Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Saxwsylvania]

It's really too bad that I'm not going to be with y'all this evening.  I look forward to talking about things tomorrow.

Where ever are you going?  I cling to your analyses almost as much as I cling to guns or religion.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It's really too bad that I'm not going to be with y'all this evening.  I look forward to talking about things tomorrow.

[Alcon]

Have fun Sam.  You'll be missed!

...now I won't have anyone to mindlessly parrot

[Sam Spade]

Basically, I have crap to do tonight that will keep me up all evening and which I can't be screwing around at the forum for. 

Shouldn't the fake exit polls be coming in soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Shouldn't the fake exit polls be coming in soon.

Within about 10 minutes, we should get the first AP story with useless demo information.

[Mr. Morden]

It came faster than I thought:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Alcon]

THE ECONOMY?!?!

[Sam Spade]

This is more useless than usual.

[Alcon]

Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

[Sam Spade]

Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

IN or NC?

[Mr. Morden]

The story's been updated from my earlier post to include this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Alcon]

Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

IN or NC?

NC.  IN was 49-48 unimportant

[Mr. Morden]

Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

IN or NC?

NC.  IN was 49-48 unimportant

Where did you get those numbers?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um. Those numbers... aren't... real... are they [qm]

[Sam Spade]

14% black in IN would be a little higher than I expected.  But the other numbers seem right in line.

The Wright thing is more important in NC because I suspect blacks are unwilling to tell pollsters about how much they support his beliefs.  But who knows.  We're just guessing.

[Franzl]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

[Alcon]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

Not at all.  Considering over 40% on the early voters were black, and 1/3 of polling-day ones are, that accounts for a probable black turnout of 35% or 36% -- about what I was expecting, and slightly higher than what most of the pundits and even pollsters were.

There's no depressed white rural turnout, but black turnout is better than it has been for a few primaries, looks like.  It all comes down to the breakdown of the white swing voters.

If these numbers hold up (they may not) a surprise Clinton win is likely a mathematical impossibility.

[ChrisFromNJ]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

33% is lower than expected if that is the final number. Hillary can come within 5 if she wins 65% of the white vote.

[Alcon]

In North Carolina, Clinton voters would go 45-38 Obama.  Not much help to the topline but interesting.

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

33% is lower than expected if that is the final number. Hillary can come within 5 if she wins 65% of the white vote.

Again, early voters were much more black.  You must factor them in.

[Verily]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

In addition to Alcon's explanation, who knows what they mean when they say 1/3. Could be anything from 31% to 36%; they'd call any of those one-third. And 33.3% wouldn't be incredibly low anyway.

[Sam Spade]

In North Carolina, Clinton voters would go 45-38 Obama.  Not much help to the topline but interesting.

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

33% is lower than expected if that is the final number. Hillary can come within 5 if she wins 65% of the white vote.

Again, early voters were much more black.  You must factor them in.

You know, I read your post, but I'm curious.  North Carolina is able to track who votes by race or they require you to list your race when you register.  I know that NY (or Texas) doesn't do this.

[Mr. Morden]

Drudge: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC   (no numbers are given)

[Alcon]

70-12 of Obama voters would support Clinton

You know, I read your post, but I'm curious.  North Carolina is able to track who votes by race or they require you to list your race when you register.  I know that NY (or Texas) doesn't do this.

North Carolina asks race upon registration, and apparently tracks returned ballots that way, and then breaks them down by registration and party.

So if you're an unaffiliated black male, and the only one in your precinct, what party ballot you cast is public information.

Delightful for us, kind of creepy.

[ChrisFromNJ]

In North Carolina, Clinton voters would go 45-38 Obama.  Not much help to the topline but interesting.

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

33% is lower than expected if that is the final number. Hillary can come within 5 if she wins 65% of the white vote.

Again, early voters were much more black.  You must factor them in.

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

[Alcon]

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

Uh...no?  I doubt that.  They didn't do it in California, and it showed.

They usually only do that with Washington and Oregon because the vast majority of votes there are VBM.  And if they do it, it's all a phone poll.

I don't see what's led you to believe early voters are included in exit polls.