PA-DemP-ARG: Clinton regains 20-point lead against Obama

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Clinton 57%
Obama 37%

Pennsylvania
Democrats   Mar
7-8   Mar
26-27   Apr
5-6   Apr
11-13
Clinton   52%   51%   45%   57%
Obama   41%   39%   45%   37%
Someone else   1%   2%   4%   2%
Undecided   6%   8%   6%   4%
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%.

Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 52% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 62% to 31% among voters age 50 and older.

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

23% of likely Democratic primary voters say that excessive exposure to Obama's advertising is causing them to support Clinton.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Obama +5

[Angel of Death]

And a week ago they showed a dead heat. Sure.

[agcatter]

I do agree you can oversaturate on the ads.   It almost  never happens because there has seldom been a candidate with the money Obama has to dump into a state.

We got a taste of the Obama saturation in Texas (as I understand they did in Ohio).  It got ridiculous here and the sheer volume of his ads got to be nothing short of annoying.  I mean, who wants to see the same ads over and over.....

You can over do it.

[Joe Republic]

I believe I've stumbled onto ARG's top secret methodological formula:  shhh don't tell anybody

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Link to the database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080413001

And before you yell at me for entering this, even Dave has entered ARG polls.

[Democratic Hawk]

I do agree you can oversaturate on the ads.   It almost  never happens because there has seldom been a candidate with the money Obama has to dump into a state.

We got a taste of the Obama saturation in Texas (as I understand they did in Ohio).  It got ridiculous here and the sheer volume of his ads got to be nothing short of annoying.  I mean, who wants to see the same ads over and over.....

You can over do it.

I agree. I'd be sick of ads too. I know only too well how sick voters get of leaflets. Lost count of how many have been thrown back at me over the years

Obama should be campaigning in PA as hard as he can in person

Dave

[agcatter]

Yeah, for effectiveness, you can't beat a bus tour across the state with lots of free local and state media coverage.  The canned ads aren't nearly as effective regardless how slick they are.  My wife and I were seeing 6 and 7 Obama ads per evening that we stayed home and watched an evening of television.  It got that every time one came on we just looked at each other and laughed.

[they don't love you like i love you]

LOL, ARG.

[Mr. Morden]

Trendlines for PA polls:



Note ARG & PPP.

[J. J.]

Maybe a slight uptick to Clinton.

[agcatter]

JJ, what do you expect out of Allegheny County next Tuesday?  I'm not familiar with the percentage of blacks living there.  I assume it is working class white.  Who will carry the county?

[J. J.]

JJ, what do you expect out of Allegheny County next Tuesday?  I'm not familiar with the percentage of blacks living there.  I assume it is working class white.  Who will carry the county?

I think the CD is 22% black.  It's white working class and professionals.  There is also a very large Jewish population.  I expect her to carry it, but I don't know by how much.

[agcatter]

Large Jewish population?  Didn't know that.

[J. J.]

Large Jewish population?  Didn't know that.

Yes, especially Squirrel Hill.  There is a synagogue there that I believed was designed by Frank Lloyd Wright.

Slightly under half of the total Jewish population in the region lives there or in an adjoining neighborhood.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squirrel_Hill#Religion   (It also say the best deli food west of NYC.)

It's in the 14th Congressional District, which is roughly where most black voters are.