NC PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads Clinton by 9

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?

Um... he doesn't?

Were you joking? Seriously.

I thought we already established Obama overpolling in exit polls. People are simply more eager to tell someone they voted for Obama rather than Clinton.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

People who voted forgot who they voted for? I'm lost.

I'm not really sure, either. 15% undecided on who already voted?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

The Triad could be a swing area if Clinton get out and talk to people around here.

Well I know Winston Salem's district is a strong Republican one, so the Democrats in it will likely be for Clinton you would think. I don't know about Greensboro. If she does come and campaign here, it's possible the Triad could swing to her. She's good as getting undecideds, and NC seems to have a lot of them in all the polls out of the state.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The media has already declared NC an Obama state and put all the marbles on Indiana for Hillary. She has to win there. Winning NC, while being a bigger prize, wouldn't satisfy what the media has deemed she win. I do hope she deploys Bill here. I'd love to go see him speak.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The media has already declared NC an Obama state and put all the marbles on Indiana for Hillary. She has to win there. Winning NC, while being a bigger prize, wouldn't satisfy what the media has deemed she win. I do hope she deploys Bill here. I'd love to go see him speak.

He was at Elon today (Frezzy goes there).  If she pulls NC with 10% or less, you might as well say I will be voting for McCain in the fall.

I still think she needs to win NC in order for her to win the nomination. Getting it under 10% will make Obama look bad yet again, especially if she wins Indiana on top of that, but he'll still get the nomination. It's just how badly will he be damaged come convention time. She might ruin him to where he has no chance.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

There is talk again that Elizabeth Edwards is close to appearing with at a rally, and possibly endorsing Hillary Clinton before the NC primary. Who knows what John Edwards will do.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

liberal obama base will be in the triangle, Greensboro, and the City of Charlotte.

Dunno about Charlotte. Don't most people say it leans Clinton? The Triangle is ideal for him. Lots of transplants, liberals academia, white guilt, and college students.

Charlotte has transplants too, but I bet Clinton does better there. Obama will do well in the eastern NC black counties as well.