Hilarious poll out of PA 4

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?

He seems pretty neutral.  All he said was that he was reluctant to endorse Clinton because she would bring out an avalanche of Republican voters in his district. 

Which is something Phil is missing. Hillary is hardly beloved in that district. She may be more popular among Democrats, but most of the Democrats would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is even if they greatly preferred Hillary in the primary. However Hillary would bring out the GOP much stronger against him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?

He seems pretty neutral.  All he said was that he was reluctant to endorse Clinton because she would bring out an avalanche of Republican voters in his district. 

Which is something Phil is missing. Hillary is hardly beloved in that district. She may be more popular among Democrats, but most of the Democrats would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is even if they greatly preferred Hillary in the primary. However Hillary would bring out the GOP much stronger against him.

And guess what? Obama will hardly be beloved in that district and I wouldn't be so such that Dems out that way "would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is."

Just about everywhere the vast majority of Democrats will vote for whoever the Dem nominee is. Even 75% of Democrats is the vast majority.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What I found hilarious actually was Altmire's ads. Not that they were hilarious in themselves (they were quite good of course) but how they completely contradicted what Phil said at the time. They were standard 2006 anti-Republican ad, but the one I remember went like this "Melissa Hart keeps voting with Rick Santorum and George Bush..." *picture of Hart flies up next to pictures of Santorum and Bush as voiceover goes over a laundry list of Hart votes*. And this is in a part of the state which at the time Phil and soulty kept telling us Santorum was absolutely beloved. But hey, no one's going to argue with success.

Anyway, if Altmire can run the same type of campaign, he should have little problems. Just run contrast ads between their voting records (Basic "Melissa Hart kept voting against raising the minimum wage, Jason Altmire helped increase it, Jason Altmire is helping get out of Iraq, Melissa Hart kept voting to "stay the course", etc. type stuff.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, Santorum sure kicked ass in Beaver county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, Santorum sure kicked ass in Beaver county.

Yay for you! You picked out a county he lost pretty badly and ignored several other counties that were rather competitive!

Beaver County is the core of Democratic support in that district. That's why I picked it.

I see no county in western PA where Santorum did well except the hardcore GOP ones like Butler. Hell, Swann did better than Santorum out west.