Official Indiana Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Alcon]

And here is a comparison of the Clinton/Obama overperformance relative to Poblano's model (intervals of 3):



He adjusted it from Clinton +2 to Clinton +4 to conform with polls.  All considered, very impressive.  A few confusing freak-outs (Elkhart County still makes no sense to me), and he's obviously going to have to fix the model before West Virginia...as you can see.

Still damn good, and some interesting stuff to look at.

[Alcon]

Last map I promise.  D vs R



Overall 75.4% Democratic

Top GOP counties were:

1. Benton (Fowler) - 56-44 GOP (70-28 Bush)
2. Montgomery (Crawfordsville) - 52-48 GOP (75-24 Bush)
3. Huntington (Huntington) - 51-49 DEM (74-25 Bush)
4. Clinton (Frankfort) - 52-48 DEM (71-28 Bush)
5. Kosciusko (Warsaw) - 53-47 DEM (78-21 Bush, best in state)

Top DEM counties were:

1. Perry (Tell City) - 92-8 DEM (50-50 Bush)
2. Lake (Gary) - 92-8 DEM (61-38 Kerry, best in state)
3. Scott (Scottsburg) - 91-9 DEM (55-44 Bush)
4. Vermillion (Newport) - 90-10 DEM (50-49 Bush)
5. Posey (Mt. Vernon) - 90-10 DEM (65-34 Bush)

[Brittain33]

Map to mystery map.



There is a method to the madness.

Is that George Wallace in the primary? I can't think of any other time Lake County would have stood with those Clinton-loving counties along the Ohio River.

[True Democrat]

Map to mystery map.



There is a method to the madness.

Is that George Wallace in the primary? I can't think of any other time Lake County would have stood with those Clinton-loving counties along the Ohio River.

No, it's Carter's vote in 1976.

[Torie]

That's right. And if you strip out the black vote, the maps will look even more of a mirror image of each other with a couple of exceptions, like Jasper County.

[Sam Spade]

Imagine how more pronounced that map would have been if you wouldn't have had the 5% shift.

[Torie]

Hey Sam, how did the black vote in Indiana end up being 17% of the total of the Dem side?

[Sam Spade]

Hey Sam, how did the black vote in Indiana end up being 17% of the total of the Dem side?

It was quite a turnout - that's all I can say.  Color me surprised.  The blacks in OH, TX or PA didn't do it.  Lake County I can figure out why.  Marion, not as sure.

[ilikeverin]

All that matters is that Allen County voted for Obama.  Hooray for Fort Wayne!

[Flying Dog]

So who wants to explain to me why Evansville (Vanderburgh?) was so close?

[Alcon]

So who wants to explain to me why Evansville (Vanderburgh?) was so close?

Germans are better for Obama than working-class Scots-Irish/"American"s.

[Torie]

So who wants to explain to me why Evansville (Vanderburgh?) was so close?

Lincoln carried Vanderburg county in 1860. And there you have it!

[Smash255]

About Hamilton County, Indiana:

I asked a friend to explain the results in this county, which went heavily for Bush and which generated high totals for Obama that have to have come from Republicans.

She said it has grown extremely quickly recently (which we knew) and the focus has been high-tech, high-education jobs in the biological sciences and technology. It's drawn a lot of people from outside Indiana, and that Indianapolis in general and that region are doing well economically and don't have the insecurity that drives people to Clinton elsewhere. This is Obama's sweet spot. Perhaps his Illinois background helped him get a foothold where every other Democrat had failed before.

The way she described it, we may see a small chunk of the Republican coalition shifting to the Democrats as we've seen on a much larger scale in suburban Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneaplois-St. Paul and Columbus, but had not yet seen in Indianapolis. If any part of the Indianapolis suburbs were to switch, it would be the northern bit. I mentioned the argument Torie put forth that it was a massive anti-Clinton vote, and she was skeptical, although she's not someone who crunches numbers or takes a long and thorough view on this issue the way people here do.

Food for thought. I'd like to hear people's reactions. I understand it's hard to conceive of a big shift in something as reliable as suburban Indianapolis voting Republican AND that it's risky to draw conclusions from primaries, but the fact that Democratic turnout was way over Kerry's numbers and Obama nearly matched Kerry's totals is impossible to ignore.

The Indianapolis suburbswill still be comfortably Republican, but its very likely we will see a Dem shift and quite possible the shift could be quite large.  You touched a bit on it the area is seeing a rather large influx of highly educated people in the growing high tech industry, which likely also skews a bit younger.  You could also simply be seeing the suburban shift similar to the other areas you mentioned.  That shift may have taken longer in suburban Indianapolis than it did on Long Island, suburban Philly, etc.  But not all areas shifted at the same time, Northern VA's shift as well as suburban Denver's shift really started about 2 election cycles after what we saw on Long Island and suburban Philly.  Thats not to say the area still won't be solidly GOP, it will, but the days of the GOp topping or getting near 70% in Hamilton, etc is likely over

[Torie]

Hey Alcon, why are you "sure" the "turnout" in Gary was not 90%?

[Sbane]

Also are we really sure black turnout was this high? Is it possible whites voted for Obama in larger numbers than is indicated on the exit polls? Because it does not seem like Gary had an astounding turnout. Perhaps Indianapolis? I would guess he kept it close because he won by 20 points in hamilton county and kept it close in places such as suburban Indianapolis, Evansville and Elkhart county. All of those were surprises for me on election night.

[Smash255]

Also are we really sure black turnout was this high? Is it possible whites voted for Obama in larger numbers than is indicated on the exit polls? Because it does not seem like Gary had an astounding turnout. Perhaps Indianapolis? I would guess he kept it close because he won by 20 points in hamilton county and kept it close in places such as suburban Indianapolis, Evansville and Elkhart county. All of those were surprises for me on election night.

Its possible, but keep in mind the white vote in Indiana is very Republican.  Comparing it to Ohio for a bit, African Americans made up 17% of the primary vote in Indiana, 18% in Ohio.  They are about 9.5% of the population in Idiana and 12.5% in Ohio.  The reason the 3% difference in African Americans between the two states only results in a 1% difference in the Primary vote is likely due to the fact that you have many more whites in Ohio that are Democrats % wise than in Indiana.  African Americans in both states are heavily Democratic.  As a  result African Americans make up a similar % of Indiana Dems as Ohio Dems, even though the overall African American population in ohio is a bit larger.