PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton Leads PA by 3%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Zogby on 2008-04-19

Summary:

Clinton:	46%
Obama:	43%
Other:	3%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Pennsylvania

 4-18/19

 4-17/18

 4-16/17

 4-15/16

 

Clinton

 46%

 47%

 47%

 45%

 

Obama

 43%

 42%

 43%

 44%

 

Someone else

 3%

 3%

 2%

 3%

 

Not sure

 8%

 8%

 8%

 9%

[J. J.]

I'm much more impressed by the Rasmussen poll that showed a Clinton drop.

[Tender Branson]

Analysis from Zogby:

"Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton's 44%. We quadruple-checked our Saturday sample and it is solid. Perhaps the buzz from both his San Francisco statements and the ABC debate has subsided.

He picked up a few more points in Philadelphia and the east, where he has been leading, in the central state area, and up-ticked a bit with men. Clinton seems to have added a few points in the Pittsburgh region. But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama.

They compose a pretty big chunk of Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain in the general election. If this small group of white/Catholic undecideds do not vote, Obama can win Pennsylvania if he is able to get out his base of young voters, African American voters, and Very Liberal voters.

If those white/Catholics do vote, then they will probably vote for Clinton and she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations. It looked like she was moving some of these voters after the debate, but today is a different story."

...

She leads among Catholics, 58% to 26%, reflecting a small gain for Obama. But Clinton gained among Protestants yesterday and now trails Obama by 14 points. The two religious demographic groups are roughly the same size in Pennsylvania.

...

Should she really win by just 5% (which I do not believe), this thing is over.

[Eraserhead]

Doesn't Obama usually have good weekends? Anyway, if Obama only loses by a few points I'll be happy.

I'm still sticking with an 8 or 9 point Clinton win though. I think undecideds will break close to 2:1 for her.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Doesn't Obama usually have good weekends? Anyway, if Obama only loses by a few points I'll be happy.

I'm still sticking with an 8 or 9 point Clinton win though. I think undecideds will break close to 2:1 for her.

Do you really think the undecideds are going to break like that?  I think the end is in sight and that's going to drive the undecideds by a similar margin but in the opposite direction. 

If at this point you're not for Obama, and you're not for Clinton... you're probably sick of the whole damn thing and want to get it over with. 

[Eraserhead]

Doesn't Obama usually have good weekends? Anyway, if Obama only loses by a few points I'll be happy.

I'm still sticking with an 8 or 9 point Clinton win though. I think undecideds will break close to 2:1 for her.

Do you really think the undecideds are going to break like that?  I think the end is in sight and that's going to drive the undecideds by a similar margin but in the opposite direction. 

If at this point you're not for Obama, and you're not for Clinton... you're probably sick of the whole damn thing and want to get it over with. 

In a state like PA? Yeah, I do. I'd love to be wrong on this one though.