PA PrimD: Suffolk University: Clinton leads Obama by 10

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Suffolk University on 2008-04-20

Summary:

Clinton:	52%
Obama:	42%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uni poll. Burn.

[Sam Spade]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

[Alcon]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

The late-breakers are almost all Catholic whites, as a few other polls have implied, and they will go heavily for Clinton.  If there is any Clinton-ward mo' in the last few days, she might win solidly.

[Sam Spade]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

The late-breakers are almost all Catholic whites, as a few other polls have implied, and they will go heavily for Clinton.  If there is any Clinton-ward mo' in the last few days, she might win solidly.

I don't really know what a "late-breaker" is in terms of the Pennsylvania primary - I do know what a "liar" or a "flirter" is, however...  We'll see.

[Alcon]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

The late-breakers are almost all Catholic whites, as a few other polls have implied, and they will go heavily for Clinton.  If there is any Clinton-ward mo' in the last few days, she might win solidly.

I don't really know what a "late-breaker" is in terms of the Pennsylvania primary - I do know what a "liar" or a "flirter" is, however...  We'll see.

Oh, yes.  That's another good point.  It looks like Clinton is gaining a bit late game, or is at least up more than we thought.  And I imagine a lot of those "late-breaking undecideds" (pissed-off working-class Catholics) are still claiming to be undecided.

[Padfoot]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

The late-breakers are almost all Catholic whites, as a few other polls have implied, and they will go heavily for Clinton.  If there is any Clinton-ward mo' in the last few days, she might win solidly.

Are their numbers solid enough to back up this implication?  I'm not saying its wrong, I just don't usually look very deep into the polls to see the religious, racial, age, sex, ect. breakdown.  Also, is there a possibility that these supposed "undecideds" might not vote at all? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The run of polls with Obama in the low 40s' continues.

One thing of interest - generally when the undecideds are high - Clinton is low.

I thinking more and more Clinton wins 55-56%

[Eraserhead]

It'll be 9 points! Stop your debating, Eraserhead has spoken.

[Gustaf]

Suckolk University should not be taken too seriously.

[Sam Spade]

I don't really care about the quality of the poll, fwiw, if it has any.

The point I will continue to make is this:  There have always been in my mind two results:
1) The "race is over" result, where Clinton wins by 6-8 points, where the working-class Catholics in the Philly area decide that the race is over and split.
2) The "race continues as it did before" result, where Clinton wins by 12%-15%, and the working-class Catholics in Philly do their thing.

Now, with SUSA having her lead down to 6 points, my tendency would be leaning towards the former result, rather than the latter, whereas last night, I would be leaning more towards the latter, rather than the former.

The key point is the SE PA subsample - before SUSA had that as tied.  Now they match the other polls which show Obama +15 there.  That's your gap.

Of course, this doesn't mean we won't split the difference and see an 8%-12% margin.  Quite possible, actually.  And SUSA could be wrong here, who knows...