NC PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads Clinton by 9

[Alcon]

Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

[Alcon]

Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?

Um... he doesn't?

Were you joking? Seriously.

I thought we already established Obama overpolling in exit polls. People are simply more eager to tell someone they voted for Obama rather than Clinton.

The early exit polls, yeah, but those are useless and unweighted. The adjusted exit polls aren't significantly off.

In all fairness, they adjust it to whatever result they're seeing.

But that Obama overpolls in exit polls has nothing to with his performance in normal polls, which in the South tends to be under-performance.

Pollsters haven't been very good with handling southern blacks this year, and SUSA hasn't been one of the holier pollsters about that.

[Alcon]

Is there really any other way to do it though? The nature of exit polling makes it kind of difficult to weigh the different polling sites you poll.

I wish I knew more about exit poll polling, but the way it changes makes me think they just do a hard "dumb" weight.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Alcon]

I think that, before we read too much into this, I need to remind everyone of SUSA's (and everyone else's) stellar performance in Alabama.  The Deep South seems to be a big thorn in the pollsters' sides this year, and the peripheral South part that has blacks isn't great either.  We'll see.

[Alcon]

In 2004, Bush got 16% of the Democratic vote in North Carolina.  That's virtually identical to Pennsylvania, and much less than the overall winner on that measure, Oklahoma (32%).

BRTD does have a point.  A lot of Democrats in 2004 lied and said they were Republicans while voting for Bush.  Party registration is different.  Compared to other Deep South states, North Carolina has fewer of those.  The type of voters who shifted toward the GOP in places like Oklahoma were already often traditional Republicans in North Carolina.  There was no party identification conversion to make.  That's not to say that NC doesn't have its DINO Dixiecrats, but I get the impression that they are less institutionalized.

There are still plenty, though, and they will go Clinton at impressive clips.  It won't make much more of a difference than in other states with these "DINOs" thougsh.