Kentucky - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread
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Author Topic: Kentucky - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread  (Read 11012 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #25 on: May 20, 2008, 04:39:31 PM »
More useless exit poll info:

http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/20/kentucky-voters-tell-strangers-how-they-feel-about-obama/

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Is that the biggest "duh" in all of exit poll reporting?
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Alcon
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« Reply #26 on: May 20, 2008, 04:41:52 PM »
Clinton voters:

McCain 41%
Obama 33%
Would not vote 23%

Obama voters:

Clinton 71%
McCain 14%
Would not vote 11%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #27 on: May 20, 2008, 04:43:41 PM »
Historically at least, Paducah is Dixiecrat land. An Obama win there would be impressive.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #28 on: May 20, 2008, 04:47:05 PM »
What time can we expect some results from here?

Oh, and amusing Clinton voters numbers there.
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Alcon
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« Reply #29 on: May 20, 2008, 04:52:14 PM »
Who's going to be the nominee?

Kentucky: Obama 54%, Clinton 42%
Oregon: Obama 77%, Clinton 17%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #30 on: May 20, 2008, 05:04:34 PM »
KY looks like WV level blowout.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #31 on: May 20, 2008, 05:04:56 PM »
Folks, Kentucky knows how to count ballots quickly.  You'll get a lot further just going to the SOS site. 

http://electionresults.ky.gov/KyElectWeb/kes?AC=3&RF=0&AR=0&R=A01000000&L=1999&N=U.S.+PRESIDENT&RV=1040438&DV=1629845&TP=3545&TC=120
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #32 on: May 20, 2008, 05:10:09 PM »
Naturally, in early results from rural Eastern KY, Obama is getting massacred.
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Alcon
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« Reply #33 on: May 20, 2008, 05:11:08 PM »
In order to get to 54-42 thinking Obama will win (adjusting to 100% at 56-44), with the 2:1 margin among Clinton voters and an arbitrary-selected 8:1 margin among Obama voters, that would mean a Clinton margin of about 3:2.  That does not include Edwards voters.

In other words, the early exit poll results - depending a lot on how Edwards voters see the race - indicate a Clinton/Obama split closer to 3:2 than 2:1.

Now, adding in Edwards voters at 7% (arbitrary) and assigning them a 2:1 margin believing that Obama will win, the margin looks something like Clinton 54%, Obama 38%.

Do you believe that?  I don't.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #34 on: May 20, 2008, 05:11:52 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 20, 2008, 05:10:09 PM
Naturally, in early results from rural Eastern KY, Obama is getting massacred.

To put it lightly.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #35 on: May 20, 2008, 05:13:49 PM »
Fox exits:

http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exitsurvey-results-from-fox-news/

Supporting Clinton:

White women: 73%
White no college: 74%
“Experience” voters: 92%
Churchgoers: 65%

Among Clinton voters: Who will win the nomination?

Clinton: 64%
Obama: 34%

Among Clinton voters: If Obama is the nominee, will you support him over McCain?

Yes: 33%
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Alcon
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« Reply #36 on: May 20, 2008, 05:15:30 PM »
The Fox exits still seem to be adding up to a margin under 3:2 to me...huh.

Maybe my math is really wrong.  Maybe the exit polls are really wrong.

"Churchgoers"?  How totally vague.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #37 on: May 20, 2008, 05:19:34 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on May 20, 2008, 05:13:49 PM
Fox exits:

http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exitsurvey-results-from-fox-news/

Supporting Clinton:

White women: 73%
White no college: 74%
“Experience” voters: 92%
Churchgoers: 65%

Among Clinton voters: Who will win the nomination?

Clinton: 64%
Obama: 34%
Among Clinton voters: If Obama is the nominee, will you support him over McCain?

Yes: 33%


lolz
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: May 20, 2008, 05:24:18 PM »
CNN finally has their county map up.

Mostly slaughter, although Obama is carrying Fayette (Lexington) in very early returns.

Ron Paul is winning Bath County with some truly hilarious turnout rates.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #39 on: May 20, 2008, 05:29:01 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on May 20, 2008, 05:24:18 PM
CNN finally has their county map up.

Mostly slaughter, although Obama is carrying Fayette (Lexington) in very early returns.

Ron Paul is winning Bath County with some truly hilarious turnout rates.

I didn't know there were any Republicans in Bath County, actually.
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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: May 20, 2008, 05:31:23 PM »
JeffCo (Louisville) 29% in, Clinton +3
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #41 on: May 20, 2008, 05:31:49 PM »
5% Reporting

Clinton 52%
Obama 44%
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #42 on: May 20, 2008, 05:32:13 PM »
Clinton 52
Obama 44

With 5% in.

These numbers are fine. You can stop counting now Kentucky. Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #43 on: May 20, 2008, 05:34:04 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2008, 05:35:42 PM by Sam Spade »
The KY SOS site has 36.4% of Jefferson in and it is at 49-48 Obama.  I'm sure the racial voting is quite ugly there.
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Alcon
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« Reply #44 on: May 20, 2008, 05:34:10 PM »
Warren County (Bowling Green) is labeled as "Barren County" on the CNN Kentucky map

So elitist
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #45 on: May 20, 2008, 05:36:16 PM »
http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4896202&page=1

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Alcon
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« Reply #46 on: May 20, 2008, 05:37:25 PM »
1-in-4 voters being independent in a closed primary...? eh?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #47 on: May 20, 2008, 05:39:22 PM »
Now the way this should work is that Hillary will keep increasing her lead until some more precincts from Jefferson and Fayette come in.  and so on and so forth...
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JohnCA246
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« Reply #48 on: May 20, 2008, 05:40:06 PM »
what they say they are is probably more accurate than the party they registered as 20 years.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #49 on: May 20, 2008, 05:41:27 PM »
51-45 STOP COUNTING!!11
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