If a Democrat wins in 2008, which state(s) will still move to the right?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Idaho

[Smash255]

No Republican has a chance in hell of moving, it will continue to surge Democratic.  As far as Giulaini doing better than Bush did in VT, not a chance in hell, the most anti war state in the country is not going to move in the direction of the most pro-war candidate.

Some of the southern states could actually still trend Republican.  Keep in mind the trend is compared to the national average.  If nationally the vote swings to the Dems by 5 points, and whites in Mississippi and Alabama still vote GOP at a 85% clip, while the margin from 04 won't really  change, it technically would have trended GOP compared to the national average.

[Mr.Phips]

Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Idaho

I don't see how any of these states could move further to the right than they currently are.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Wyoming
Utah
Idaho

I don't see how any of these states could move further to the right than they currently are.

Louisiana has a Democratic Senator, Utah has a Democratic congressman, I'm pretty sure that Alabama has a Democratic state senate, and so does Mississippi.

[Хahar 🤔]

Maybe a few percentage points in NY, if Clinton doesn't get the nomination but Giuliani does.

[ottermax]

What about the Midwest? Is that out of the question? I can see Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa moving rightward even though they don't seem that way. Also, New Jersey, Florida, Tennessee, and Louisiana. There are quite a few possibilities; all of the Midwestern ideas would be slight shifts.

[War on Want]

All this stuff about Idaho trending Republican is stupid. It will probably hold or slightly trend Democrat in 2008. Did you guys see the 2004 map where all of Northern Idaho and major cities in the south trended Democrat?

[Gabu]

For those thinking that Vermont might trend towards the Republicans in 2008, I might remind you that Vermont was the state where the state legislature voted to recommend impeachment of Bush and Cheney.

[Alcon]

I was kind of an idiot in 2004.

I'll wait to see the candidates.  Currently, I'd say Colorado is the most likely possibiltiy.  Alaska probably won't exactly heart Clinton either.

[DownWithTheLeft]

For those thinking that Vermont might trend towards the Republicans in 2008, I might remind you that Vermont was the state where the state legislature voted to recommend impeachment of Bush and Cheney.

They have a large populous of conservative voters and I don't think that the Burlington area would love a Clinton-esque candidate and not show up.  I see a Clinton/Giuliani turning out like this:

Clinton 52%
Giuliani 44%
Others 4%

[they don't love you like i love you]

What about the Midwest? Is that out of the question? I can see Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa moving rightward even though they don't seem that way.

Based on what though? There's no reason for any Republican movement here.

[Frodo]

The ones in the Deep South (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

For those thinking that Vermont might trend towards the Republicans in 2008, I might remind you that Vermont was the state where the state legislature voted to recommend impeachment of Bush and Cheney.

They have a large populous of conservative voters and I don't think that the Burlington area would love a Clinton-esque candidate and not show up.  I see a Clinton/Giuliani turning out like this:

Clinton 52%
Giuliani 44%
Others 4%

Yeah, ok I grant you that there is a conservative vote in VT, but to think that most anti-War anti-Bush state in the country would break 40% support to the candidate that aligns himself to the Bush foreign policy?

Come on.

As I wrote elsewhere, Clinton's disapproval numbers don't matter if they dislike her opponent more.

[Tender Branson]

Obama (50%) vs. McCain (49%):

I think McCain could do slightly better in Arizona than Bush did against Kerry.

Louisiana will certainly be close to 60% or even more for McCain.

In Arkansas McCain could get 56%.

Kentucky and West Virginia are also states in which McCain could do better than Bush.

Most likely New York and Massachusetts as well ...

No clue about OH, MI and PA.

[Kevinstat]

I'd put Maine as a possibility.  I've been phone banking for the Maine Democrats, calling Democrats who attended their municipal caucuses (so among the surest Democratic votes, you would think) in Kennebec County (one of Maine's more Democratic counties although it seems to be trending Republican relative to the state), polling the U.S. Senate race and State Senate and State House races where there are no contested primaries, plus asking those called what their most important issue is of Iraq, Health Care or Jobs and the Economy and giving a pro-Allen spiel on that issue if they were not strongly supporting him.  While I haven't experienced it so much, some people called have expressed their opinions on the Presidential race even though they haven't been polled on that race (I have had to explain a few times why we weren't polling that race, which is because the Democratic nomination isn't decided, although I've generally omitted from saying that we're polling the U.S. Senate race as Tom Allen v. Susan Collins even though Allen has a primary opponent as I know the volunteer coordinator wouldn't want me to say that).  One voter I called was upset that Allen endorsed Obama before the nomination was decided, even though Maine went for Obama back in February and it wasn't until after Indiana and North Carolina that Allen endorsed Obama.  But the real gem was one voter another volunteer called who says he wasn't voting for Obama because his name sounded like Osama (I'm not making this up, although sadly it probably won't surprise many of you right now, but remember these are supposed to be the most ardently Democratic of voters).  I think that volunteer was calling Litchfield which does seem like that kind of town.  Back when I lived in West Gardiner and was in Boy Scouts West Gardiner didn't have a Boy Scout Troup I went to one in Litchfield where I found out later that the assistant scoutmaster smoked pot or at least had at the time (so did some of the scouts; I don't know of them doing so with the scoutmaster but it wouldn't surprise me if you count outside scouting activities as that assistant scoutmaster had a street-wise son on the troup).

Anyway, in spite of some polls I've heard of which put Obama way ahead in Maine I could see him carrying the state by less than the 9.00% Kerry won by in 2004 even if he won the electoral vote (and/or the national popular vote, although I imaging "wins" here meant get elected President which of course would be determined by a candidate's electoral vote).  The same for Hillary if she somehow got the nomination (it seems unlikely at this point; I've supported Obama since Iowa pretty much), perhaps even more so.  One voter my mom called this past Thursday said, when polled on the Senate race, "I ain't votin' for no woman."  Maine definitely has its rednecks.

[HardRCafé]

He must be very upset about Snowe and Collins (and perhaps Pingree).

[Kevinstat]

Yeah, he could be a useful voter for my side in the Senate race, although if Tom Allen won by one vote or tied (not likely to be anywhere in that range I admit) I'd feel bad about that person's vote having been what made the difference.  Of course I'm sure there are others like him in the state, although Allen's liberal and Oxford (or wherever he was a Rhodes Scholar in England) enough that most such voters might see him as a pretty boy and not vote for him either.  Such voters could make a difference in a very close ME-01 Democratic primary though, although Pingree's seeming chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Portland State Senator Ethan Stimling, is definitely a pretty boy; Iraq War Veteran Adam Cote, who will probably come in third although I could see him coming in fifth of the six candidates, would probably be the male chauvanist's #1 choice in that primary, not that he'd seek out such support.  The general election likely won't be that close unless pro-choice recently returned Iraq War Veteran Charlie Summers (whose wife had run his campaign until he got back from his deployment this month; his National Guard unit got called up after he had formed an exploratory committee I think) is the Republican nominee and someone other than Pingree or Cote and probably Strimling (like super-dry former State Senate President and current York County D.A. Mark Lawrence who was very concillatory (sp?) as Senate President but has latched onto impeachment, tying in his legal background and saying "noone is above the law," as the ticket to win the primary) is the Democratic nominee.  Even then the Democrat would have a clear edge.