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  NC: Public Policy Polling: McCain leads Obama by 7, Clinton by 8
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Author Topic: NC: Public Policy Polling: McCain leads Obama by 7, Clinton by 8  (Read 1422 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 12, 2008, 10:34:40 am »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-05-09

Summary: D: 38%, R: 46%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


McCain: 49%
Obama: 42%
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2008, 10:40:37 am »

Darn you I was getting ready to add them!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2008, 10:49:14 am »

Obama would need 31-32% of Whites and 95% of African-Americans to win NC, if the composition is 68% White, 28% Black and 4% Asian/Latino.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2008, 10:51:15 am »

Obama would need 31-32% of Whites and 95% of African-Americans to win NC, if the composition is 68% White, 28% Black and 4% Asian/Latino.

He could do that, but it would would need to spend some money, and run a good race.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2008, 10:56:26 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   

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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2008, 11:00:57 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



We will win over 90% of the white voters that voted for Clinton.
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Franzl
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2008, 11:04:02 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



We will win over 90% of the white voters that voted for Clinton.

Don't be too sure. I think that depends quite a bit on the state. In North Carolina, I doubt 90% of Clinton voters will go to Obama.

North Carolina will not be winnable for Obama. We should focus on other states where we have a realistic chance. If we should pull an upset in North Carolina, it'll be nice, but we wouldn't need it anymore.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2008, 11:12:51 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



We will win over 90% of the white voters that voted for Clinton.

Don't be too sure. I think that depends quite a bit on the state. In North Carolina, I doubt 90% of Clinton voters will go to Obama.

North Carolina will not be winnable for Obama. We should focus on other states where we have a realistic chance. If we should pull an upset in North Carolina, it'll be nice, but we wouldn't need it anymore.

You guys are playing NC off has this hard core republican state. It isn't, I'm not saying NC will go Democratic this Nov, but I 80% sure it will in 2012.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2008, 11:15:20 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



We will win over 90% of the white voters that voted for Clinton.

Don't be too sure. I think that depends quite a bit on the state. In North Carolina, I doubt 90% of Clinton voters will go to Obama.

North Carolina will not be winnable for Obama. We should focus on other states where we have a realistic chance. If we should pull an upset in North Carolina, it'll be nice, but we wouldn't need it anymore.

You guys are playing NC off has this hard core republican state. It isn't, I'm not saying NC will go Democratic this Nov, but I 80% sure it will in 2012.

It is a hardcore Republican state. It hasn't voted Democrat since 1976, and that only because JImmy Carter was running.

If Obama could not pull ahead in the polls after flooding NC's markets with ads during the primary, he's not going to win here. It will be probably less than 10% in the end, but it's not a swing state and it will be more like VA in 2012.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2008, 11:20:01 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



We will win over 90% of the white voters that voted for Clinton.

Don't be too sure. I think that depends quite a bit on the state. In North Carolina, I doubt 90% of Clinton voters will go to Obama.

North Carolina will not be winnable for Obama. We should focus on other states where we have a realistic chance. If we should pull an upset in North Carolina, it'll be nice, but we wouldn't need it anymore.

You guys are playing NC off has this hard core republican state. It isn't, I'm not saying NC will go Democratic this Nov, but I 80% sure it will in 2012.

It is a hardcore Republican state. It hasn't voted Democrat since 1976, and that only because JImmy Carter was running.

If Obama could not pull ahead in the polls after flooding NC's markets with ads during the primary, he's not going to win here. It will be probably less than 10% in the end, but it's not a swing state and it will be more like VA in 2012.

Since the last election NC has in population increase of one million people almost. Most of them people that are of voting age came from up north. Also the 18-25 year olds are more liberal then their parents and the most consv age group are dieing off. NC this year will be within 5%.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2008, 11:25:08 am »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



We will win over 90% of the white voters that voted for Clinton.

Don't be too sure. I think that depends quite a bit on the state. In North Carolina, I doubt 90% of Clinton voters will go to Obama.

North Carolina will not be winnable for Obama. We should focus on other states where we have a realistic chance. If we should pull an upset in North Carolina, it'll be nice, but we wouldn't need it anymore.

You guys are playing NC off has this hard core republican state. It isn't, I'm not saying NC will go Democratic this Nov, but I 80% sure it will in 2012.

It is a hardcore Republican state. It hasn't voted Democrat since 1976, and that only because JImmy Carter was running.

If Obama could not pull ahead in the polls after flooding NC's markets with ads during the primary, he's not going to win here. It will be probably less than 10% in the end, but it's not a swing state and it will be more like VA in 2012.

Since the last election NC has in population increase of one million people almost. Most of them people that are of voting age came from up north. Also the 18-25 year olds are more liberal then their parents and the most consv age group are dieing off. NC this year will be within 5%.

My word is just as good as yours, and I think most people will say that NC will be Republican with a 7-10% margin. Not even Virginia was within 5% in 2004 and it probably will be barely this year. The leftward trends of both of these states are really being blown out of proportion. The transplants aren't 100% liberal either. If this state was going to be in play, it would already be showing signs of it. Candidates aren't going to be running ads in states where they trail by 7-10% in most polls. They will focus on VA, MI, WI, PA, OH, NH, CO etc..

Colorado is a real swing state this year, not North Carolina. NC's population, according to 2007 estimates, has increased by 1.11 million in 8 years, not since 2004. That would be truly overwhelming growth.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2008, 06:23:17 pm »

NC seems like a major longshot.  He had a hard time getting 30% of whites in a Democratic Primary.  Getting 30% overall?  Not likely, and even then he would have to get black turnout up BIG time. 

He's better off spending money in Virginia.  If he runs up big numbers in NoVA and runs a good campaign in the rest of the state, he could pull an upset.  Blue-collar workers aren't convinced yet, though.  He needs to be able to do that.   



He got 37% of whites in the primary.
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