Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

Nice Buncombe delivered for Obama.

Josh is vindicated, I guess.

Yep, 53 - 45

[J. J.]

Now at 36%, Obama leading by 20.  It will possibly be closer than expected.

...Didn't you predict Obama +4?

The expectation was by the exit polls.

I think it was 4-7, it's now 43 % and he's at 18.  I'm guessing the rural votes are out.  It's Obama's win, but it keeps on closing.

[Saxwsylvania]

Obama about 12% ahead

[Person Man]

Obama about 12% ahead

He will probably need to win by 7 or 8 points in NC to erase the lead from PA.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama about 12% ahead

57-41 = 16.

16 != 12.

What?

[Tender Branson]

Obama about 12% ahead

Obama is leading by wide margins in the 10 biggest NC counties, which are just slightly in.

I think Obama will win with 58% of the vote in the end.

[Person Man]

That's intellgent mathematics for ya, from the makers of Intelligent DesignTM

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama ahead in Mecklenburg 70-30 with 17% in

[J. J.]

Obama 14 at 55%.

[J. J.]

Obama 14 at 58%.

[J. J.]

Zogby had it right!  14 points!

[Angel of Death]

Zogby hasn't been *that* bad during the primaries, especially in the beginning.

[Saxwsylvania]

Pwned:

Obama by 14.0368%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

McCrory won! Looks like there will be a runoff, though.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No runoff for McCrory! Smith concedes!

NC Republicans aren't stupid after all!

[Verily]

Zogby hasn't been *that* bad during the primaries, especially in the beginning.

They've been inconsistent: sometimes great and sometimes terrible, but never mediocre.

[Lief 🗽]

Preliminary Delegate Numbers:

Statewide: 22O, 16C
CD1: O4, C2
CD2: O3, C3
CD3: O2, C2 (may creep up to O1, C3)
CD4: O7, C2
CD5: O2, C3
CD6: O2, C3
CD7: O3, C3
CD8: O2, C3 (may change to O3, C2)
CD9: Too early to call, 6 delegates
CD10: O2, C3
CD11: O3, C3  (Schuler will endorse the winner of CD11, who looks to be Clinton)
CD12: Too early, 7 delegates
CD13: O4, C3

So, total: 55-57O, 45-47C, with 13 too early to call.

[Mr. Morden]

Going back to the discussion in the first few pages of this thread over whether exit polls include early voters.....looks like, according to Mark Blumenthal, the answer is yes....sometimes, when there's a large number of early voters expected, though that doesn't mean they're included in those early first wave exits:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/live_blogging_north_carolina_a.php

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[Alcon]

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Sorry, Chris, my bad

[War on Want]

Come on Obama 1 more % and my prediction comes true.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

[J. J.]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

I thought it would be lower; I was surprised that Zogby got it right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

I thought it would be lower; I was surprised that Zogby got it right.

Zogby got his sweet sweet revenge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

I thought it would be lower; I was surprised that Zogby got it right.

Maybe you can quit dismissing every Zogby poll by just saying "It's Zogby." while arguing that ARG and uni polls have validity. (Not that I'm totally sold on Zogby yet, but still...)

[J. J.]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

I thought it would be lower; I was surprised that Zogby got it right.

Maybe you can quit dismissing every Zogby poll by just saying "It's Zogby." while arguing that ARG and uni polls have validity. (Not that I'm totally sold on Zogby yet, but still...)

Getting it right once is noteworthy.  Getting it wrong for 4 years is laughable.