Bush +1 in Pennsylvania among likely voters

[lonestar]

Thats the results of an IssuesPA/ Pew Poll.

Among likely voters:
Bush-45%
Kerry-44%

Registered voters:
Kerry- 45%
Bush- 43%

This link has a good breakdown of results for party, region, gender, age, etc.  Also there are results from the Senate poll (Specter up 20 among likely voters).

http://www.issuespa.net/articles/10061/

[The Vorlon]

Thats the results of an IssuesPA/ Pew Poll.

Among likely voters:
Bush-45%
Kerry-44%

Registered voters:
Kerry- 45%
Bush- 43%

This link has a good breakdown of results for party, region, gender, age, etc.  Also there are results from the Senate poll (Specter up 20 among likely voters).

http://www.issuespa.net/articles/10061/

Here is the .pdf of the actual report

http://www.issuespa.net/resources/pdf/bush%20kerry%20trial%20heat%20table.pdf

[lonestar]

Thats the results of an IssuesPA/ Pew Poll.

Among likely voters:
Bush-45%
Kerry-44%

Registered voters:
Kerry- 45%
Bush- 43%

This link has a good breakdown of results for party, region, gender, age, etc.  Also there are results from the Senate poll (Specter up 20 among likely voters).

http://www.issuespa.net/articles/10061/

Here is the .pdf of the actual report

http://www.issuespa.net/resources/pdf/bush%20kerry%20trial%20heat%20table.pdf

No comments on this poll, Vorlon?

I don't know about IssuesPA, but Pew is at least somewhat respectable is it not?

[The Vorlon]

No comments on this poll, Vorlon?

Read poll first.. think... then post....

This PEW sample is off in a few ways, but many of the flaws in the sample cut in different directions.

The sample is a few % to GOP heavy (inflates the Bush number) but also has too many women (helps the Kerry Numbers)

I am going to reweight this thing and see what it looks like when I get it all sorted out...

Read poll first.. think... then post....

[lonestar]

No comments on this poll, Vorlon?

Read poll first.. think... then post....

This PEW sample is off in a few ways, but many of the flaws in the sample cut in different directions.

The sample is a few % to GOP heavy (inflates the Bush number) but also has too many women (helps the Kerry Numbers)

I am going to reweight this thing and see what it looks like when I get it all sorted out...

Read poll first.. think... then post....

[AuH2O]

I thought Kerry had PA locked up

[Giant Saguaro]

Whoa - well I thought Kerry had PA locked up too. Could be just this poll, but the others have shown it tightening a little. Emphasis on "a little," however.

[AuH2O]

I was kidding, Kerry has been overrated there all along. It's tight.

[Blue Rectangle]

I thought Kerry had PA locked up

I was kidding, Kerry has been overrated there all along. It's tight.

Kerry announced Edwards in PA, spent much time in July there, and hit the state hard right after the DNC.  It seems he has focused elsewhere over the past 3 weeks.  That explains the strong lead until recently.  Without focused effort by Kerry, PA slips quite easily into the tossup column.

It has been obvious for some time: whoever wins 2/3 of PA, OH and FL will win the race.  This poll seems to shows that Kerry can't attack OH and FL without endangering his hold on PA.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

PA is pretty much locked up.  This contrdicts every other polls we've seen.  What?  We see 10+ polls with Kerry having good leads and some no-name comes out with a close one and its up for grabs again?  I don't buy that.  

[The Vorlon]

PA is pretty much locked up.  This contrdicts every other polls we've seen.  What?  We see 10+ polls with Kerry having good leads and some no-name comes out with a close one and its up for grabs again?  I don't buy that.  

Ahhh...

PEW is not a no-name.

Despite a minor "pull to the left" it is one of the most respected polling outfits there is.

That doesn't make their poll right, but they are certainly not a "no name"

[MODU]

PA is pretty much locked up.  This contrdicts every other polls we've seen.  What?  We see 10+ polls with Kerry having good leads and some no-name comes out with a close one and its up for grabs again?  I don't buy that.  

hahaha . . . you made me spit out my drink.  

Don't worry little man, I'm sure Kerry will take PA.  We'll just have to track the state for the next to months to see if there is actually a swing back to Bush before election day.

[??????????]

Except for WVA the Vorlons map is straight up.

[barefootguy]

Likely voter polls don't mean anything unless the dempcrat is in the lead, which means they are actually further ahead than the poll would indicate.  This is because college students are not likely voters and are therefore not polled.  Same goes for blacks.

[MODU]

Likely voter polls don't mean anything unless the dempcrat is in the lead, which means they are actually further ahead than the poll would indicate.  This is because college students are not likely voters and are therefore not polled.  Same goes for blacks.

Welcome to the forum.  I hope you will learn much from our discussions on polls, and maybe it will help change your perception.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PEW's choice of regions is a bit annoying... I'd prefer Philly to be seperated from it's suburbs (otherwise SE PA is kinda meaningless...) and as a general warning about all PA polls, Butler county tends to distort *all* numbers for SW PA.
BTW, I like the way Quinnipiac seperates Philly and Allegheny counties from their "collar counties".

Oh and this is nowt to do wi' swiftboats as PEW's last poll showed a dead heat amoung registered voters, while this has a slight Kerry lead.

I'm keeping PA as D-M BTW

[Giant Saguaro]

I have a feeling this poll is inflated a bit for Bush. Kerry's probably up by about Gore's margin of victory if I had to guess; it stays as likely Kerry till more polls show a shift or show it tied.