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JSojourner
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« on: November 06, 2008, 03:33:19 pm »

Which of these did you predict would break 60% for the winning candidate?

OBAMA

Vermont  67%
Massachusetts  62%
Rhode Island  63%
Connecticut   60%
New York   62%
Delaware  61%
Maryland  61%
D.C.     93%
Illinois   62%
California  61%
Hawaii  72%

(I think I predicted them all except Connecticut and New York, which I had upper 50's.  I got Delaware right, but actually predicted 65-67%)

McCain

Alabama   61%
Oklahoma  66%
Utah   63%
Wyoming  65%
Idaho   61%
Alaska  62%

(I got them all.  My biggest mistake was a hail mary prediction, with no basis in reality, that Louisiana would be close but still go for McCain.  It nearly broke 60.)
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tokar
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2008, 03:42:02 pm »

My prediction page: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=9653

OBAMA

Vermont - CHECK
Massachusetts - CHECK
Rhode Island - CHECK
Connecticut - CHECK
New York - CHECK
Delaware - CHECK
Maryland - CHECK
D.C. - CHECK
Illinois - CHECK
California - nope...i put it at 50%+
Hawaii - CHECK


McCain

Alabama - nope...i put it at 50%+
Oklahoma - CHECK
Utah - CHECK
Wyoming - CHECK
Idaho - CHECK
Alaska - nope...i put it at 50%+


I didn't expect turnout to be very high in California...
I expected larger than expected African American turnout in Alabama...
I expected a Stevens backlash in Alaska...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2008, 04:52:05 pm »
« Edited: September 11, 2009, 04:22:45 pm by The Word »

I got virtually all of them right except I don't think I had McCain breaking 60% in Wyoming. I'm not sure what I was smoking on that one.
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RJ
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2008, 06:33:27 pm »

Lost in all of this is the fact that Nevada went 58% for Obama! I think that state's polling is the most surprising(at least to me.)
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CultureKing
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2008, 06:44:14 pm »

Will Washington break 60%? King county still has yet to report a large number of ballots and it went 70% for Obama.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2008, 06:45:18 pm »

YES:
Vermont  67%
Massachusetts  62%
Rhode Island  63%
New York   62%
Delaware  61%
Maryland  61%
D.C.     93%
Illinois   62%
California  61%
Hawaii  72%
Alabama   61%
Oklahoma  66%
Utah   63%
Wyoming  65%
Idaho   61%

NO:
Alaska  62%
Connecticut   60%
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2008, 07:05:34 pm »

OBAMA

Vermont  67% YES
Massachusetts  62% YES
Rhode Island  63% YES
Connecticut   60% NO
New York   62% YES
Delaware  61% NO
Maryland  61% NO
D.C.     93% YES
Illinois   62% YES
California  61% YES
Hawaii  72% YES, but I predicted >60%, not >70%

McCain

Alabama   61% NO
Oklahoma  66% NO
Utah   63% YES
Wyoming  65% YES
Idaho   61% YES
Alaska  62% YES
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2008, 07:29:35 pm »

I got AK, CA, DE, and MD wrong.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2008, 08:52:44 pm »

For me,  I under-predicted Obama in general:

Correct:
Vermont
Rhode Island
New York
DC
Illinois
Alabama
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho

Right and wrong, but actually wrong: Hawaii (I put more than 60, but not 70)

Wrong:
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Maryland (I remember coming soooo close to putting D>60)
California (surprised me the most)
Alaska
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PGSable
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2008, 09:50:25 pm »
« Edited: September 08, 2009, 08:39:27 am by PGSable »

California – no
Connecticut – no
Delaware – yes
DC – yes
Illinois – yes
Maryland – no
Massachusetts – no
New York – yes
Rhode Island – no
Vermont – yes
Hawaii – yes (but not over 70%)

Alabama – yes
Alaska – no
Idaho – yes
Oklahoma – yes
Utah – yes
Wyoming – yes
I also had McCain over 60% in Nebraska.
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Workers' Friend
Bob Dole
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2008, 09:52:24 pm »

I didn't know so many states would be as polarized.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2008, 04:20:10 pm »

I forgot to say I also had California wrong...I had it at about 56%.
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CheeseWhiz
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2008, 07:15:24 pm »
« Edited: November 08, 2008, 10:55:32 am by CheeseWhiz »

I've been waiting for a thread to post this in, and this seems like a good excuse to Tongue


This was my prediction map on Nov. 3rd, I'm pretty proud of it; my shades were pretty close.  I expected Delaware, California and Connecticut to be high 50s.  I'm not really sure why I decided against putting Alaska at +60, I waffled on it a bit...  I guess I just couldn't convince myself that Palin could really help McCain in any state Tongue  I know she did, I just still have a hard time wrapping my head around why Tongue

The only states I got wrong, (MO, NC & IN,) were the last states to be called and the hardest predictions I made.  The only state I think I did badly in predicting was Nevada, which I thought would be almost as close as the other three, but I think that surprised a lot of people, so I don't feel too badly Grin

EDIT: Forgot, I also predicted Nebraska at +60.  I also didn't think Obama would win it's 2nd district, but I thought it'd be kinda close, like 51-48 or something.
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officepark
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« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2009, 11:34:46 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2009, 11:38:31 pm by True Conservative »

My predictions:

AL: R>60%
CA: D>50%
CT: D>50%
DE: D>50%
HI: D>60%
ID: R>60%
IL: D>60%
MD: D>60%
MA: D>50%
NY: D>50%
OK: R>60%
RI: D>60%
UT: R>60%
VT: D>50%
WY: R>50%

(and I predicted DC as D>90%)
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2009, 01:35:55 pm »

I didn't know so many states would be as polarized.

I miss you.
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pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2009, 03:02:16 pm »

OBAMA

Vermont  CHECK
Massachusetts  CHECK
Rhode Island   missed it...
Connecticut   missed it...
New York   CHECK
Delaware  CHECK
Maryland  CHECK
D.C.     CHECK
Illinois   CHECK
California  missed it
Hawaii CHECK


McCain

Alabama   CHECK
Oklahoma  CHECK
Utah   CHECK
Wyoming  65%
Idaho   Missed it...
Alaska  missed it...
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Dr. RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2009, 05:00:24 pm »

As it turns out, Alaska didn't break 60% McCain...
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muon2
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2009, 05:07:27 pm »

On a related note, it seems that the scoring for the predictions could be improved in one way. The current scoring awards a point for the correct state and then another point for a correct percentage if the state is correct. When there are states that have under 50% for the winner, a wrong prediction but with the right percentage could be worth 1 out of 2 points instead of 0.

For example in 2008 a pick of MO for Obama with 40% or more was worth 0 points since the state was wrong. But the prediction of Obama winning with 40% to 50% implies that McCain also would not exceed 50%. That is what happened, so why not give a point for the correct percentage.

[/tangent]
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memphis
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2009, 09:21:57 pm »

Amazing how many there are. Except for huge landslides, 60% states were fairly rare in the second half of the 20th century. Kennedy had Georgia, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island against Nixon's Kansas and Nebraska. Carter had Arkansas and Georgia against Ford's Utah.
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benconstine
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2009, 04:22:07 pm »

Amazing how many there are. Except for huge landslides, 60% states were fairly rare in the second half of the 20th century. Kennedy had Georgia, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island against Nixon's Kansas and Nebraska. Carter had Arkansas and Georgia against Ford's Utah.

In 1944, FDR only had one 60% state outside of the South (Utah), and Dewey only had Kansas.
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change08
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2009, 11:08:42 am »

Amazing how many there are. Except for huge landslides, 60% states were fairly rare in the second half of the 20th century. Kennedy had Georgia, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island against Nixon's Kansas and Nebraska. Carter had Arkansas and Georgia against Ford's Utah.

In 1944, FDR only had one 60% state outside of the South (Utah), and Dewey only had Kansas.

I didn't know FDR got 60% in Utah. That's rather cool... it is a Democrat and Utah after all.
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Rob
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2009, 01:22:53 pm »

I didn't know FDR got 60% in Utah. That's rather cool... it is a Democrat and Utah after all.

Needless to say, things were a lot different back then. Utah was much poorer, and there were no social issues to control the Mormons with. William Jennings Bryan got 83 percent in the state, in 1896; in 1928, it was Al Smith's best state outside the South and three Northeastern states with large Catholic populations.
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strangeland
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2009, 09:08:49 am »

Amazing how many there are. Except for huge landslides, 60% states were fairly rare in the second half of the 20th century. Kennedy had Georgia, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island against Nixon's Kansas and Nebraska. Carter had Arkansas and Georgia against Ford's Utah.

It's more amazing that McCain lost the popular vote nearly as badly as Dukakis, yet managed to get far more electoral votes AND break 60% in six states.
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