Bush leads Kerry in Rasmussen national tracking poll.

[Light Touch]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Looks like Kerry's support continues to erode, while Bush gains only fractionally.

Thoughts?

[MODU]

Hard to say since both candidates have been hovering around the same mark now for months.  It will be interesting to see the post-convention figures.  Still haven't decided if there is going to be much of a bounce, though Bush plans to actually discuss in details his plans for his second administration, something Kerry never did during his.  If the detailed plans are to the likings of the voters, he might gain and maintain a few points on Kerry going into the debates.

[English]

Within the margin of error.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rasmussen=Junk

[Reds4]

Agree with Al. No use reading too much into Rasmussen.

[Giant Saguaro]

Rasmussen jumps around consistently withing the MOE. Since Kerry became the nominee, it's been one, two points most of the time. However, this report does contain some fairly encouraging news on who is trusted more, has a better vision, etc. His over all approval also holds steady in the low fifties, 52. That's not bad for sure, but if these polls (not just this one) begin registering an approval in the mid fifties (about where Clinton and Reagan were) Bush could be in a better position to just ride this thing out because head-to-head numbers almost always follow a spike in approval rating or one in the mid fifties and higher.

[The Vorlon]

The Bot-Poll is not my favorite poll.

If you look at any number in the Bot-Poll look at the rolling 7 day average which actually has been pretty decent spotting real trends in this race.  Rasmussen does a hard weight to party ID, so it smooths out the "bounces" even more than most as well.

I don't trust the absolute number Rasmussen generates, but I semi-trust the trend.

Rasmussen actually buys his samples (lists of numbers to call) from a very Reputable firm (Survey Sample Inc - same firm SUSA and Gallup, among others, use) - And his Bots call in exactly the same voice, and ask the questions exactly the same way each time.

His poll went from Dead even to Kerry +4 in the aftermath of the Dem Convention, now it has gone back down.

I think Kerry had a 3 or 4% convention bounce, I think it has gone away.

In a gridlocked race, this tiny bounce and it;'s short duration are hardly a shock.

I expect the Bush bounce might not be much either.

I am too cheap to fork over the cash to actually get the Bot's highend numbers, but based on the free data he gives out I can "aproximately" work out his 1 day samples and allso thus his rolling 7 day averages.

This is what I "think" the 7 day averages look like.



BTW, If anybody who has access could look at these numbers and tell me if I am "in the ballpark" regarding the numbers I would appreciate it.  I had to make a number of assumptions that I an fairly sure are right, but can't really know for sure.

Rasmussen reweights his sample everyday, so I have to make an estimate of his party IDs based on his congressional generic ballot, so these numbers have a good deal of uncertainty in them.

Thanks

[Democratic Hawk]

Let's just say that things are pretty tight at the moment between Bush and Kerry.

Looks like that Nader's gonna be a nuisance in a few states - and the fewer the better

Dave

[WalterMitty]

didnt rasmussen start espn?

[The Vorlon]

didnt rasmussen start espn?

Yes