Kentucky - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Alcon]

So, will Obama carry any counties?  How bad will the slaughter be?

Let's get the ball rolling!

[ChrisFromNJ]

The last big election day until November - it's going to be a long wait after this. It's been fun, though.

My guess? Obama won't carry a single county.

[Alcon]

Poblano's model says Clinton by 19.  He's very skeptical of it too, but his models have been great with margins before now.   His actually guesstimate says that Obama might be able to keep it within 25, but he personally disagrees with the model.

I'm also questioning whether Obama can even manage to beat "Other" (Uncommitted + Edwards) in KY-5.  It will certainly be nasty.

[Meeker]

The last big election day until November - it's going to be a long wait after this. It's been fun, though.

No love for South Dakota and Montana?

Or Puerto Rico?

[Joe Biden 2020]

The last big election day until November - it's going to be a long wait after this. It's been fun, though.

No love for South Dakota and Montana?

Or Puerto Rico?

The three places combined have a total of 80-some pledged delegates.  So, yeah, this is the last big election day for 5 1/2 months.

What time do the Kentucky polls close?

[bergie72]

According to thegreenpapers.com:

Polling hours 6:00a EDT (1000 UTC) / 6:00a CDT (1100 UTC) to 6:00p EDT (2200 UTC) / 6:00p CDT (2300 UTC). Poll closing time could be rather problematic in KENTUCKY. A large chunk of the state is in CDT [but the networks consider that "most of the polls have closed" in KENTUCKY by 6 PM EDT. CDT voters in KENTUCKY may note the networks' willingness/eagerness to project a winner as early as 6 PM EDT.


http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/KY-D.phtml

[Meeker]

It seems as if turnout in Kentucky is generally light, or at least lighter than expected.

[Mr. Morden]

A large chunk of the state is in CDT [but the networks consider that "most of the polls have closed" in KENTUCKY by 6 PM EDT. CDT voters in KENTUCKY may note the networks' willingness/eagerness to project a winner as early as 6 PM EDT.

I know you're just quoting the Green Papers, so this isn't directed at you, but....the networks never do that anymore.  After the Florida 2000 fiasco, they agreed to stop projecting states until after all of the polling places in a state had closed.  They also no longer release their full exit polls until 100% of precincts are closed.

But they *will* report early returns at whatever pace the state releases them.

[WalterMitty]

prediction:

clinton: 58%
obama: 35%
edwards: 7%

media declares clinton the loser because she didnt win by 40.

[Alcon]

Bowling Green: "Light turnout"
Louisville: "Above average"
Louisville: "Busy"
Frankfort: "No line"
Somewhere: "Light turnout"
Lexington: "Extremely low turnout"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, will Obama carry any counties?

The sort of counties to watch are the same sort as in WV. It's interesting to note that in WV some traditionally Republican counties went monolithically for Clinton, while in others Obama polled fairly respectably. The last two words being relative terms.

Recap:

*counties with large student populations
*'' '' of people in professional occupations*
*'' '' blacks
*'' '' working in the public sector, civil service especially.
*'' '' traditionally Republican (but see above)

Are the ones to watch. If he wins anywhere that can't be fitted into the above, then he's done well.

*How much research into the difference in voting patterns between people with professional occupations on the one hand and managerial occupations on the other has there been in the U.S. [qm]. I've noticed certain patterns from census data and have come to my own conclusions already, but all the same...

[Alcon]

Turnout reports I'm seeing seem to break down:  55% low, 15% average, 20% above average, 10% high.

These may be the most pessimistic descriptions of turnout for a major election I've ever heard.

Turnout is projected to reach around 25%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout is projected to reach around 25%.

I think that's lower than in Maes-G a few weeks back... higher than where I live though!

[Eraserhead]

Low turnot might actually help Obama in KY, no?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Low turnot might actually help Obama in KY, no?

Might do. Might also be very bad news indeed. The issue is whether it is caused by Clinton supporters staying at home, or whether it is normal low turnout (if so then an even more disproportionate share than normal of the vote be cast by the elderly).

[Alcon]

Low turnot might actually help Obama in KY, no?

If turnout in Oregon is near 70% and it is 25% in Kentucky, that won't exactly help Clinton in the PV.  Otherwise it depends a lot on what kind of voter is or isn't turning out.

Kentucky voting less probably isn't going to hurt Obama.  The anecdotal reports out of Louisville seem more positive than elsewhere.  Don't get your hopes up, though.

What Al said, basically.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout is projected to reach around 25%.

I think that's lower than in Maes-G a few weeks back... higher than where I live though!

No. Wait. That's turnout of Democrats only, right [qm]. What's half of 25%. Uh. 10. Two. A half. 12.5%. Hah.

[Alcon]

25% may actually be overall in Kentucky, which would likely put Democratic turnout higher...although still not necessarily un-low.

[Eraserhead]

Low turnot might actually help Obama in KY, no?

If turnout in Oregon is near 70% and it is 25% in Kentucky, that won't exactly help Clinton in the PV.  Otherwise it depends a lot on what kind of voter is or isn't turning out.

Kentucky voting less probably isn't going to hurt Obama.  The anecdotal reports out of Louisville seem more positive than elsewhere.  Don't get your hopes up, though.

What Al said, basically.

ha. My hopes certainly aren't up. Still, I'd be satisfied to happy if he lost by anything less than 30 points.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

25% may actually be overall in Kentucky, which would likely put Democratic turnout higher...although still not necessarily un-low.

Oh damn. C'mon, beat Deiniol ward for awful, tragicomic turnouts!

Edit:

Deiniol

D.Llewelyn   PC   104  Elected
G.A.Roberts Lab   88   Elected
J.R.Jones    LDem  63

About 1,400 people live in Deiniol. In the above election (for the City Council) you got two votes each...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

prediction:

clinton: 58%
obama: 35%
edwards: 7%

media MSNBC declares clinton the loser because she didnt win by 40.

The rest I can buy.

[Alcon]

Oregon recession numbers (71-29):

A great deal 28%
Somewhat 43%
Not much 17%
Not at all 12%

Kentucky recession numbers (87-12):

A great deal 45%
Somewhat 42%
Not much 10%
Not at all 2%

As Morden pointed out, other exciting findings: Kentucky voters are pretty conservative, tend to be more rural and today is a day ending in the letter "y."

[Torie]

So, will Obama carry any counties?  How bad will the slaughter be?

Let's get the ball rolling!

I would think Obama would have a pretty good shot at carrying Jefferson County. That is about it.

[Verily]

Anecdotally, it seems that Obama could win McCracken County (Paducah), at least based on only a pair of online reports. Which aren't very reliable but seemed to suggest a lot of Obama organization and signs there, which does make sense given that it border Illinois. I also wouldn't count out Boone and Kenton Counties (Covington and other Cincinnati suburbs).

[Torie]

Anecdotally, it seems that Obama could win McCracken County (Paducah), at least based on only a pair of online reports. Which aren't very reliable but seemed to suggest a lot of Obama organization and signs there, which does make sense given that it border Illinois. I also wouldn't count out Boone and Kenton Counties (Covington and other Cincinnati suburbs).

I wouldn't count on any of that myself. It ain't going to happen. Paducah? Paducah!