North Carolina in 2008

[Josh/Devilman88]

15-20 points less than whites in Connecticut and say, Washington state.  Anyway, it won't be enough.  He'll get killed in rural white counties.

Maybe, but most of the  population live in are around the major cities.

[Brittain33]

Maybe, but most of the  population live in are around the major cities.

Many of those people are solid Republicans who wouldn't vote for a Democrat for President if he were John Edwards or Bill Clinton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the white-flighters of NC have always looked on black candidates with a great deal of fondness...

[Josh/Devilman88]

Because the white-flighters of NC have always looked on black candidates with a great deal of fondness...

When are you going to get it into your head North Carolina isn't the same as it was in the 90s. Just in the past 7 years around 12% of North Carolina population increase was due to people moving from up North to NC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When are you going to get it into your head North Carolina isn't the same as it was in the 90s.

I don't think that actually. I think that the fundamentals in that state haven't changed though (and you'll find that the electoral record backs me up on that).

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So ?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Why can't this just die? NC isn't going Democrat in 2008 barring a major landslide.

[agcatter]

I'd love to see McCain win NJ as much as the Obama people would like to see Obama win NC.

In both cases, wishful thinking.  Demographics of a state are stubborn things.  In the case of NC, Gore lost it by 13 points.  Kerry with North Carolinian John Edwards as his running mate, lost it by 13 points 4 years ago.  Maybe Barack Obama will shock the world and eek out a win in NC.  My question in 2008:  based on what?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'd love to see McCain win NJ as much as the Obama people would like to see Obama win NC.

In both cases, wishful thinking.  Demographics of a state are stubborn things.  In the case of NC, Gore lost it by 13 points.  Kerry with North Carolinian John Edwards as his running mate, lost it by 13 points 4 years ago.  Maybe Barack Obama will shock the world and eek out a win in NC.  My question in 2008:  based on what?

I'd like to have the same question answered outside of registered voters numbers. Nothing else points to a NC Dem flip in 2008 barring a landslide.

[Sam Spade]

There's a difference between partisan id and party registration, especially in states like NC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I'd love to see McCain win NJ as much as the Obama people would like to see Obama win NC.

In both cases, wishful thinking.  Demographics of a state are stubborn things.  In the case of NC, Gore lost it by 13 points.  Kerry with North Carolinian John Edwards as his running mate, lost it by 13 points 4 years ago.  Maybe Barack Obama will shock the world and eek out a win in NC.  My question in 2008:  based on what?

I'd like to have the same question answered outside of registered voters numbers. Nothing else points to a NC Dem flip in 2008 barring a landslide.

The polls are showing NC getting closer.

[War on Want]

I gotta admit I have been doing research on NC, and it lookes like it is trending hardcore Left. I don't see how the Reserach Triangle would not vote for Obama by at least decent margins of 55-45.

[War on Want]

I'd love to see McCain win NJ as much as the Obama people would like to see Obama win NC.

In both cases, wishful thinking.  Demographics of a state are stubborn things.  In the case of NC, Gore lost it by 13 points.  Kerry with North Carolinian John Edwards as his running mate, lost it by 13 points 4 years ago.  Maybe Barack Obama will shock the world and eek out a win in NC.  My question in 2008:  based on what?

I'd like to have the same question answered outside of registered voters numbers. Nothing else points to a NC Dem flip in 2008 barring a landslide.

Nothing else points to NC going Republican by those margins besides polls, and 2004 Election Results. No wait polls point to NC going only barely Republican, so only the 2004 Election Results have proof for what you believe in.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I gotta admit I have been doing research on NC, and it lookes like it is trending hardcore Left. I don't see how the Reserach Triangle would not vote for Obama by at least decent margins of 55-45.

The Triangle will vote for Obama my 60-40, the Triad will vote for Obama 55-45

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I gotta admit I have been doing research on NC, and it lookes like it is trending hardcore Left. I don't see how the Reserach Triangle would not vote for Obama by at least decent margins of 55-45.

The Triangle will vote for Obama my 60-40, the Triad will vote for Obama 55-45

You mean just Guilford county? Forsyth will remain solid Republican, and Davidson county, which was 70% for Bush, won't be flipping either. Guilford could go 55-45 for Obama. The Triangle may go 60-40. Obama will do very well in Orange and Durham counties, and win Wake county slightly.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I gotta admit I have been doing research on NC, and it lookes like it is trending hardcore Left. I don't see how the Reserach Triangle would not vote for Obama by at least decent margins of 55-45.

The Triangle will vote for Obama my 60-40, the Triad will vote for Obama 55-45

You mean just Guilford county? Forsyth will remain solid Republican, and Davidson county, which was 70% for Bush, won't be flipping either. Guilford could go 55-45 for Obama. The Triangle may go 60-40. Obama will do very well in Orange and Durham counties, and win Wake county slightly.

I'm talkind about the Triad, Greensboro, High-Point and Winston-Salem. Not the Piedmont Triad.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I gotta admit I have been doing research on NC, and it lookes like it is trending hardcore Left. I don't see how the Reserach Triangle would not vote for Obama by at least decent margins of 55-45.

The Triangle will vote for Obama my 60-40, the Triad will vote for Obama 55-45

You mean just Guilford county? Forsyth will remain solid Republican, and Davidson county, which was 70% for Bush, won't be flipping either. Guilford could go 55-45 for Obama. The Triangle may go 60-40. Obama will do very well in Orange and Durham counties, and win Wake county slightly.

I'm talkind about the Triad, Greensboro, High-Point and Winston-Salem. Not the Piedmont Triad.

Forsyth won't flip. That's all I am saying. They reelected Virginia Foxx in 2006 with 57% of the vote in a horrible GOP year. If you are talking strictly in the city limits, then sure, but Im sure they have already been going Democrat previously.

[NOVA Green]

LOL again at all the posters bashing Josh's NC prediction....

[afleitch]

Indeed. Kudos to Josh for sticking to it

[Iosif]

NORTH CAROLINA WILL GO DEMOCRATIC THIS YEAR!!!! YOU ARE THE PROFIT SENT TO DELIVER US THIS MESSAGE!!! I HAVE FINALLY SEEN THE LIGHT, JOSH!

Idiot.

Should I make a thread suggesting some ridiculous state will go Republican? Most states, including southern ones, have more registered Democrats than Republicans. This is beginning to get out of hand. Of course, I will take the heat for challenging this notion.

Hes not actually sayings NC is going democratic this year like "ZOMG LOOK...ITS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!1ONE". Theres no harm in doing the math and playing around with the numbers. Im actually kinda interested in what he came up with....but that doesnt mean for sure the state is flipping in November. Honestly if I had the capacity to actually do math....id fiddle around with Virginia's numbers and such but I cant nor posess the mental function to do so.

and acting like 5 year old spamming some persons thread with your nonsense doesnt help the situation at all.

Repeatedly suggesting that NC will go Democrat or be a close state in 2008 over and over and over again isn't making the conversation on this forum any more stimulating or mature. NC may be a tossup in 2012, but not in 2008. Only josh believes that because Obama has such a wide appeal that he can carry every state that has the potential to go Democrat. Most of the undecideds in NC normally break for the GOP, and with Dole winning reelection to the Senate, it will be very, very tough for this state to flip.

Take a bow, son.