My 2008 prediction....

[Gustaf]

The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.

Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?

I do think you overestimate the level of conservatism in the South-West, Bush only got around 50-51% in AZ, CO and NV.

What state(s) would Edwards get that Kerry wouldn't, I'm just curious?

[elcorazon]

One name to watch for in 2012 is Barak OBama who is going to be elected to serve as a democrat this November in the Senate, filling Peter Fitzgerald's seat here in Illinois.  I could see him running for the top spot then if there is no democratic incumbent running.

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?

[NHPolitico]

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?

Because his re-election prospects were 50-50 at best and he wants to be president now or later and a loss in a re-election bid would end that dream.

[NHPolitico]

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.

And for 2020? Adam Putnam.

Lol...any guesses on 2040? Or 2060? Or why not 3004, wjile we're at it...

This is getting out of hand...

Well, my daughter will be president in 2052.

[NHPolitico]

OK, here are some crystal ball choices for the GOP on either end of the ticket (age in 2012):

Bill Pryor, 50
Brian Sandoval, 46
Heather Wilson, 52
Jack Kingston, 57
Jon Bruning, 43
Ken Blackwell, 64
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Matt Blunt, 42
Melissa Hart, 50
Mike Cox, 51
Mike Rogers, 49
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

I know Wilson, Kingston, Hart, and Rogers are in the U.S. House, (though I think there are two Mike Rogers's in Congress) and Pryor is an Alabama Attorney General, Blunt a Missouri Sec. of State who is running for Governor, Blackwell an Ohio Sec. of State, Sandoval a Nevada Attorney General, but who are the rest?

Yes, I meant the Mike Rogers from Michigan. Click the names to go to their pages.

Jon Bruning, 43
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Mike Cox, 51
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

I tried to pick young politicians who were good looking and in positions that would make advancement very possible.

[Reaganfan]

Katherine Harris... SHE SAID SHE WILL RUN FOR SENATE, BUT NOT THIS YEAR.

[zachman]

NHPolitico, I'm from Bedford where are you from?

[Reaganfan]

We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?

[NHPolitico]

NHPolitico, I'm from Bedford where are you from?

Upper Valley.

[zachman]

I've never heard of Upper Valley, where is that?

[NHPolitico]

We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?

What do you mean "We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations"?  Can you elaborate on that sentence? I say Huckabee beats Byrd, Carper beats Harris, Perry beats Bredesen.

[NHPolitico]

I've never heard of Upper Valley, where is that?

Dartmouth/Lake Sunapee region

[zachman]

We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?

I don't know the last set, but Byrd is too old to get the nomination. I met Tom Carper at a restaurant (Wolf Blitzer was there as well) where he was campaigning for Lieberman, and he seemed like a nice guy, but being from Delaware, and being a typical aging senator just doesn't cut it, but if he did get the nomination he'd beat Harris, unless America evolved into a mental asylum.

[© tweed]

We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?

Presidents Huckabee, Carper, and Bredesen.

[NHPolitico]

if he did get the nomination he'd beat Harris, unless America evolved into a mental asylum.

Harris winning isn't the equivalent of Sharpton or Kucinich winning.

[zachman]

She couldn't become the establishment pick though, hence no nomination for her.

[Reaganfan]

She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

[zachman]

Assuming she has some opposition she won't win NH or Iowa. I can't imagine her giving a stump speech.

[© tweed]

She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

attractive?

[Nation]

She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.



2) She's a member of congress

[© tweed]

yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

[NHPolitico]

yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

They're both pikers compared to Cindy McCain.

[© tweed]

Ick

[Saratoga2DM]

Hey all:

Kathernine Harris would never get nominated by the GOP in a national election because of her questionable,  unethical, and heinous involvement in the 2000 election.  She has been accused by civil rights groups of disenfranchising minority voters, committing election fraud, and abusing her powers as Florida Secretary of state for her own self-interests.  

While all this was happening she still retained her sympathies for George W. Bush, rather than doing her job as a neutral interpreter of Florida Laws.

This is unrelated but, how much makeup does she have to wear in order to cover her face??  

Sleep tight all.


 

[TheWildCard]

She's 43 and looks like a rat.

She doesn't look like a rat.

Anyway I believe she said something like she plans on running for senate just not this year so probably won't run for awhile