Official Indiana Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Alcon]

98% in

Obama wins Lake by 13,000.

Call it for Clinton

[ChrisFromNJ]

Hillary gets a bump!

[Lief 🗽]

MSNBC called it.

[Torie]

C'est fini.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's over. Clinton wins by somewhere around 1.5-2 points.

[Хahar 🤔]

'Bout time.

[Хahar 🤔]

Clinton's speech was laughable. Spinning it as an Obama state? Pathetic.

[Alcon]

CNN projection

Remaining counties, not including Union, extrapolate to 1,723 net more votes for Obama.  Lake votes seem to be pretending Clinton late, but who knows where those precincts are from?

The margin should just about hold.

jfern is right.  Clinton +1.5-2.

[Beet]

I guess I jumped the gun on the fraud claim, and for that I apologize. You can never be too careful, but that first 28% was highly misleading. Oh well.

[Alcon]

Union in

68-31 Clinton, if anyone was asking.

Left over: 1% Hamilton, 3% Hancock, 2% Lake, 2% Marion, 2% Monroe.

[Dan the Roman]

I probably jumped the gun a bit as well.

[Aizen]

Tonight's winner - Barack Obama

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm ill today and this oft-hilarious thread cheered me up a great deal. Diolch!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, has anyone else noticed the relatively low Clinton margins in the coalfield areas [qm]. Interesting and would seem to back up the idea that people increasingly want things to end.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, has anyone else noticed the relatively low Clinton margins in the coalfield areas [qm]. Interesting and would seem to back up the idea that people increasingly want things to end.

I don't think anyone did specifically, nor did anyone notice what was going on around the Catholic areas. (same issue) The 5% swing wanting it over that I mentioned in the other thread naturally applies to Indiana. 

Of course, that doesn't mean that the rest of them want it to end, naturally, but as in most elections, the partisans don't control the shots.  Or at least for now - because the partisans in one election may end up being the swingers in another election (good chance of that happening this year, actually).

[Wiz in Wis]

ALL HAIL ZOGBY!

[Sam Spade]

ALL HAIL ZOGBY!

For this, you must be shot.  He still missed the call.

[Brittain33]

About Hamilton County, Indiana:

I asked a friend to explain the results in this county, which went heavily for Bush and which generated high totals for Obama that have to have come from Republicans.

She said it has grown extremely quickly recently (which we knew) and the focus has been high-tech, high-education jobs in the biological sciences and technology. It's drawn a lot of people from outside Indiana, and that Indianapolis in general and that region are doing well economically and don't have the insecurity that drives people to Clinton elsewhere. This is Obama's sweet spot. Perhaps his Illinois background helped him get a foothold where every other Democrat had failed before.

The way she described it, we may see a small chunk of the Republican coalition shifting to the Democrats as we've seen on a much larger scale in suburban Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneaplois-St. Paul and Columbus, but had not yet seen in Indianapolis. If any part of the Indianapolis suburbs were to switch, it would be the northern bit. I mentioned the argument Torie put forth that it was a massive anti-Clinton vote, and she was skeptical, although she's not someone who crunches numbers or takes a long and thorough view on this issue the way people here do.

Food for thought. I'd like to hear people's reactions. I understand it's hard to conceive of a big shift in something as reliable as suburban Indianapolis voting Republican AND that it's risky to draw conclusions from primaries, but the fact that Democratic turnout was way over Kerry's numbers and Obama nearly matched Kerry's totals is impossible to ignore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hamilton is growing at a fair old clip IIRC.

[Brittain33]

Hamilton is growing at a fair old clip IIRC.

For totals, it has probably added about 40,000 people from Nov. 04 to today. I don't know what share of them are (a) voting-age adults who (b) registered in the new county, but people who are interested in voting haven't seemed to have had problems finding their way into the process.

[Torie]

Btw, has anyone else noticed the relatively low Clinton margins in the coalfield areas [qm]. Interesting and would seem to back up the idea that people increasingly want things to end.

It does not appear there is much action these days with Indiana coal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, has anyone else noticed the relatively low Clinton margins in the coalfield areas [qm]. Interesting and would seem to back up the idea that people increasingly want things to end.

It does not appear there is much action these days with Indiana coal.

There're no pits left in the Rhondda and yet I'd still call it a coalfield area.

[Torie]

Btw, has anyone else noticed the relatively low Clinton margins in the coalfield areas [qm]. Interesting and would seem to back up the idea that people increasingly want things to end.

It does not appear there is much action these days with Indiana coal.

There're no pits left in the Rhondda and yet I'd still call it a coalfield area.

Whatever. It appeared to have no psephological impact here however.

[Alcon]

Unfortunately I can't load the cool regression analysis at school to show the areas with demographically "unexpected" results.  However, for the sake of Democratic partisan excitement, here's some vote pornography.

With but a few precincts out, Clinton and Obama received a combined 1,252,815 votes in the state of Indiana.  In 2004, John Kerry received 969,011 votes in the state.  That represents a 29.3% increase over Kerry's numbers.

Democratic ballots outnumbered Kerry ballots in 92 of the 93 counties in Indiana.  The lone exception was Ohio County (Rising Sun), a diminutive Kentucky border county with a shrinking population.  Democratic ballots there fell 0.3% short of Kerry's total.   Only a few other counties -- including Lake (Gary) and Monroe (Bloomington) were vaguely close.

On the other extreme was Dubois County (Jasper), which saw a 90.7% increase.  In total, 23 counties saw a 50% increase or more, including the counties containing Plainfield, Fishers, Greenwood, Jeffersonville, Elkhart and Terre Haute.

Unsurprisingly, GOP turnout is what I can only describe as craptastic.  Pubbie turnout fell 76.3 percent in Benton County, a small Illinois border area.  That was the GOP's best showing.  Turnout fell 96.3% in traditionally old-Democratic Perry County, infinidecimally less in Lake County and 95.1 percent in St. Joseph County (South Bend).  All in all, GOP turnout was less than 1/5 of 2004 numbers in 83 of 93 counties, and less than a tenth in 30.

I think we've verified that Gary turnout was not 95 percent. 

[Torie]

Map to mystery map.



There is a method to the madness.