democrats also tend to be more liberal than most of the state.   democrats in Indianapolis proper  & Bloomington are fairly liberal.  Outside of that the state does have a bit of a Clinton edge.  The state is only about 9.5% black, though the dem Primary will probably be 20% or so African American.  Outside of the areas that I mentioned the state does have a fairly large amount of working class white Democrats which obviously favors Clinton.  All in all I think its a state that can pretty much go anyway, and will likely be determined by momentum after PA.  If Obama is within single digits in PA, especially low single digits its pretty much over and he takes PA (and obviously if he wins the state).  If clinton gets into the double digits especially if she is in the 13 or 14 point + range she probably will wind up taking IN.

[Alcon]

It is in some ways, but I would say its a slight tilt.  Being a Senator from a neighboring state helps Obama somewhat, especially in the Chicago suburbs whose Democrats also tend to be more liberal than most of the state.

The Chicago "suburbs" in Indiana are really very working-class towns, many with Hispanic populations.  I'm not sure that I'd call Gary a "suburb"...just a very black city that happens to be near Chicago.

democrats in Indianapolis proper  & Bloomington are fairly liberal.  Outside of that the state does have a bit of a Clinton edge.

True.  But keep in mind that there are very few Democrats in the Indy suburbs.

The state is only about 9.5% black, though the dem Primary will probably be 20% or so African American.

More like 12%.  The whites would have to be hugely Republican, and blacks turnout in incredible numbers, to more than double.

[Tender Branson]

Makes sense.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's some figures on Hispanic vs. Black voting:

Let's assume we have a county that's 10% black and 10% Hispanic. First, what's turnout going to be? In many places Hispanic turnout will be just awful. Take a look at which districts in California Hillary received the least number of raw votes. They weren't strong Obama districts. But in this county we'll assume 7 Hispanics turn out for every 10 blacks.

Second, how many are Democrats? 2/3 of Hispanics. A lot, yes, but nowhere near 9 out of 10: the number for blacks. With the turnout figures that equals roughly half as many Hispanics as Democratic voters than blacks.

And how will they vote? Blacks are voting 85-90% for Obama, Hispanics around 2/3 again for Hillary. So if you crunch the numbers the results among the black/Hispanic population in an area where they're equal is over 67% for Obama. That's before the white vote is factored in, but once again, this is with an equal number.

[Alcon]

Here's some figures on Hispanic vs. Black voting:

Let's assume we have a county that's 10% black and 10% Hispanic. First, what's turnout going to be? In many places Hispanic turnout will be just awful. Take a look at which districts in California Hillary received the least number of raw votes. They weren't strong Obama districts. But in this county we'll assume 7 Hispanics turn out for every 10 blacks.

Second, how many are Democrats? 2/3 of Hispanics. A lot, yes, but nowhere near 9 out of 10: the number for blacks. With the turnout figures that equals roughly half as many Hispanics as Democratic voters than blacks.

And how will they vote? Blacks are voting 85-90% for Obama, Hispanics around 2/3 again for Hillary. So if you crunch the numbers the results among the black/Hispanic population in an area where they're equal is over 67% for Obama. That's before the white vote is factored in, but once again, this is with an equal number.

I wasn't arguing that it will make Lake County Clinton territory.  I was showing that considering Lake County a suburb like the "ring counties" of Chicago makes no sense at all.

And then I looked up Lake County and realized I have no idea what it's like outside of Gary, but it's 2/3 white and they are not rich whites.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dear old George Wallace polled about 16% in Lake county.

[Smash255]

It is in some ways, but I would say its a slight tilt.  Being a Senator from a neighboring state helps Obama somewhat, especially in the Chicago suburbs whose Democrats also tend to be more liberal than most of the state.

The Chicago "suburbs" in Indiana are really very working-class towns, many with Hispanic populations.  I'm not sure that I'd call Gary a "suburb"...just a very black city that happens to be near Chicago.

democrats in Indianapolis proper  & Bloomington are fairly liberal.  Outside of that the state does have a bit of a Clinton edge.

True.  But keep in mind that there are very few Democrats in the Indy suburbs.

The state is only about 9.5% black, though the dem Primary will probably be 20% or so African American.

More like 12%.  The whites would have to be hugely Republican, and blacks turnout in incredible numbers, to more than double.

If you look at states such as S.C, AL, African Americans in the Dem Primary made up twice the overall state number.  They are expected to make up about 20% of the PA Primary, a statw chich is only a couple % more African American than idiana, and whites in Indiana are more Republican than whites in PA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

[Sam Spade]

This thread is highly amusing.

[Nym90]

Indiana is really one of the first states this primary cycle (after January, at least) where Clinton and Obama have started out basically tied. Should be interesting.

I really don't think they did.  Demographically, Indiana's natural tilt seems Clinton-friendly to me.  Maybe I'm totally wrong, though.  I've already demonstrated my ignorance about the state.

Being a Senator from a neighboring state helps Obama somewhat

I'm assuming BRTD is going to rip you mercilessly for making that statement. Right?

If Obama wins Indiana, it's all over. It's definitely a must win for Clinton. In reality, North Carolina probably is, too. It's not enough for her to trade wins with Obama from here on out.

[Smash255]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

[Gustaf]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

So...the similarity between Indiana and South Carolina is that whites are Republican and blacks Democratic. Ok!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

Indianapolis does not = all Indiana.

[Gustaf]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

Indianapolis does not = all Indiana.

Of course not, that would be impossible since, as we all know, South Carolina = Indiana and Indianapolis is not even in South Carolina.

[Smash255]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

So...the similarity between Indiana and South Carolina is that whites are Republican and blacks Democratic. Ok!

My point being that the chances of the Dem Primary vote only being 12% African American when the overall African American % in the state is 9% is quite slim, its likely to be close to 20%. 

[Smash255]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

Indianapolis does not = all Indiana.

When the hell did I ever suggest it was??

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indiana is not South Carolina.

Indiana is not quite South Carolina, however whites in Indiana are also heavily Republican  and just like in South Carolina, and states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and the rest of the country African Americans are very heavily Democratic and will make up a much larger portion of the democratic vote in the Primary than their proportion of the state as a whole.

Indianapolis does not = all Indiana.

When the hell did I ever suggest it was??

Because the sort of racial divide of which you speak doesn't really exist in Indiana outside the Indianapolis metropolitan area?