Could Obama win Indiana?

[FerrisBueller86]

Electoral-vote.com shows Obama tied with McBush in Indiana:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May11.html

If you look at the specific polls, Selzer shows Obama beating McBush by 8 percentage points.  (I would like to believe this but have difficulty doing so.)  The other two April polls show Obama within single digits of McBush.

If you believe electoral-vote.com, Obama is doing better in Indiana (not carried by any Democratic nominee since LBJ in 1964) than in New Hampshire (which Kerry won), Pennsylvania (also carried by both Gore and Kerry), and Florida (which Clinton won in 1996 and Gore may or may not have won in 2000).  Bush won nearly 60% of the vote in Indiana in 2004.  I can also confirm that Indiana is a socially conservative state, so I have difficulty imagining how a liberal can compete here.

Has Indiana changed that much in just 4 years?  Or is this the result of Obama campaigning in Indiana while McBush didn't?  Or have the pollsters been oversampling Gary, Indianapolis, and Bloomington and undersampling the rest of the state?

[Ronnie]

Absoulutely not.  Indiana is a deep red state, and it would take a massive swing to put it in his aisle.  I wouldn't count on it.

Also, quit with the McBush thing - it's getting really old.

[True Democrat]

Who's McBush?

I believe that the Republican candidate's name is John McCain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who's McBush?

Tragically it's what passes for wit on the internets.

[Frodo]

No.

[Flying Dog]

He'll do notably better, however, he won't win it.

[Aizen]

Who's McBush?

I believe that the Republican candidate's name is John McCain.

Easy to confuse the two. I don't blame him.


No, Obama cannot win Indiana. His polling comes from the fact that he just got finished flooding the media markets with himself.

[Math]

lol.

[auburntiger]

No chance Indiana flips. Election Night results = 58-42 McCain

[agcatter]

You can tell when its a day no political news is happening.  I think I'll start a thread entitled "Can McCain carry Vermont"

[kevinatcausa]

FiveThirtyEight has Obama as a slight underdog in the state, despite it's inclusion of a more recent SurveyUSA poll that electoral-vote leaves out and that has Obama ahead.   

As a side note:  One of the reasons I think Electoral-vote.com's system is problematic (at least as far as I understand it).

The SurveyUSA poll from April 29 has Obama up by 1 point.  This will either give Indiana outright to Obama or leave it as a tossup once it is included (his lead will be by 1/3 of a point...this may leave it a tie depending on how the site handles rounding.)

If the poll was from May 1st instead of April 29, it would put McCain up by 3.5 points overall in Indiana under their system (the 4/23 Selzer poll is dropped for being more than a week older than the newest poll, and the 4/24 Research 2000 poll left in). 

But if the poll was from May 2nd, it would put Obama up by 1 point, since both of the previous polls would be ignored entirely. 

[JSojourner]

You know that old saying, "Never say never."


Well...

Obama could NEVER win Indiana.  Never.  (Assuming the Republican doesn't sodomize puppies or torture little boys.  And even then -- I'd have to think about it.  It's Indiana, after all.)

[Democratic Hawk]

No, Obama can't win Indiana

He could make it closer depending on the extent to which Indiana is, economically, hurting say McCain 56 - Obama 43 but even then, unlike it's more 'populist' neighbours, Indiana seems to be, essentially, a conservative state and, thus, not by any stretch as, potentially, predisposed to electing Democrats to the White House

The more populist parts of the state can, and does, elect Blue Dog Democrats to the House. Reps. Donnelly (IN-02) and Ellsworth (IN-08) are likely to be re-elected; while Hill (IN-09) is favored against Sodrel, who was about as servile a congressional Republican to Bush as you can possibly get

Dave

[kevinatcausa]

I guess more to the point:

Can Obama win Indiana without also winning in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

If he wins the other three, Indiana probably won't matter too much.

[Хahar 🤔]

I guess more to the point:

Can Obama win Indiana without also winning in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

If he wins the other three, Indiana probably won't matter too much.

Of course not. Louisiana, probably Texas, will fall before Indiana.

[WalterMitty]

oh what the hell, lets get brtd riled up:

of course obama can win indiana if he picks bayh as his veep!

[Stranger in a strange land]

only if McCain craters and even then probably not. If Obama wins Indiana, he won't need it.

[Smash255]

It will be closer as Obama makes large gains over Kerry in the Indy suburbs, but still a strong McCain win.

[Lief 🗽]

He probably can't win, but between not being absolutely crushed in the Indy suburbs for once and increased black turnout (you saw how ridiculously high it was on Tuesday), McCain isn't going to win it by 20 points again.

[JSojourner]

oh what the hell, lets get brtd riled up:

of course obama can win indiana if he picks bayh as his veep!

LOL!

Actually, Bayh couldn't win Indiana at the top of the ticket.  Hoosiers are willing to elect very conservative Democrats to the offices of Governor, Senator, Congressman or Mayor.  But never to the office of President.  I don't even think having one of their own as the candidate would swing the state.  As popular as Bayh is here, there's something in the Hoosier DNA that says you never vote Democrat for President.  Frankly, I am still shocked that Lyndon won here in 1964.

[Lunar]

Keeping in mind that nothing stays the same forever, if you want to look at states that are strongholds on either side possibly switching alliances in 2008 presidential election, just consider their people, their concerns, and the recent 2006 midterm elections in regards to any change in state's governorship and U.S.senate.

From what I've read, Indiana may continue to vote Republican. But there is question. So, too, with Virginia.

As for what people are thinking regarding the likely McCain-vs.-Obama matchup, get a feel for the mood of how people are liable to handle the vote -- in addition to the makeup in the Electoral College -- and it's a lot to consider.

I think you are focusing attention to the people and their dreams and hopes as the catalyst for state change.  However, most states change parties due to one thing: demographics.  Things don't stay the same, but it's unlikely that a bunch of people who voted Bush are going to be easily swayed to vote Obama.  Old Democrats and new voters (transplants or newly registered) can be turned out in larger numbers than previous years, but it can't override the fact that ideological support is intrinsically rooted in demographics.  Many states have elected Democrats in 2006 because of the general collapse of many local Republican parties (among other things) but that can't necessarily be extended to a more liberal national candidate.

It must be pointed out that I only am talking about states changing parties.  Parties can change states by moving themselves around ideologically, like, hypothetically becoming pro-slavery.

[Franzl]

Things won't be like 2004 forever!

And no, Obama will win Alaska before he takes Indiana.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He probably can't win, but between not being absolutely crushed in the Indy suburbs for once and increased black turnout (you saw how ridiculously high it was on Tuesday), McCain isn't going to win it by 20 points again.

Obama will be as "absolutely crushed" in the Indy suburbs as any other Democrat. Hey, if McCain plays a subtle race-card, Obama might even do worse than the norm in such places.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I actually thought this was a thread regarding the Indiana Primary and even if it was I would have said No. In the General, Obama won't win Indiana. It's as simple as that. He might slightly perform better there than Kerry did back in 2004 but I highly doubt it, even if he does come from Illinois.

[JSojourner]

He probably can't win, but between not being absolutely crushed in the Indy suburbs for once and increased black turnout (you saw how ridiculously high it was on Tuesday), McCain isn't going to win it by 20 points again.

Obama will be as "absolutely crushed" in the Indy suburbs as any other Democrat. Hey, if McCain plays a subtle race-card, Obama might even do worse than the norm in such places.

Spot-on!  Race-baiting is very effective here.