Could Obama win Indiana?

[Brittain33]

Obama will be as "absolutely crushed" in the Indy suburbs as any other Democrat. Hey, if McCain plays a subtle race-card, Obama might even do worse than the norm in such places.

Did you see the results in Hamilton County, one of the more affluent and better-educated suburbs? Obama got nearly as many votes as Kerry did in '04, and beat Clinton with a respectable showing.

I wouldn't have believed it either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama will be as "absolutely crushed" in the Indy suburbs as any other Democrat. Hey, if McCain plays a subtle race-card, Obama might even do worse than the norm in such places.

Did you see the results in Hamilton County, one of the more affluent and better-educated suburbs? Obama got nearly as many votes as Kerry did in '04, and beat Clinton with a respectable showing.

Yes I did, but I would be very careful about drawing too much from it.

[Democratic Hawk]

Who's McBush?

I believe that the Republican candidate's name is John McCain.

There used to be clear blue-sky between McCain and Bush, but since McCain had to pander to the reactionary wing of his party you cannot get a cigarette rolling paper between the two of them

I wouldn't care, following Giuliani's implosion, McCain would have won the GOP nomination without even bothering to whore out to the 'very conservatives'

To their credit, neither Clinton nor Obama have had to pander anywhere near to the same extent, if at all; both have been supported throughout this primary cycle by Democratic primary voters of all colors; whether very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative (yes, there are still a few Democrats that way inclined)

I know where I'd stand with Clinton and Obama; McCain is like a Weather Vane (or Vain, rather) blowing whichever way it suits him, when it suits him

Dave

[True Democrat]

Who's McBush?

I believe that the Republican candidate's name is John McCain.

There used to be clear blue-sky between McCain and Bush, but since McCain had to pander to the reactionary wing of his party you cannot get a cigarette rolling paper between the two of them

Regardless of your opinion of him and his relationship with a President you disagree with, I am trying to make a point that he is United States Senator and deserves the respect that comes with the office.

I have never resorted to personal attack on President Bush because I feel as though it is attacking the office.  I afford the same respect to Congressmen, Senators, and Presidential candidates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama will be as "absolutely crushed" in the Indy suburbs as any other Democrat. Hey, if McCain plays a subtle race-card, Obama might even do worse than the norm in such places.

Did you see the results in Hamilton County, one of the more affluent and better-educated suburbs? Obama got nearly as many votes as Kerry did in '04, and beat Clinton with a respectable showing.

I wouldn't have believed it either.

I would've. Those type of places are always strong for Obama.

But yes, Obama will get destroyed in the Indianapolis suburbs. Not because he's black, but because he has a (D) next to his name. He might solidify Marion county though.

[Democratic Hawk]

Who's McBush?

I believe that the Republican candidate's name is John McCain.

There used to be clear blue-sky between McCain and Bush, but since McCain had to pander to the reactionary wing of his party you cannot get a cigarette rolling paper between the two of them

Regardless of your opinion of him and his relationship with a President you disagree with, I am trying to make a point that he is United States Senator and deserves the respect that comes with the office.

I have never resorted to personal attack on President Bush because I feel as though it is attacking the office.  I afford the same respect to Congressmen, Senators, and Presidential candidates.

Politicians have to earn my respect but I see your point

Dave

[MarkWarner08]

LOL @ the otherwise sensible Marc Ambinder who now lists Indiana as a "Tilt McCain" state. If McCain loses Indiana, the networks should immediately declare Obama the winner.

[Sam Spade]

Depends on how much of a % that the Daley graveyard shift can pull out of Gary, Indiana.

[MarkWarner08]

Depends on how much of a % that the Daley graveyard shift can pull out of Gary, Indiana.

After seeing Gary's inept fool of a mayor on CNN last week, I doubt he could rig an election for dogcatcher.

[Sam Spade]

Depends on how much of a % that the Daley graveyard shift can pull out of Gary, Indiana.

After seeing Gary's inept fool of a mayor on CNN last week, I doubt he could rig an election for dogcatcher.

Who said he would be the one rigging the election.  It's a joke, anyways. 

Though when the precinct numbers are available (through Alcon), I want to have a serious look.  Unless I examined the numbers incorrectly, Lake County had about 70,000 less registered voters coming into primary 2008 than general election 2004.

[MarkWarner08]

Depends on how much of a % that the Daley graveyard shift can pull out of Gary, Indiana.

After seeing Gary's inept fool of a mayor on CNN last week, I doubt he could rig an election for dogcatcher.

Who said he would be the one rigging the election.  It's a joke, anyways. 

Though when the precinct numbers are available (through Alcon), I want to have a serious look.  Unless I examined the numbers incorrectly, Lake County had about 70,000 less registered voters coming into primary 2008 than general election 2004.

Perhaps "rig" has too many negative connotations to be used in that context.  I only sought to insinuate that there are legal (and not so legal, but not overtly illegal) ways to unduly influence the outcome of an election. Petitioning for longer voting hours, busing senile voters to the polls (Holt-Zimmer 2000, anyone?), and giving all public workers the day off (let's celebrate Cuatro de Noviembre...).

[jamestroll]

oh what the hell, lets get brtd riled up:

of course obama can win indiana if he picks bayh as his veep!

LOL!

Actually, Bayh couldn't win Indiana at the top of the ticket.  Hoosiers are willing to elect very conservative Democrats to the offices of Governor, Senator, Congressman or Mayor.  But never to the office of President.  I don't even think having one of their own as the candidate would swing the state.  As popular as Bayh is here, there's something in the Hoosier DNA that says you never vote Democrat for President.  Frankly, I am still shocked that Lyndon won here in 1964.

haha obama won indiana..

Your state did not have media outlets that consistently brought up Ayers and Wright like Missouri did.

[Lief 🗽]

He probably can't win, but between not being absolutely crushed in the Indy suburbs for once and increased black turnout (you saw how ridiculously high it was on Tuesday), McCain isn't going to win it by 20 points again.

Obama will be as "absolutely crushed" in the Indy suburbs as any other Democrat. Hey, if McCain plays a subtle race-card, Obama might even do worse than the norm in such places.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, he was absolutely crushed there, just not (anywhere near) so much as normal

Beyond that, meh. Things change. And if you'd told me in May that McCain wouldn't play the race card, I wouldn't have believed you.

[emailking]

I read the whole thread. Hilarious. Better than the NE-2 posts that can be found. When will people learn not to speak in absolute terms about the future? Possibly never.

[bgwah]

I still don't understand how the hell Obama won Indiana...

[Franzl]

I still don't understand how the hell Obama won Indiana...

I don't either....but let's just enjoy it

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still don't understand how the hell Obama won Indiana...

Biggest factor is the fact that Obama did very well in areas were the economy is dominated by manufacturing but which are also relatively prosperous (until the past few years, anyway). Look at Elkhart county; Bush took 70% there in 2004, McCain 55% there this time.

[minionofmidas]

When will people learn not to speak in absolute terms about the future? Possibly never.

Point in case.

[JSojourner]

I'm so glad I offered this little nugget of wisdom...

You know that old saying, "Never say never."

Well...

Obama could NEVER win Indiana.  Never.

[JSojourner]

I still don't understand how the hell Obama won Indiana...

Me either.  I have to believe a lot of it was McCain being perceived by the state's Republicans as a "liberal".  Palin got the Talibagelicals excited but not much else.  Well, she got me excited...but that's a different thing entirely.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I still don't understand how the hell Obama won Indiana...

Me either.  I have to believe a lot of it was McCain being perceived by the state's Republicans as a "liberal".  Palin got the Talibagelicals excited but not much else.  Well, she got me excited...but that's a different thing entirely.

I think it had a lot to do with the fact that Obama v McCain 2008 brings out an entirely different electorate from Bush v Kerry 2004. The 2004 election was more about social issues than any other in recent memory. They barely registered in 2008. White evangelicals are an aging demographic, and their children are more moderate on almost every issue.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I actually thought this was a thread regarding the Indiana Primary and even if it was I would have said No. In the General, Obama won't win Indiana. It's as simple as that. He might slightly perform better there than Kerry did back in 2004 but I highly doubt it, even if he does come from Illinois.

Looking back at my previous statements regarding Indiana, I really should have taken into consideration how much of a factor the economy would have been in resulting in an Obama victory on November 4. Even until Election Day, I still doubted how much of a factor that particular issue would be. Oh well, at least he won Indiana, something which I never expected in all my years of following American politics.

I still don't understand how the hell Obama won Indiana...

I have to believe a lot of it was McCain being perceived by the state's Republicans as a "liberal".

Really? It always amuses me when people consider John McCain either a moderate even a liberal, hehe. Why can't conservatives, in particular from the Religious Right grasp that he is a conservative? I mean, one only has to look at his voting record.....

[Lunar]

This thread is pretty hilarious, and it wasn't from like 2005 or anything too.

It just proves how stupid we are sometimes (although I never said "nope").

[Lief 🗽]

Well, I'm proud that I only said "probably" not back in May.

Also, I think a huge part of Obama's win was his much superior ground operation, both in registering voters and turning out voters. If you look at the vote totals for 2004 and 2008, McCain didn't really drop all that much. But Obama picked up a lot of new votes.

2004
Bush: 1,479,438
Kerry: 969,011

2008
Obama: 1,374,049 (+405,038)
McCain: 1,345,648 (-133,790)

This is especially apparent in the Indy suburbs, where the Republican vote total was more or less unchanged, but the Democrat vote total near doubled.