NC PrimD: Zogby: Obama's lead down to single-digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Zogby on 2008-05-02

Summary:

Obama:	46%
Clinton:	37%
Other:	8%
Undecided:	9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

That seems like a lot of movement for one day.

[Umengus]

it's zogby. cfr Pennsylvania

[True Democrat]

8% for other?

I think not.

[J. J.]

It's Zogby.

All the polls, except ARG seem to be showing a tightening race.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think only the most delusional don't see that Clinton has closed the gap... it just so happens the gap was pretty big to begin with. I don't think anyone actually thinks she'll win NC.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think only the most delusional Obama supporters don't see that Clinton has closed the gap... it just so happens the gap was pretty big to begin with. I don't think anyone actually thinks she'll win NC.

Fixed it for you.

[J. J.]

I think only the most delusional don't see that Clinton has closed the gap... it just so happens the gap was pretty big to begin with. I don't think anyone actually thinks she'll win NC.

Is anyone actually predicting that Clinton will win NC.

I think she has a fair shot at getting more elected delegates on Tuesday, or ending the period (from PA to  Tuesday)with a net gain, but that's about it.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Is anyone actually predicting that Clinton will win NC.

Someone people (like Duke mostly) were getting really giddy over that piece of crap Hillary +2 poll.

[Erc]

I think only the most delusional don't see that Clinton has closed the gap... it just so happens the gap was pretty big to begin with. I don't think anyone actually thinks she'll win NC.

Is anyone actually predicting that Clinton will win NC.

I think she has a fair shot at getting more elected delegates on Tuesday, or ending the period (from PA to  Tuesday)with a net gain, but that's about it.

Not really...most IN CDs have an even number of delegates, so Hillary isn't likely to gain much from there.  PA to Tuesday...sure.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Only one Indiana district has an odd number of delegates, 5. Hillary is probably favored there.

But then there's 3 4-delegate ones. All will almost certainly split.

The rest are 6-delegate. Obama is favored to win two, one by likely enough to make it 4-2 if not both (Obama must be doing way better than in NW Indiana than people here claim he should if he's polling at some of the numbers he is.) The last Hillary +7 SUSA poll's regional breakdowns (typical caveats with subsamples) has Obama actually up by 1 in northern Indiana. Even if this is mostly because of Lake county and IN-1, it probably means Hillary isn't winning more than a split in IN-2. Hillary has enough to get 4-2 in southern Indiana, so it depends on how accurate that is and how much of IN-8 and IN-9 are in "southern Indiana". But if she gets 4-2 in both, that equals a net gain of +3 from districts.

Meanwhile even a 10 point victory gives her only 14 out of 25 at large delegates. That equals +6 overall. Some NC districts are going to have to have huge surprises to not cancel out that.