NC PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads Clinton by 9

[Josh/Devilman88]

The media has already declared NC an Obama state and put all the marbles on Indiana for Hillary. She has to win there. Winning NC, while being a bigger prize, wouldn't satisfy what the media has deemed she win. I do hope she deploys Bill here. I'd love to go see him speak.

He was at Elon today (Frezzy goes there).  If she pulls NC with 10% or less, you might as well say I will be voting for McCain in the fall.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The media has already declared NC an Obama state and put all the marbles on Indiana for Hillary. She has to win there. Winning NC, while being a bigger prize, wouldn't satisfy what the media has deemed she win. I do hope she deploys Bill here. I'd love to go see him speak.

He was at Elon today (Frezzy goes there).  If she pulls NC with 10% or less, you might as well say I will be voting for McCain in the fall.

I still think she needs to win NC in order for her to win the nomination. Getting it under 10% will make Obama look bad yet again, especially if she wins Indiana on top of that, but he'll still get the nomination. It's just how badly will he be damaged come convention time. She might ruin him to where he has no chance.

[Gustaf]

How does North Carolina compare to other Southern states in terms of % black population?

[Verily]

How does North Carolina compare to other Southern states in terms of % black population?

22% black. More than Virginia, less than Obama's other Southern states. But the racial divide is considerably less stark in North Carolina than in the Deep South, more similar to Virginia. Racist voting patterns are still somewhat stronger in NC than in VA, however, as the "Northernized" (for lack of a better term) urban and suburban white population is smaller.

Far western North Carolina will be brutal for Obama, although not quite as bad as southwestern Virginia; more like eastern Tennessee. Obama will win white voters in some parts of the center of the state, where most of the population (and especially most of the Democrats) live.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

There is talk again that Elizabeth Edwards is close to appearing with at a rally, and possibly endorsing Hillary Clinton before the NC primary. Who knows what John Edwards will do.

[Josh/Devilman88]

There is talk again that Elizabeth Edwards is close to appearing with at a rally, and possibly endorsing Hillary Clinton before the NC primary. Who knows what John Edwards will do.

It won't change anything.

[Gustaf]

How does North Carolina compare to other Southern states in terms of % black population?

22% black. More than Virginia, less than Obama's other Southern states. But the racial divide is considerably less stark in North Carolina than in the Deep South, more similar to Virginia. Racist voting patterns are still somewhat stronger in NC than in VA, however, as the "Northernized" (for lack of a better term) urban and suburban white population is smaller.

Far western North Carolina will be brutal for Obama, although not quite as bad as southwestern Virginia; more like eastern Tennessee. Obama will win white voters in some parts of the center of the state, where most of the population (and especially most of the Democrats) live.

Your post, mostly, sums up what I already knew. I wanted exact percentages to play around with. But I should find them myself, I guess.

[Sam Spade]

It's actually 21.4%, 2% more than VA.  Whichever, the result still screams itself to me.

[elcorazon]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

[Josh/Devilman88]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

liberal obama base will be in the triangle, Greensboro, and the City of Charlotte.

[J. J.]

What are the rates of gun ownership at church attendance?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

liberal obama base will be in the triangle, Greensboro, and the City of Charlotte.

Dunno about Charlotte. Don't most people say it leans Clinton? The Triangle is ideal for him. Lots of transplants, liberals academia, white guilt, and college students.

Charlotte has transplants too, but I bet Clinton does better there. Obama will do well in the eastern NC black counties as well.

[Gustaf]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

Now this, and what Sam said, is the kind of stuff I like. Not as bad demographically for Clinton as I thought then. Still, seems too bad to permit a win.

Next question: what percentage there are registered Democrats? Or, in other words, how many Jessecrats are still around to turn out and vote against the black man? I'm guessing that is what decides North Carolina, since Clinton is going to need a white turnout and an incredible margin among those whites in order to come close. Which is why that seems unlikely.

[Josh/Devilman88]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

liberal obama base will be in the triangle, Greensboro, and the City of Charlotte.

Dunno about Charlotte. Don't most people say it leans Clinton? The Triangle is ideal for him. Lots of transplants, liberals academia, white guilt, and college students.

Charlotte has transplants too, but I bet Clinton does better there. Obama will do well in the eastern NC black counties as well.

The city of Charlotte will go to Obama by 10% but once you get out of the city then it turns into Clintonland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia was an open primary so historical Republicanism didn't matter. North Carolina is semi-open with independents being allowed to vote and as Al has pointed out, the industrial areas of North Carolina are historically Republican, so that's another advantage for Obama.

[Gustaf]

Virginia was an open primary so historical Republicanism didn't matter. North Carolina is semi-open with independents being allowed to vote and as Al has pointed out, the industrial areas of North Carolina are historically Republican, so that's another advantage for Obama.

I'm not entirely sure whetehr the first part is directed at me, but perhaps I should clarify that when talking about percentage of Democrats I'm not really after a comparison with Virginia, at least not primarily. I'm aware that Virginia was open and that North Carolina is only semi-open. But part of my point is that I THINK NC is one of those places where you have people who are registered Democrats but vote Republican (Oklahoma is probably the best example of this). The more there are of those, the better for Clinton. So I'm trying to get a gauge of that. I'm pretty sure there are far from enough, of course.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well in 2004 I think bush got 15 or 16% of the Democratic vote.

[Alcon]

In 2004, Bush got 16% of the Democratic vote in North Carolina.  That's virtually identical to Pennsylvania, and much less than the overall winner on that measure, Oklahoma (32%).

BRTD does have a point.  A lot of Democrats in 2004 lied and said they were Republicans while voting for Bush.  Party registration is different.  Compared to other Deep South states, North Carolina has fewer of those.  The type of voters who shifted toward the GOP in places like Oklahoma were already often traditional Republicans in North Carolina.  There was no party identification conversion to make.  That's not to say that NC doesn't have its DINO Dixiecrats, but I get the impression that they are less institutionalized.

There are still plenty, though, and they will go Clinton at impressive clips.  It won't make much more of a difference than in other states with these "DINOs" thougsh.

[Gustaf]

Well, I looked at the VA exit poll numbers and had some unscientific fun with them. I threw out the Republicans and "Others", did not adjust the black percentage (not that big a difference) made white independents a tie and bumped up Clinton's percentage of the white Democrat vote a bit. Still got Obama winning by 16%...if she wins white Democrats and white Independents by the same margins as in Pennsylvania it gets down to 12%. So it probably isn't winnable for her. I guess the question is whether she can avoid getting embarrased...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia was an open primary so historical Republicanism didn't matter. North Carolina is semi-open with independents being allowed to vote and as Al has pointed out, the industrial areas of North Carolina are historically Republican, so that's another advantage for Obama.

I'm not entirely sure whetehr the first part is directed at me, but perhaps I should clarify that when talking about percentage of Democrats I'm not really after a comparison with Virginia, at least not primarily. I'm aware that Virginia was open and that North Carolina is only semi-open. But part of my point is that I THINK NC is one of those places where you have people who are registered Democrats but vote Republican (Oklahoma is probably the best example of this). The more there are of those, the better for Clinton. So I'm trying to get a gauge of that. I'm pretty sure there are far from enough, of course.

I was talking to elcorazon with that first part.

The biggest problem for Hillary is that all of the "DINOs" are in districts that also have lots of blacks. The whitest parts of the state is the historically Republican eastern part and the uber-GOP suburban districts. The only district with lots of conservative Democrats and not many blacks is NC-3 (due to racial gerrymandering, NC-1 took in all the blacks) and it only has 4 delegates, so all Obama needs to do there is hold Hillary below 62.5%, and with blacks probably making up still around a quarter of Democratic primary voters that shouldn't be too much of a problem for him.

And North Carolina is also a southern state where like Virginia, there actually are educated and affluent whites that vote Democratic. Take Union County, the base of NC-9 for instance. It's 70% Republican, but the other 30% is favorable to Obama. And thus Hillary probably won't be winning NC-9.