PA-SurveyUSA: Clinton regains 18-point advantage over Obama

[Speed of Sound]

I just helped make the next SurveyUSA poll a little closer! They just called for my dad, so I answered for both adults in the household (who are both staunch Obama supporters).

[Democratic Hawk]

I just helped make the next SurveyUSA poll a little closer! They just called for my dad, so I answered for both adults in the household (who are both staunch Obama supporters).

Good on you Zak

[Speed of Sound]

I just helped make the next SurveyUSA poll a little closer! They just called for my dad, so I answered for both adults in the household (who are both staunch Obama supporters).

Good on you Zak

Now watch it be 25 points next time

[Democratic Hawk]

I just helped make the next SurveyUSA poll a little closer! They just called for my dad, so I answered for both adults in the household (who are both staunch Obama supporters).

Good on you Zak

Now watch it be 25 points next time

Hope not; I'm depressed enough

[J. J.]

When taken, this poll was an ourtrider.

I would be too surprised that after the "bitter" remark, it would be closer than Zogby.

[jeron]

I wonder why they published this poll, knowing it is this far off.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

How do you know it's wrong? We won't know if it's right until after the race. Obama tends to be overpolled in these big states.

[Alcon]

How do you know it's wrong? We won't know if it's right until after the race. Obama tends to be overpolled in these big states.

"In these big states"?  That's one of the weirdest theories I've ever heard.  Why would Obama overpoll in populous states?

There is something that these states have in common, but it is not being populated.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama very rarely overpolls in the polls released just before election day. He does frequently underpoll, however, though mostly in states with very favorable demographics for him.

[Gustaf]

Obama overpolls in exit polls. This tends to create a general impression that he underperforms in elections compared to polls/expectations. Primary polling just isn't very good in most states.

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama overpolls in exit polls. This tends to create a general impression that he underperforms in elections compared to polls/expectations. Primary polling just isn't very good in most states.

Agreed that polling in primaries is difficult, but comparing polls from one day out to the actual result doesn't need to account for exit polling errors.

[agcatter]

I do remember Obama overpolling in the NH exits.  I think they had him winning by 5 when he lost by 2 or 3.  Other than that, I can't remember him overpolling in exits.  Did he overpoll in Ohio and Texas?

[Alcon]

I do remember Obama overpolling in the NH exits.  I think they had him winning by 5 when he lost by 2 or 3.  Other than that, I can't remember him overpolling in exits.  Did he overpoll in Ohio and Texas?

He overpolls in exits pretty often.  Rhode Island was the most astounding example.

But more than that, he really overpolls in exit leaks.

[agcatter]

Oh yeah, I do remember the exit leak having him running at least even in RI. 

Yeah, the leaks on Drudge super Tuesday had him slightly ahead in Massachusetts.  I do remember that because I was surprised Mass was called so early for Hillary when Drudge had such different afternoon exits.

So why does Obama fairly often overpoll in exits?  Why would that happen?

[© tweed]

Oh yeah, I do remember the exit leak having him running at least even in RI. 

Yeah, the leaks on Drudge super Tuesday had him slightly ahead in Massachusetts.  I do remember that because I was surprised Mass was called so early for Hillary when Drudge had such different afternoon exits.

So why does Obama fairly often overpoll in exits?  Why would that happen?

white guilt

[Alcon]

Another theory is that he overpolls in exit polls for much the same reason he kills in caucuses.

[Gustaf]

Obama overpolls in exit polls. This tends to create a general impression that he underperforms in elections compared to polls/expectations. Primary polling just isn't very good in most states.

Agreed that polling in primaries is difficult, but comparing polls from one day out to the actual result doesn't need to account for exit polling errors.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean though I think I agree. My point was simply that rather than being "biased" primary polling is just not very good and hence some polls are pretty off every time.

[agcatter]

Overpolls in exits for the same reason he does well in caucuses?  You mean he tends to have the activists and they are the ones who volunteer to fill out the exit questions?  Does the exit polling rely on randomly buttonholing voters as they leave the polls or do they rely on people to volunteer to step up and fill out the question forms?

Anyone know how that works?  I've always wondered.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama very rarely overpolls in the polls released just before election day. He does frequently underpoll, however, though mostly in states with very favorable demographics for him.

And PA does not have good demographics for him. He was overpolled in both Texas and Ohio. Outside of the southern states, he has been overpolled. CA, MA, NH, NJ come to mind. The demographics in those states do not favor him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama very rarely overpolls in the polls released just before election day. He does frequently underpoll, however, though mostly in states with very favorable demographics for him.

And PA does not have good demographics for him. He was overpolled in both Texas and Ohio. Outside of the southern states, he has been overpolled. CA, MA, NH, NJ come to mind. The demographics in those states do not favor him.

He did not poll overpoll in Texas and Ohio. Take a look at the last polls right before the election. They were accurate except for some Zogby weirdness in Ohio.

He did not overpoll in Massachusetts either only counting real polls and not crap uni polls, and didn't outside the MoE in NJ except for Zogby again. The only real states he overpolled in were NH and CA, in NH a completely different dynamic was at work, and in CA most likely the polls were just wrong (and possibly not even that throwing out unis and Zogby).