Predicted your state in Nov.

[Verily]

New Jersey

McCain - 53%
Obama - 46%

if Clinton...

Hillary - 52%
McCain - 47%

LOL. Even Clinton would do better than Kerry did in 2004, let alone Obama. If for no reason but money, on both counts.

[emergingDmajority1]

New Jersey

McCain - 53%
Obama - 46%

if Clinton...

Hillary - 52%
McCain - 47%

LOL. Even Clinton would do better than Kerry did in 2004, let alone Obama. If for no reason but money, on both counts.

You have to consider who she'd be running against, and he'll have Lieberman and Giuliani out on the stump for him. McCain is the type of republican that will play well in NJ. Maybe I can revise it to 53-46, but you're mistaken if you think 08 is going to produce a Bush-Gore like result in NJ.

[Joe Republic]

Assuming we're talking about 2004, then yes I predicted it, and I wasn't actually that far off.  I believed that Bush would win Ohio by only a few points (which he did), but also that Kerry would win the election due to certain other states (which he didn't, lol).

I also successfully predicted that Voinovich would win re-election, which was a no-brainer, but I think I only put his vote share in the high 50's, when he actually broke 60%.  I think I withheld my prediction for the 2006 elections.

[Alcon]

Has a modern Republican ever won by seven points in New Jersey to a remotely significant office?

[Joe Republic]

Amusingly, the current three-poll rolling average has Obama +9 in NJ, while Clinton is +5.  This is tainted, however, by an extremely questionable university poll.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma:

McCain 58%
Obama 38%

Inhofe 54%
Rice 44%

House delegation will remain the same (4 Republicans, 1 Democrat)

[Lief 🗽]

Texas:

McCain 54%
Obama 44%
Other 2%

Cornyn 53%
Noriega 46%
Other 1%

[Verily]

Has a modern Republican ever won by seven points in New Jersey to a remotely significant office?

Not within the past couple of decades. Tom Kean, Sr. won 71% running for re-election in 1985, though, and George H. W. Bush won 56% in 1988. Of course, NJ is a different state now. The result will be between 2000 (gun control not an issue now) and 2004 (terrorism not an issue now, McCain won't be able to afford to campaign in NJ).

[nyquil_man]

Arkansas

President:

McCain (R): 60%
Obama (D): 40%

If there are going to be Clinton to McCain crossover voters anywhere, they'll be here.

Senator:

Pryor (D): Anywhere from 60%-90%

Pryor might not even have a Republican opponent, as all of the GOP hopefuls are waiting for a race against the more beatable Blanche Lincoln in 2010.

[Joe Republic]

Pryor (D): Anywhere from 60%-90%

Pryor might not even have a Republican opponent, as all of the GOP hopefuls are waiting for a race against the more beatable Blanche Lincoln in 2010.

Pryor is indeed unopposed this year, except for a random Green and Independent.

[Frodo]

Virginia


President

John McCain (R): 52%
Barack Obama (D): 47%
Other: 1%

Senate

Mark Warner (D): 56%
Jim Gilmore (R): 42%
Other: 2%

[nyquil_man]

Pryor is indeed unopposed this year, except for a random Green and Independent.

I thought so. Truth is, after the slaughter the GOP experienced here in '06, there aren't that many viable candidates in Arkansas. Nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb. 

[True Democrat]

This is really tough, because I really have no idea:

McCain: 49.4%
Obama: 49.2%

I think McCain will squeak out a victory, but the campaign will really determine it.

[Keystone Phil]

McCain - 51%
Obama - 47%
Others - 2%

[Joe Republic]

Pryor is indeed unopposed this year, except for a random Green and Independent.

I thought so. Truth is, after the slaughter the GOP experienced here in '06, there aren't that many viable candidates in Arkansas. Nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb. 

No kidding.    None of the House seats are being contested this year either (including AR-3).

[nyquil_man]

Pryor is indeed unopposed this year, except for a random Green and Independent.

I thought so. Truth is, after the slaughter the GOP experienced here in '06, there aren't that many viable candidates in Arkansas. Nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb. 

No kidding.    None of the House seats are being contested this year either (including AR-3).

It's one of those eccentricities of Arkansas. We're trending solid Republican nationally but still, at the state and local level, heavily Democratic. It's a lack of good candidates, more than anything.  The only Republicans who can get elected are either exceptional politicians (Huckabee) or exceptionally rich (Win Rockefeller).

But it's nothing new. After all, this is the state that in 1968 voted for George Wallace for president, Winthrop Rockefeller for governor, and J. William Fulbright for the Senate.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi:

McCain 55
Obama 44

Musgrove 51
Wicker 48

[True Democrat]

Mississippi:

McCain 55
Obama 44

Musgrove 51
Wicker 48

Once again the eternal optimistic Democrat from Mississippi I see.

[jokerman]

McCain 56
Obama 43

[7,052,770]

Mississippi:

McCain 55
Obama 44

Musgrove 51
Wicker 48

Once again the eternal optimistic Democrat from Mississippi I see.

I'm hardly the only Mississippian who believes that Wicker will not be able to win a statewide election.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No one is up for re-election except for the House seat so for President:

McCain - 53%
Obama - 45%
Others - 2%

Hart loses to Altmire for U.S. House but damn I love Melissa Hart.

Prognosticating into the future:

Casey gets re-elected when he's up again
Specter might or might not depending upon his health.  I don't think he'll be denied.

Governor is going to be fun.....Jack Wagner vs. Dan Onorato will be our Clinton/Obama knockdown drag-out primary when Bugsy is ready to go.  

[True Democrat]

No one is up for re-election except for the House seat so for President:

McCain - 53%
Obama - 45%
Others - 2%

Hart loses to Altmire for U.S. House but damn I love Melissa Hart.

Prognosticating into the future:

Casey gets re-elected when he's up again
Specter might or might not depending upon his health.  I don't think he'll be denied.

Governor is going to be fun.....Jack Wagner vs. Dan Onorato will be our Clinton/Obama knockdown drag-out primary when Bugsy is ready to go.   

Onorato will have the Rendell machine behind him.

[True Democrat]

Mississippi:

McCain 55
Obama 44

Musgrove 51
Wicker 48

Once again the eternal optimistic Democrat from Mississippi I see.

I'm hardly the only Mississippian who believes that Wicker will not be able to win a statewide election.

I wasn't referring to the Senate race.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No one is up for re-election except for the House seat so for President:

McCain - 53%
Obama - 45%
Others - 2%

Hart loses to Altmire for U.S. House but damn I love Melissa Hart.

Prognosticating into the future:

Casey gets re-elected when he's up again
Specter might or might not depending upon his health.  I don't think he'll be denied.

Governor is going to be fun.....Jack Wagner vs. Dan Onorato will be our Clinton/Obama knockdown drag-out primary when Bugsy is ready to go.   

Onorato will have the Rendell machine behind him.

Yes, he probably will.  He'll need it.  Wagner is well known here in Western PA but more importantly he's well known throughout the state and anytime he wants some statewide coverage he goes on to announce the results of some audit they did.  Onorato has to overcome that.  He's been pissing people off here lately but memories are short.

[True Democrat]

No one is up for re-election except for the House seat so for President:

McCain - 53%
Obama - 45%
Others - 2%

Hart loses to Altmire for U.S. House but damn I love Melissa Hart.

Prognosticating into the future:

Casey gets re-elected when he's up again
Specter might or might not depending upon his health.  I don't think he'll be denied.

Governor is going to be fun.....Jack Wagner vs. Dan Onorato will be our Clinton/Obama knockdown drag-out primary when Bugsy is ready to go.   

Onorato will have the Rendell machine behind him.

Yes, he probably will.  He'll need it.  Wagner is well known here in Western PA but more importantly he's well known throughout the state and anytime he wants some statewide coverage he goes on to announce the results of some audit they did.  Onorato has to overcome that.  He's been pissing people off here lately but memories are short.

But Onorato is obviously also from Western PA.  He'll hold his own in Pittsburgh (I'm assuming Ravenstahl endorses him), and with Rendell's help, he'll pull off big victories in Philly and suburbs.  The rural areas will probably go to Wagner though.  This whole thing may be fought either in NE or SW PA.