NC PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads Clinton by 9

[Josh/Devilman88]

People who voted forgot who they voted for? I'm lost.

[Josh/Devilman88]

It will be fun to see how it plays out. If Obama can keep the triad, triangle for him by good margins and win the Charlotte area he will pull off a good win, but I think Clinton can cut into some of his support if she works for it.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

The Triad could be a swing area if Clinton get out and talk to people around here.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

The Triad could be a swing area if Clinton get out and talk to people around here.

Well I know Winston Salem's district is a strong Republican one, so the Democrats in it will likely be for Clinton you would think. I don't know about Greensboro. If she does come and campaign here, it's possible the Triad could swing to her. She's good as getting undecideds, and NC seems to have a lot of them in all the polls out of the state.

Yea, shen has sent Bill twice to the Triad and she only came once. If she want to win NC she has to come and talk to us. Also I can she her cutting into the Obama in the SE part of the state around the coast. She has her work cut out for her. Do I think she can do it, no she will spend alot of time in IN trying to hold Obama off there.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The media has already declared NC an Obama state and put all the marbles on Indiana for Hillary. She has to win there. Winning NC, while being a bigger prize, wouldn't satisfy what the media has deemed she win. I do hope she deploys Bill here. I'd love to go see him speak.

He was at Elon today (Frezzy goes there).  If she pulls NC with 10% or less, you might as well say I will be voting for McCain in the fall.

[Josh/Devilman88]

There is talk again that Elizabeth Edwards is close to appearing with at a rally, and possibly endorsing Hillary Clinton before the NC primary. Who knows what John Edwards will do.

It won't change anything.

[Josh/Devilman88]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

liberal obama base will be in the triangle, Greensboro, and the City of Charlotte.

[Josh/Devilman88]

in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:

1.  while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2.  VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3.  timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.

as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it.  I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.

liberal obama base will be in the triangle, Greensboro, and the City of Charlotte.

Dunno about Charlotte. Don't most people say it leans Clinton? The Triangle is ideal for him. Lots of transplants, liberals academia, white guilt, and college students.

Charlotte has transplants too, but I bet Clinton does better there. Obama will do well in the eastern NC black counties as well.

The city of Charlotte will go to Obama by 10% but once you get out of the city then it turns into Clintonland.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well in 2004 I think bush got 15 or 16% of the Democratic vote.